Spy Tech Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$6.00

Advertised RTP

88.01%

EV $5.28 from 85 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.68%

255 openings, odds method

Variance

5.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 16

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

31 openings · below min

7 days

75.81%±37.19163 openings

30 days

80.68%±29.83255 openings

since tracking started

80.68%±29.83255 openings

0.5%86.0%171.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	31	85.92%±84.8	—	odds
7d	163	75.81%±37.2	−0.6σ	odds
30d	255	80.68%±29.8	−0.5σ	odds
All	255	80.68%±29.8	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values85 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 255 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$748	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 100,000	$656	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$381	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 100,000	$327	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 100,000	$220	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 100,000	$204	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$191	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$155	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 415	$118	5.4%	1	0.6	—
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 386	$110	5.4%	2	0.7	—
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 361	$103	5.4%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 333	$95.26	5.4%	0	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 213	$60.75	5.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 209	$59.55	5.4%	1	1.2	0.82×
AWP \| Black Box (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 107	$30.60	5.4%	2	2.4	0.84×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 105	$30.02	5.4%	2	2.4	0.82×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 105	$29.90	5.4%	2	2.4	0.82×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 84	$23.99	5.4%	4	3.0	1.32×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$23.72	5.4%	3	3.1	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 82	$23.50	5.4%	1	3.1	0.32×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 78	$22.27	5.4%	4	3.3	1.22×
AWP \| Black Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$11.97	5.4%	4	6.1	0.66×
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$11.97	5.4%	7	6.1	1.15×
Nova \| Smart Gun (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$10.77	5.4%	8	6.8	1.18×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 31	$8.86	5.4%	6	8.2	0.73×
AWP \| Black Box (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$6.28	5.4%	10	11.6	0.86×
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,703	$5.16	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Nova \| Smart Gun (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,703	$5.14	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Black Box (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,326	$4.36	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Black Box (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,041	$3.96	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Nova \| Smart Gun (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,887	$3.65	0.0%	0	0.1	—
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 1,852	$3.50	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,538	$2.92	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Nova \| Smart Gun (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,515	$2.88	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Nova \| Smart Gun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,515	$2.87	0.0%	0	0.2	—
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,429	$2.75	0.0%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,408	$2.70	0.0%	0	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,370	$2.64	0.0%	0	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,333	$2.53	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 990	$1.90	0.0%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 840	$1.61	0.0%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| Corp Defense (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 667	$1.27	0.0%	1	0.4	—
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 621	$1.19	0.0%	0	0.4	—
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 592	$1.13	0.0%	1	0.4	—
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 578	$1.10	0.0%	1	0.4	—
MP7 \| Base-2 (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 559	$1.07	0.0%	0	0.5	—
Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 524	$1.00	0.0%	1	0.5	—
SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 483	$0.92	0.0%	1	0.5	—
XM1014 \| Black Site (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 467	$0.89	0.0%	1	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 278	$0.53	0.0%	2	0.9	—
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 262	$0.50	0.0%	0	1.0	—
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 262	$0.50	0.0%	1	1.0	—
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 247	$0.47	0.0%	2	1.0	1.94×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 199	$0.38	0.0%	4	1.3	3.12×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 194	$0.37	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 189	$0.36	0.0%	2	1.4	1.48×
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 189	$0.36	0.0%	2	1.4	1.48×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 183	$0.35	0.0%	1	1.4	0.72×
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 173	$0.33	0.0%	1	1.5	0.68×
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 173	$0.33	0.0%	1	1.5	0.68×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 173	$0.33	0.0%	2	1.5	1.35×
MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 115	$0.22	0.0%	3	2.2	1.36×
FAMAS \| Corp Defense (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 105	$0.20	0.0%	1	2.4	0.41×
MP7 \| Base-2 (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 84	$0.16	0.0%	4	3.0	1.32×
XM1014 \| Black Site (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 84	$0.16	0.0%	1	3.0	0.33×
Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 84	$0.16	0.0%	3	3.0	0.99×
SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 84	$0.16	0.0%	0	3.0	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 47	$0.09	0.0%	4	5.4	0.74×
FAMAS \| Corp Defense (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 42	$0.08	0.0%	4	6.1	0.66×
MP7 \| Base-2 (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 42	$0.08	0.0%	4	6.1	0.66×
XM1014 \| Black Site (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 42	$0.08	0.0%	7	6.1	1.15×
Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 42	$0.08	0.0%	6	6.1	0.99×
SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 42	$0.08	0.0%	10	6.1	1.64×
MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 31	$0.06	0.0%	9	8.1	1.11×
MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 31	$0.06	0.0%	14	8.1	1.73×
FAMAS \| Corp Defense (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 31	$0.06	0.0%	6	8.1	0.74×
MP7 \| Base-2 (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 31	$0.06	0.0%	14	8.1	1.73×
MP7 \| Base-2 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 31	$0.06	0.0%	11	8.1	1.36×
Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 31	$0.06	0.0%	7	8.1	0.86×
Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 31	$0.06	0.0%	4	8.1	0.49×
FAMAS \| Corp Defense (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 21	$0.04	0.0%	10	12.2	0.82×
XM1014 \| Black Site (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 21	$0.04	0.0%	20	12.2	1.64×
XM1014 \| Black Site (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 21	$0.04	0.0%	14	12.2	1.15×
SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 21	$0.04	0.0%	6	12.2	0.49×
SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 21	$0.04	0.0%	11	12.2	0.90×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/spy-tech-collection, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Dark Operative (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecLEON S. KENNEDY$6.00$0.380.06x2h

Tec-9 | Perimeter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialLEON S. KENNEDY$6.00$0.080.01x2h

AWP | Black Box (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedfuzo ❤L$6.00$6.281.05x5h

Tec-9 | Perimeter (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialfuzo ❤L$6.00$0.080.01x5h

Tec-9 | Perimeter (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialfuzo ❤L$6.00$0.060.01x5h

MAC-10 | Video Cam (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialcmy$6.00$0.090.02x7h

SCAR-20 | Arctic Camo Panels (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialcmy$6.00$0.080.01x7h

MP9 | Spy Prototype (Well-Worn)weapon · milspeccmy$6.00$0.360.06x7h

USP-S | Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkcmy$6.00$30.025.00x7h

USP-S | Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkcmy$6.00$30.025.00x8h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	85
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$6.00	87.97%	85
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$6.00	87.43%	85
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$6.00	87.99%	85
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$6.00	87.99%	85
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$6.00	87.98%	85
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$6.00	87.99%	85
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$6.00	87.98%	85
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	85
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	85
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$6.00	87.98%	85

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%Ancient 0.0%red 0.6%classified 1.4%pink 6.8%Restricted 0.9%restricted 12.4%blue 4.8%#8847ff 0.1%violet 0.1%milspec 3.2%Rare 1.2%industrial 61.0%#4b69ff 0.7%#5e98d9 6.8%best hit —