404: Soul Not Found

A case on Hellcase (halloween), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$0.50

Advertised RTP

87.99%

EV $0.44 from 100 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.97%

1,070 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

92.47%±11.36677 openings

30 days

84.97%±9.051,070 openings

since tracking started

84.97%±9.051,070 openings

75.5%90.0%104.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	677	92.47%±11.4	+0.8σ	odds
30d	1,070	84.97%±9.05	−0.7σ	odds
All	1,070	84.97%±9.05	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values100 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,080 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 1,282	$9.64	1.7%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,075	$8.11	1.7%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,020	$7.69	1.7%	2	1.1	1.89×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 714	$5.39	1.7%	4	1.5	2.65×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 645	$4.87	1.7%	2	1.7	1.19×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 617	$4.63	1.7%	2	1.7	1.14×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 549	$4.13	1.7%	0	2.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 538	$4.07	1.7%	1	2.0	0.50×
MAC-10 \| Palm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 485	$3.65	1.7%	0	2.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 348	$2.63	1.7%	2	3.1	0.65×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 310	$2.33	1.7%	4	3.5	1.15×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 300	$2.26	1.7%	2	3.6	0.56×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 297	$2.24	1.7%	6	3.6	1.65×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 285	$2.15	1.7%	2	3.8	0.53×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 242	$1.82	1.7%	3	4.5	0.67×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 236	$1.78	1.7%	7	4.6	1.53×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 235	$1.77	1.7%	3	4.6	0.65×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 192	$1.45	1.7%	2	5.6	0.36×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 192	$1.45	1.7%	11	5.6	1.96×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 187	$1.41	1.7%	7	5.8	1.21×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 179	$1.35	1.7%	2	6.0	0.33×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 176	$1.33	1.7%	9	6.1	1.47×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 176	$1.33	1.7%	5	6.1	0.82×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 170	$1.28	1.7%	2	6.4	0.31×
SG 553 \| Triarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 169	$1.27	1.7%	6	6.4	0.94×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 168	$1.27	1.7%	7	6.4	1.09×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 163	$1.23	1.7%	7	6.6	1.06×
FAMAS \| Colony (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 158	$1.19	1.7%	5	6.8	0.73×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 155	$1.17	1.7%	10	7.0	1.44×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 150	$1.13	1.7%	7	7.2	0.97×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 149	$1.12	1.7%	7	7.3	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 133	$1.00	1.7%	10	8.1	1.23×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 130	$0.98	1.7%	11	8.3	1.32×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 127	$0.96	1.7%	11	8.5	1.30×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 122	$0.92	1.7%	12	8.8	1.36×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 119	$0.90	1.7%	9	9.1	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 118	$0.89	1.7%	9	9.1	0.99×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 114	$0.86	1.7%	3	9.5	0.32×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 113	$0.85	1.7%	8	9.6	0.84×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 106	$0.80	1.7%	9	10.2	0.88×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 93	$0.70	1.7%	13	11.6	1.12×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 89	$0.67	1.7%	10	12.2	0.82×
Nova \| Sand Dune (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 86	$0.65	1.7%	10	12.5	0.80×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 82	$0.62	1.7%	20	13.1	1.52×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 69	$0.52	1.7%	13	15.7	0.83×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 68	$0.51	1.7%	23	16.0	1.44×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 68	$0.51	1.7%	16	16.0	1.00×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 66	$0.50	1.7%	17	16.3	1.04×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 62	$0.47	1.7%	8	17.3	0.46×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 60	$0.45	1.7%	9	18.1	0.50×
Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 340	$0.43	0.3%	5	3.2	1.57×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 317	$0.40	0.3%	1	3.4	0.29×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 270	$0.34	0.3%	2	4.0	0.50×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 269	$0.34	0.3%	3	4.0	0.75×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 261	$0.33	0.3%	2	4.1	0.48×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 261	$0.33	0.3%	2	4.1	0.48×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 253	$0.32	0.3%	5	4.3	1.17×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 238	$0.30	0.3%	6	4.5	1.32×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 230	$0.29	0.3%	7	4.7	1.49×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 229	$0.29	0.3%	7	4.7	1.49×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 230	$0.29	0.3%	6	4.7	1.28×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 206	$0.26	0.3%	0	5.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 206	$0.26	0.3%	7	5.2	1.33×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 198	$0.25	0.3%	8	5.5	1.47×
Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 198	$0.25	0.3%	10	5.5	1.83×
Tec-9 \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 190	$0.24	0.3%	5	5.7	0.88×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fubar (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 190	$0.24	0.3%	11	5.7	1.94×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 158	$0.20	0.3%	11	6.8	1.61×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 158	$0.20	0.3%	10	6.8	1.47×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 158	$0.20	0.3%	6	6.8	0.88×
USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 158	$0.20	0.3%	9	6.8	1.32×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 158	$0.20	0.3%	12	6.8	1.76×
MAC-10 \| Palm (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 158	$0.20	0.3%	8	6.8	1.17×
P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 158	$0.20	0.3%	7	6.8	1.03×
MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 142	$0.18	0.3%	3	7.6	0.40×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 127	$0.16	0.3%	7	8.5	0.82×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 127	$0.16	0.3%	6	8.5	0.70×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 103	$0.13	0.3%	18	10.5	1.72×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 103	$0.13	0.3%	8	10.5	0.76×
P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 103	$0.13	0.3%	13	10.5	1.24×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 95	$0.12	0.3%	9	11.4	0.79×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 95	$0.12	0.3%	9	11.4	0.79×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 95	$0.12	0.3%	7	11.4	0.62×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Minimal Wear)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 95	$0.12	0.3%	14	11.4	1.23×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 79	$0.10	0.3%	11	13.6	0.81×
Five-SeveN \| Scrawl (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 79	$0.10	0.3%	11	13.6	0.81×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 63	$0.08	0.3%	18	17.0	1.06×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Well-Worn)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 63	$0.08	0.3%	21	17.1	1.23×
Nova \| Sand Dune (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	1 in 63	$0.08	0.3%	27	17.0	1.58×
MP7 \| Motherboard (Field-Tested)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 48	$0.06	0.3%	24	22.7	1.06×
FAMAS \| Colony (Minimal Wear)weapon · #777777	1 in 48	$0.06	0.3%	24	22.7	1.06×
MAC-10 \| Palm (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 32	$0.04	0.3%	38	34.1	1.11×
MAC-10 \| Palm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 32	$0.04	0.3%	28	34.1	0.82×
MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 32	$0.04	0.3%	44	34.1	1.29×
FAMAS \| Colony (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 32	$0.04	0.3%	38	34.1	1.11×
FAMAS \| Colony (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 24	$0.03	0.3%	45	45.5	0.99×
FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 24	$0.03	0.3%	39	45.5	0.86×
Nova \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 24	$0.03	0.3%	37	45.5	0.81×
Nova \| Sand Dune (Well-Worn)weapon · consumer	1 in 24	$0.03	0.3%	39	45.5	0.86×
Nova \| Sand Dune (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 24	$0.03	0.3%	44	45.5	0.97×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/soul-not-found, 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specgrgavidakovic31$0.50$0.671.34x4d

Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumergrgavidakovic31$0.50$0.030.06x4d

Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerZAmoraHolly$0.50$0.030.06x4d

FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerZAmoraHolly$0.50$0.030.06x4d

Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specZAmoraHolly$0.50$0.290.58x4d

StatTrak™ MP9 | Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeZAmoraHolly$0.50$1.172.34x4d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecZAmoraHolly$0.50$0.130.26x4d

FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumercwell$0.50$0.030.06x4d

P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrialcwell$0.50$0.130.26x4d

MAC-10 | Palm (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialcwell$0.50$0.040.08x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$0.50	87.99%	100
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$0.50	88.00%	100
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$0.50	87.99%	100
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$0.50	88.00%	100
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$0.50	88.02%	100

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedRestricted 0.5%mil spec 9.0%#4b69ff 3.3%Mythical 3.6%restricted 5.4%#8847ff 5.7%industrial 12.9%violet 3.1%milspec 15.1%Mil Spec Grade 2.2%consumer 27.6%Rare 2.6%#87c7ff 5.8%blue 0.6%Mil Spec 0.6%#777777 2.1%best hit —