Solarburst

A case on Hellcase (discounts), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$2.64

Advertised RTP

88.01%

EV $2.32 from 172 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.98%

925 openings, odds method

Variance

6.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

77.98%±16.04925 openings

7 days

77.98%±16.04925 openings

30 days

77.98%±16.04925 openings

since tracking started

77.98%±16.04925 openings

61.5%78.0%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	925	77.98%±16.0	−1.1σ	odds
7d	925	77.98%±16.0	−1.1σ	odds
30d	925	77.98%±16.0	−1.1σ	odds
All	925	77.98%±16.0	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values172 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,548 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$198	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$192	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$167	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$164	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$151	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$150	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$142	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$140	0.4%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$135	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$133	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$132	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$131	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$131	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$129	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$129	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 14,286	$128	0.4%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$127	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$124	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$123	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$121	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$112	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 11,111	$92.48	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 11,111	$91.25	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$89.54	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$85.78	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$81.97	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$80.52	0.3%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$79.39	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$79.32	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$78.21	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$68.06	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$47.75	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$47.35	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$42.97	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$41.80	0.4%	2	0.3	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,762	$40.98	0.4%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,762	$40.20	0.4%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 4,762	$39.73	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$38.94	0.4%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$38.40	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$38.12	0.4%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 4,545	$38.05	0.4%	1	0.3	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$37.52	0.4%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,167	$36.80	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 4,167	$36.19	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 4,000	$33.76	0.4%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$31.76	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,571	$30.97	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,571	$30.49	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$29.46	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 3,125	$27.24	0.4%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 3,030	$26.10	0.4%	0	0.5	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,030	$25.70	0.4%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,941	$25.64	0.4%	1	0.5	—
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,941	$25.42	0.4%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,941	$25.42	0.4%	1	0.5	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 2,941	$25.07	0.4%	0	0.5	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$23.62	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$23.51	0.4%	2	0.6	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,703	$23.35	0.4%	2	0.6	—
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 2,632	$22.64	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$22.60	0.4%	2	0.6	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 2,632	$22.59	0.4%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$22.53	0.4%	0	0.6	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,632	$22.42	0.4%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,564	$21.84	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$21.80	0.4%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$20.56	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,381	$20.41	0.4%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$20.01	0.4%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 2,222	$19.21	0.4%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 2,174	$18.83	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$18.72	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$18.70	0.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$17.93	0.4%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,639	$14.24	0.4%	1	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 1,613	$13.80	0.4%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,587	$13.61	0.4%	0	1.0	—
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,538	$13.32	0.4%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,493	$12.90	0.4%	1	1.0	0.96×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,408	$12.11	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,408	$12.06	0.4%	3	1.1	2.73×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 1,389	$11.95	0.4%	2	1.1	1.79×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,351	$11.56	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,333	$11.38	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,316	$11.30	0.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,316	$11.28	0.4%	1	1.2	0.85×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,316	$11.26	0.4%	3	1.2	2.55×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,282	$11.05	0.4%	1	1.2	0.83×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,190	$10.22	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,149	$9.83	0.4%	1	1.3	0.74×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,099	$9.45	0.4%	2	1.4	1.42×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,064	$9.14	0.4%	1	1.5	0.69×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,053	$9.07	0.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,020	$8.75	0.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,000	$8.58	0.4%	2	1.5	1.29×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 962	$8.27	0.4%	1	1.6	0.62×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 917	$7.89	0.4%	1	1.7	0.59×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 917	$7.88	0.4%	1	1.7	0.59×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 917	$7.83	0.4%	2	1.7	1.19×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 840	$7.23	0.4%	2	1.8	1.09×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 833	$7.13	0.4%	3	1.9	1.61×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 813	$7.03	0.4%	3	1.9	1.58×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 813	$7.02	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 794	$6.81	0.4%	3	2.0	1.54×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 787	$6.75	0.4%	4	2.0	2.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 775	$6.64	0.4%	2	2.0	1.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 763	$6.59	0.4%	0	2.0	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 741	$6.38	0.4%	4	2.1	1.91×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 709	$6.10	0.4%	0	2.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 680	$5.82	0.4%	2	2.3	0.88×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 680	$5.82	0.4%	2	2.3	0.88×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 625	$5.36	0.4%	1	2.5	0.40×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 592	$5.07	0.4%	5	2.6	1.91×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 588	$5.06	0.4%	1	2.6	0.38×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 581	$4.99	0.4%	2	2.7	0.75×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 575	$4.96	0.4%	9	2.7	3.34×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 575	$4.93	0.4%	4	2.7	1.49×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 571	$4.91	0.4%	6	2.7	2.21×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 562	$4.83	0.4%	1	2.8	0.36×
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 559	$4.82	0.4%	2	2.8	0.72×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 556	$4.78	0.4%	3	2.8	1.08×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 556	$4.78	0.4%	5	2.8	1.79×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 505	$4.33	0.4%	3	3.1	0.98×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 495	$4.25	0.4%	3	3.1	0.96×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 493	$4.22	0.4%	5	3.1	1.59×
AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 488	$4.19	0.4%	8	3.2	2.52×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 483	$4.15	0.4%	4	3.2	1.25×
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 478	$4.10	0.4%	1	3.2	0.31×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 463	$3.98	0.4%	6	3.3	1.79×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 463	$3.96	0.4%	5	3.3	1.50×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 441	$3.78	0.4%	6	3.5	1.71×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 429	$3.67	0.4%	4	3.6	1.11×
P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 407	$3.50	0.4%	7	3.8	1.84×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 388	$3.33	0.4%	9	4.0	2.25×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 370	$3.18	0.4%	5	4.2	1.20×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 344	$2.95	0.4%	7	4.5	1.55×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 331	$2.84	0.4%	5	4.7	1.07×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 312	$2.68	0.4%	7	5.0	1.41×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 311	$2.66	0.4%	6	5.0	1.20×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 297	$2.55	0.4%	10	5.2	1.92×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 296	$2.54	0.4%	15	5.2	2.87×
P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 294	$2.52	0.4%	7	5.3	1.33×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 292	$2.50	0.4%	9	5.3	1.70×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 287	$2.46	0.4%	9	5.4	1.67×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 286	$2.45	0.4%	14	5.4	2.58×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 285	$2.45	0.4%	9	5.4	1.66×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 283	$2.43	0.4%	11	5.5	2.01×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 282	$2.42	0.4%	11	5.5	2.00×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 275	$2.36	0.4%	10	5.6	1.77×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 275	$2.36	0.4%	16	5.6	2.85×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 45	$2.20	2.1%	27	34.4	0.78×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 44	$2.13	2.1%	30	35.5	0.84×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 43	$2.12	2.1%	42	35.7	1.18×
Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$2.08	2.1%	27	36.4	0.74×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 43	$2.08	2.1%	30	36.4	0.82×
P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 37	$1.82	2.1%	33	41.6	0.79×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 37	$1.82	2.1%	45	41.6	1.08×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$1.64	2.1%	31	46.1	0.67×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 30	$1.45	2.1%	38	52.2	0.73×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$1.33	2.1%	46	56.9	0.81×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.20	2.1%	63	63.1	1.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 23	$1.14	2.1%	72	66.4	1.08×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 23	$1.13	2.1%	67	67.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$1.04	2.1%	79	72.8	1.09×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.96	2.1%	68	78.8	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$0.91	2.1%	95	83.2	1.14×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 18	$0.89	2.1%	71	85.0	0.83×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$0.86	2.1%	81	88.0	0.92×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$0.79	2.1%	86	95.8	0.90×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$0.78	2.1%	106	97.0	1.09×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$0.76	2.1%	90	99.6	0.90×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/solarburst, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertCAN POLAT$2.64$14053.09x16h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covertJustNao$2.64$13551.17x15h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetPuffff$2.64$0.960.36x46s

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetPuffff$2.64$0.960.36x1m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedPuffff$2.64$0.910.34x1m

Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedPuffff$2.64$22.428.49x2m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedTechN9ne$2.64$1.820.69x3m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalSwifTOne$2.64$0.780.30x9m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSwifTOne$2.64$1.040.39x9m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedSwifTOne$2.64$0.910.34x9m

Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedaleks0$2.64$2.430.92x10m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedmemi7$2.64$1.040.39x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$2.64	88.01%	172
10 Nov, 21:40 UTC	$2.64	88.03%	172

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%classified 3.1%Ancient 0.0%Covert 0.0%red 0.1%restricted 46.5%pink 0.8%#d32ee6 0.3%mil spec 2.7%Legendary 3.0%Rare 0.9%milspec 0.9%Mythical 25.1%#d32ce6 0.1%#8847ff 5.6%violet 5.4%Restricted 3.0%blue 2.3%best hit $140 (53.09x)