Stiletto

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$300.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $264.00 from 137 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.03%

10 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1 openings · below min

7 days

8 openings · below min

30 days

10 openings · below min

since tracking started

10 openings · below min

74.0%162.5%251.0%

Small sample. 10 openings and 3.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1	172.51%±77.7	—	odds
7d	8	102.95%±27.5	—	odds
30d	10	99.03%±24.5	—	odds
All	10	99.03%±24.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values137 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$904	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 336	$757	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 318	$718	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 306	$691	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 282	$636	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 268	$604	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 266	$599	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 251	$565	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 249	$561	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 239	$539	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 231	$521	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 230	$519	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 229	$518	0.9%	1	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 223	$502	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 222	$499	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 221	$497	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 219	$494	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 217	$488	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 215	$485	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 212	$479	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 212	$478	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 208	$469	0.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 187	$422	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 183	$414	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 182	$411	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 181	$408	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 179	$403	0.9%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 178	$401	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$395	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 174	$392	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 173	$389	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 170	$384	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 167	$376	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 165	$372	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 164	$371	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 163	$367	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 161	$364	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 156	$351	0.9%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 154	$347	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 152	$342	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 150	$338	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 147	$332	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 146	$329	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 145	$327	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 145	$326	0.9%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 144	$325	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 143	$323	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 142	$321	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 140	$315	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 139	$315	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 139	$314	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 138	$312	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 138	$310	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 135	$305	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 127	$287	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 127	$286	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 126	$284	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 125	$282	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 123	$276	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 122	$275	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 121	$273	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 121	$272	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 118	$266	0.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 159	$263	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 158	$261	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 158	$260	0.6%	1	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 157	$260	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 157	$259	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 153	$252	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 153	$252	0.6%	1	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 152	$251	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 152	$250	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 152	$250	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 150	$247	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 148	$245	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 146	$240	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 144	$238	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 143	$236	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 143	$236	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 142	$234	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 142	$234	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 140	$231	0.6%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 137	$226	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 136	$224	0.6%	1	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 135	$223	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 135	$223	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 132	$217	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 130	$214	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 130	$214	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 129	$213	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 127	$209	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 126	$208	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 125	$207	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 125	$206	0.6%	1	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert	1 in 123	$203	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 121	$200	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 121	$200	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 119	$196	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 118	$195	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 118	$194	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 117	$193	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 116	$191	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 115	$190	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 115	$190	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 114	$188	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 114	$188	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 114	$188	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 112	$185	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 111	$183	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 109	$180	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 109	$179	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 108	$178	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 108	$177	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 106	$174	0.6%	1	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 105	$174	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 105	$173	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 105	$173	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 104	$171	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 104	$171	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 102	$168	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 101	$166	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 98	$162	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 97	$160	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 97	$160	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 96	$158	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 96	$157	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 94	$156	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 94	$156	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 94	$155	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 94	$155	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 92	$152	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 92	$152	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 92	$151	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 91	$150	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 90	$149	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 90	$148	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 88	$145	0.6%	0	0.1	—

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/stiletto, 11 Nov, 15:56 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeBy-twin$300$5181.73x8h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeBy-twin$300$5181.73x8h

★ Stiletto Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifevor_v_tyurme$300$2310.77x1d

★ Stiletto Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife$300$1570.52x2d

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife지금 뭐 보고 있어?$300$2060.69x3d

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife지금 뭐 보고 있어?$300$2520.84x3d

★ Stiletto Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · covert지금 뭐 보고 있어?$300$4031.34x3d

★ Stiletto Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife지금 뭐 보고 있어?$300$3511.17x3d

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifevor_v_tyurme$300$3531.18x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$300	88.00%	137
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$300	88.00%	137
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$300	88.00%	137
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$300	88.00%	137
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$300	88.00%	137
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$300	88.00%	137
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$300	88.00%	137
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$300	88.00%	137
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$300	88.00%	137
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$300	88.23%	137
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$300	88.00%	137
3 Nov, 05:35 UTC	$300	88.00%	137

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 71.1%covert 24.0%Covert 1.2%#EB4B4B 1.1%sunny 0.5%Immortal 0.5%gold 1.6%best hit $518 (1.73x)