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Sport & Field Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$3.50
Advertised RTP
88.00%
EV $3.08 from 74 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.60%
543 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
36 openings · below min
7 days
98.64%±19.37445 openings
30 days
96.60%±17.47543 openings
since tracking started
96.60%±17.47543 openings
33.5%102.3%171.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h36102.25%±68.2—odds
7d44598.64%±19.4+1.1σodds
30d54396.60%±17.5+1.0σodds
All54396.60%±17.5+1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values74 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 543 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic1 in 100,000$2520.1%00.0—
M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic1 in 100,000$2250.1%00.0—
Glock-18 | AXIA (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 330$61.236.0%51.63.04×
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 184$34.126.0%13.00.34×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare1 in 142$26.396.0%63.81.57×
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 139$25.766.0%43.91.02×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 132$24.486.0%44.10.97×
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 130$24.166.0%44.20.96×
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 129$23.916.0%44.20.95×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 128$23.826.0%54.21.18×
Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 125$23.136.0%54.41.15×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 124$23.046.0%44.40.92×
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 102$18.976.0%45.30.75×
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 37$6.936.0%1114.50.76×
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 27$4.976.0%2420.31.18×
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 23$4.366.0%2323.10.99×
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 19$3.546.0%2628.50.91×
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 17$3.116.0%2232.40.68×
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 1,562$2.960.1%10.3—
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 1,471$2.770.1%00.4—
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 1,449$2.740.1%100.4—
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 1,449$2.710.1%00.4—
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 1,429$2.660.1%00.4—
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 1,408$2.640.1%00.4—
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 1,389$2.600.1%10.4—
Five-SeveN | Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 1,351$2.500.1%00.4—
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 1,333$2.480.1%00.4—
Nova | Yorkshire (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 885$1.650.1%10.6—
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 763$1.430.1%00.7—
SSG 08 | Zeno (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 625$1.170.1%00.9—
P250 | Small Game (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 508$0.950.1%11.10.93×
SSG 08 | Zeno (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 444$0.830.1%01.20.00×
FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 422$0.790.1%11.30.78×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 379$0.710.1%01.40.00×
Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 364$0.680.1%31.52.01×
P250 | Small Game (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 256$0.480.1%12.10.47×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 235$0.440.1%52.32.17×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 224$0.420.1%62.42.48×
USP-S | Alpine Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Rare1 in 219$0.410.1%22.50.81×
SSG 08 | Zeno (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 203$0.380.1%12.70.37×
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 203$0.380.1%22.70.75×
SSG 08 | Zeno (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 198$0.370.1%12.70.36×
SSG 08 | Zeno (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 193$0.360.1%12.80.35×
Nova | Yorkshire (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 192$0.360.1%32.81.06×
P250 | Small Game (Field-Tested)weapon · 11 in 187$0.350.1%32.91.03×
P250 | Small Game (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 187$0.350.1%12.90.34×
Nova | Yorkshire (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 176$0.330.1%13.10.32×
Nova | Yorkshire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 176$0.330.1%13.10.32×
P250 | Small Game (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 176$0.330.1%73.12.27×
MAG-7 | Wildwood (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 118$0.220.1%34.60.65×
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 91$0.170.1%56.00.84×
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 80$0.150.1%56.80.74×
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 75$0.140.1%107.31.38×
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight1 in 69$0.130.1%147.81.79×
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 69$0.130.1%77.80.90×
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue1 in 64$0.120.1%78.50.83×
FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 64$0.120.1%88.50.95×
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d91 in 64$0.120.1%118.51.30×
MAG-7 | Wildwood (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 48$0.090.1%1111.30.97×
MP5-SD | Savannah Halftone (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 48$0.090.1%811.30.71×
MAG-7 | Wildwood (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 43$0.080.1%1612.71.26×
MAG-7 | Wildwood (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 43$0.080.1%2612.72.05×
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 43$0.080.1%1112.70.87×
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 43$0.080.1%1312.71.02×
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 43$0.080.1%1812.71.42×
MAG-7 | Wildwood (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 37$0.070.1%1614.51.10×
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d91 in 37$0.070.1%1514.51.03×
MP5-SD | Savannah Halftone (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 37$0.070.1%1214.50.83×
FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue1 in 32$0.060.1%2516.91.48×
FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 32$0.060.1%1116.90.65×
FAMAS | Half Sleeve (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 21$0.040.1%1625.40.63×
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 21$0.040.1%3125.41.22×
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 21$0.040.1%2125.40.83×
MP5-SD | Savannah Halftone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 21$0.040.1%1825.40.71×
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/sport-and-field-collection, 11 Nov, 15:56 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalVimeR$3.50$4.361.25x
AK-47 | Olive Polycam (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue$3.50$0.120.03x
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Factory New)weapon · industrialValiMondiaLLU$3.50$0.130.04x
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythicalchbiljucsyz$3.50$4.361.25x
MAG-7 | Wildwood (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialBierBerg$3.50$0.090.03x
Glock-18 | AXIA (Minimal Wear)weapon · rarevagaidalgoi$3.50$26.397.54x
MAG-7 | Wildwood (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialBoum Boum 7$3.50$0.070.02x
MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)weapon · restrictedBoum Boum 7$3.50$6.931.98x
UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommonBoum Boum 7$3.50$3.110.89x
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialBoum Boum 7$3.50$0.040.01x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC$3.5088.00%74
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC$3.5088.00%74
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC$3.5088.00%74
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC$3.5088.00%74
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC$3.5088.00%74
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC$3.5088.00%74
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC$3.5088.00%74
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC$3.5087.99%74
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC$3.5088.01%74
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC$3.5088.00%74
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.5%epic 0.0%rare 5.5%classified 1.5%restricted 3.8%violet 9.4%Mythical 4.3%uncommon 6.0%#8847ff 0.1%#4b69ff 1.3%blue 0.8%milspec 4.3%industrial 46.8%Rare 1.0%Uncommon 3.2%#5e98d9 5.6%blueLight 1.4%light blue 4.7%best hit —