The World Misplaced

A case on Hellcase (halloween), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$6.00

Advertised RTP

87.99%

EV $5.28 from 128 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.81%

278 openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

79.44%±24.23176 openings

30 days

77.81%±19.33278 openings

since tracking started

77.81%±19.33278 openings

54.5%79.5%104.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	176	79.44%±24.2	−0.7σ	odds
30d	278	77.81%±19.3	−1.0σ	odds
All	278	77.81%±19.3	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values128 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 278 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 12,500	$526	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$293	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,545	$189	0.8%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$144	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,326	$98.80	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 2,083	$87.76	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,087	$45.35	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,064	$44.78	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,020	$42.68	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,000	$41.70	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 980	$41.23	0.8%	1	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 980	$40.96	0.8%	1	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 971	$40.85	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 962	$40.40	0.8%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 943	$39.69	0.8%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 935	$39.21	0.8%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 870	$36.58	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 862	$36.12	0.8%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 775	$32.47	0.8%	1	0.4	—
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 694	$29.13	0.8%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 690	$29.00	0.8%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 637	$26.63	0.8%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 602	$25.27	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 595	$24.99	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 588	$24.71	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 581	$24.42	0.8%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 565	$23.73	0.8%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 562	$23.58	0.8%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 559	$23.41	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 556	$23.28	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 521	$21.87	0.8%	0	0.5	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 503	$21.08	0.8%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 503	$21.02	0.8%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 472	$19.78	0.8%	1	0.6	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 450	$18.87	0.8%	2	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 446	$18.78	0.8%	0	0.6	—
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 433	$18.17	0.8%	2	0.6	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 427	$17.93	0.8%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 420	$17.68	0.8%	1	0.7	—
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 412	$17.27	0.8%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 397	$16.69	0.8%	3	0.7	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 382	$15.97	0.8%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 342	$14.36	0.8%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 333	$13.98	0.8%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 331	$13.92	0.8%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 332	$13.92	0.8%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 306	$12.82	0.8%	0	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 303	$12.72	0.8%	0	0.9	—
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 303	$12.71	0.8%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 299	$12.54	0.8%	1	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 292	$12.24	0.8%	0	1.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 282	$11.84	0.8%	2	1.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 279	$11.67	0.8%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 276	$11.59	0.8%	1	1.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 267	$11.21	0.8%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 261	$10.96	0.8%	1	1.1	0.94×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 251	$10.50	0.8%	2	1.1	1.80×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 239	$10.04	0.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 226	$9.50	0.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 226	$9.46	0.8%	2	1.2	1.62×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 219	$9.17	0.8%	6	1.3	4.72×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 217	$9.11	0.8%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 215	$9.00	0.8%	1	1.3	0.77×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 208	$8.73	0.8%	1	1.3	0.75×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 207	$8.68	0.8%	2	1.3	1.49×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 207	$8.67	0.8%	2	1.3	1.49×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 206	$8.64	0.8%	3	1.4	2.22×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 202	$8.49	0.8%	1	1.4	0.73×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 202	$8.46	0.8%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 202	$8.46	0.8%	1	1.4	0.73×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 195	$8.15	0.8%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 193	$8.07	0.8%	2	1.4	1.39×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 191	$8.03	0.8%	1	1.5	0.69×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 190	$7.98	0.8%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 187	$7.84	0.8%	0	1.5	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 177	$7.42	0.8%	3	1.6	1.91×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 176	$7.37	0.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 175	$7.33	0.8%	1	1.6	0.63×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 174	$7.29	0.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 173	$7.27	0.8%	1	1.6	0.62×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 173	$7.25	0.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 172	$7.23	0.8%	2	1.6	1.24×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 171	$7.18	0.8%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 170	$7.15	0.8%	1	1.6	0.61×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 169	$7.07	0.8%	2	1.6	1.21×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 165	$6.91	0.8%	1	1.7	0.59×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 161	$6.77	0.8%	2	1.7	1.16×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 161	$6.75	0.8%	2	1.7	1.16×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 159	$6.66	0.8%	2	1.8	1.14×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 150	$6.30	0.8%	1	1.9	0.54×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 145	$6.06	0.8%	2	1.9	1.04×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 141	$5.91	0.8%	2	2.0	1.01×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 139	$5.85	0.8%	2	2.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 139	$5.82	0.8%	0	2.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 132	$5.21	0.7%	1	2.1	0.48×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 122	$4.80	0.7%	2	2.3	0.88×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 121	$4.74	0.7%	0	2.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 119	$4.69	0.7%	1	2.3	0.43×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 119	$4.66	0.7%	0	2.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 118	$4.65	0.7%	5	2.4	2.13×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 118	$4.65	0.7%	2	2.4	0.85×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 117	$4.61	0.7%	5	2.4	2.11×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 115	$4.52	0.7%	5	2.4	2.07×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 114	$4.49	0.7%	1	2.4	0.41×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 113	$4.43	0.7%	5	2.5	2.03×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 112	$4.42	0.7%	2	2.5	0.81×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$4.24	0.7%	3	2.6	1.16×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$4.10	0.7%	5	2.7	1.88×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 104	$4.08	0.7%	2	2.7	0.75×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 103	$4.05	0.7%	2	2.7	0.74×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 102	$3.99	0.7%	3	2.7	1.10×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$3.93	0.7%	6	2.8	2.16×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 98	$3.87	0.7%	2	2.8	0.71×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 95	$3.72	0.7%	5	2.9	1.70×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 79	$3.10	0.7%	2	3.5	0.57×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 76	$2.99	0.7%	2	3.7	0.55×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 71	$2.79	0.7%	4	3.9	1.02×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$2.30	0.7%	5	4.8	1.05×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.98	0.7%	7	5.5	1.27×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 48	$1.89	0.7%	4	5.8	0.69×
P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 37	$1.46	0.7%	9	7.5	1.20×
P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$1.32	0.7%	10	8.3	1.21×
P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$1.16	0.7%	9	9.4	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$0.97	0.7%	10	11.3	0.89×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$0.88	0.7%	19	12.4	1.53×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$0.65	0.7%	17	16.8	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$0.47	0.7%	17	23.3	0.73×
MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3	1 in 12	$0.46	0.7%	32	23.8	1.35×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/the-world-misplaced, 6 Nov, 11:25 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedmajlo$6.00$0.650.11x4d

StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedkick : Twillv98$6.00$6.771.13x4d

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkick : Twillv98$6.00$0.880.15x4d

P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restrictedeZclap$6.00$2.300.38x5d

USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedcalm and collected$6.00$3.870.65x5d

MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkEric Zemmour$6.00$8.641.44x5d

MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Well-Worn)weapon · violetMini_Ours51$6.00$0.470.08x5d

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedST3R0ID$6.00$0.650.11x5d

Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedTOTORIINA-1$6.00$11.671.95x5d

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedapaciiiiiii$6.00$0.650.11x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$6.00	87.99%	128
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$6.00	87.97%	128
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$6.00	88.01%	128
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$6.00	88.03%	128
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$6.00	88.00%	128

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 8.5%restricted 36.7%classified 17.0%Legendary 5.2%Classified 2.1%Restricted 2.2%Mythical 1.8%pink 6.6%#8847ff 4.8%violet 12.9%#d32ee6 2.2%best hit —