Talon Knives

A case on Hellcase (knives), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$450.00

Advertised RTP

88.00%

EV $396.00 from 117 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.17%

6 openings, odds method

Variance

0.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

36.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

4 openings · below min

30 days

6 openings · below min

since tracking started

6 openings · below min

40.5%75.5%110.5%

Small sample. 6 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	4	75.59%±34.3	—	odds
30d	6	82.17%±27.9	—	odds
All	6	82.17%±27.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values117 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$1,518	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 258	$977	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 254	$963	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 250	$947	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 234	$888	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 221	$841	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 210	$796	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 206	$779	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$760	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 193	$734	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 193	$734	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 186	$705	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 183	$694	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 180	$682	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 179	$680	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 171	$649	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 164	$623	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 162	$615	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 162	$614	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 160	$608	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 153	$580	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 153	$580	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 152	$577	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 147	$559	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 147	$557	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 146	$553	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 145	$548	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 141	$534	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 131	$498	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 129	$488	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 128	$487	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 127	$483	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 126	$479	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 125	$475	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 125	$474	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 124	$470	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 123	$465	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 120	$457	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 120	$457	1.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 120	$454	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 118	$446	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 117	$444	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 117	$444	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 117	$443	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 117	$443	1.0%	1	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 117	$443	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 116	$440	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 115	$435	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 114	$433	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 111	$419	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 110	$418	1.0%	1	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 109	$413	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 105	$400	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 105	$398	1.0%	2	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 104	$397	1.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 130	$392	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 130	$392	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 129	$391	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 127	$384	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 125	$379	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 123	$370	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 122	$368	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 121	$365	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 118	$358	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 117	$355	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 117	$353	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 116	$352	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 116	$349	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 114	$346	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 113	$342	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 112	$340	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 112	$337	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 111	$336	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 111	$336	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 110	$332	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 110	$332	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 110	$331	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 108	$327	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 107	$323	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 106	$319	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 105	$319	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 105	$318	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 104	$316	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 103	$312	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn)knife · Covert	1 in 103	$310	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 101	$305	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 101	$304	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$301	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 98	$297	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 98	$296	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 98	$295	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 97	$294	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 97	$294	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 97	$292	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 95	$288	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 95	$286	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 94	$283	0.8%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 93	$281	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 93	$281	0.8%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 93	$281	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 93	$280	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 92	$278	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 92	$278	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 91	$276	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 89	$269	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 89	$269	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 88	$265	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 88	$265	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 87	$262	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 86	$260	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 86	$260	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 85	$256	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 84	$253	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 83	$251	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 82	$249	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 80	$241	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 75	$228	0.8%	0	0.1	—

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/talon, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife!DANNCHE$450$2830.63x1d

★ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeber$450$2820.63x6d

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeber$450$3980.88x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$450	88.00%	117
10 Nov, 15:35 UTC	$450	88.00%	117
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$450	88.00%	117
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$450	88.00%	117
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$450	88.00%	117
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$450	88.00%	117
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$450	88.00%	117
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$450	88.00%	117
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$450	88.00%	117
4 Nov, 08:59 UTC	$450	87.74%	117
3 Nov, 15:54 UTC	$450	88.00%	117
3 Nov, 05:35 UTC	$450	88.00%	117

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 64.2%epic 2.4%Covert 6.4%covert 19.1%Immortal 0.5%gold 0.7%#EB4B4B 6.8%best hit —