Train 2025 Collection

A case on Hellcase (armory), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$5.00

Advertised RTP

87.99%

EV $4.40 from 74 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.20%

210 openings, odds method

Variance

3.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

28 openings · below min

7 days

89.46%±30.08153 openings

30 days

88.20%±25.75210 openings

since tracking started

88.20%±25.75210 openings

58.5%140.5%222.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	28	151.64%±70.1	—	odds
7d	153	89.46%±30.1	+0.1σ	odds
30d	210	88.20%±25.8	+0.0σ	odds
All	210	88.20%±25.8	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values74 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 210 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| LongDog (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 100,000	$467	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100,000	$215	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 100,000	$161	0.0%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 100,000	$160	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 305	$72.83	5.4%	1	0.7	—
AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 279	$66.53	5.4%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| LongDog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 179	$42.84	5.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 173	$41.37	5.4%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 168	$40.02	5.4%	2	1.3	1.60×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 149	$35.50	5.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 92	$22.08	5.4%	2	2.3	0.88×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 74	$17.65	5.4%	6	2.8	2.11×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 71	$17.01	5.4%	3	3.0	1.02×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 59	$14.20	5.4%	6	3.5	1.70×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 50	$11.94	5.4%	6	4.2	1.43×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 47	$11.18	5.4%	6	4.5	1.34×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 45	$10.73	5.4%	4	4.7	0.86×
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 42	$9.98	5.4%	5	5.0	0.99×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 32	$7.67	5.4%	6	6.5	0.92×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 30	$7.25	5.4%	8	6.9	1.16×
MP9 \| Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$6.64	5.4%	4	7.6	0.53×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 24	$5.77	5.4%	5	8.7	0.57×
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 2,083	$3.48	0.0%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,961	$3.31	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 1,724	$2.96	0.0%	1	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 1,429	$2.42	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 1,370	$2.34	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 1,299	$2.21	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 1,087	$1.84	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 1,087	$1.84	0.0%	0	0.2	—
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 990	$1.68	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical	1 in 971	$1.66	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 901	$1.54	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 885	$1.49	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 794	$1.35	0.0%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 769	$1.31	0.0%	0	0.3	—
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 746	$1.27	0.0%	1	0.3	—
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 571	$0.97	0.0%	1	0.4	—
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 465	$0.79	0.0%	0	0.5	—
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 465	$0.79	0.0%	1	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 242	$0.41	0.0%	0	0.9	—
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 177	$0.30	0.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 171	$0.29	0.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 165	$0.28	0.0%	1	1.3	0.79×
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 165	$0.28	0.0%	1	1.3	0.79×
Galil AR \| Green Apple (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 165	$0.28	0.0%	2	1.3	1.57×
CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 153	$0.26	0.0%	2	1.4	1.46×
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 141	$0.24	0.0%	0	1.5	0.00×
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 141	$0.24	0.0%	3	1.5	2.02×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 136	$0.23	0.0%	1	1.5	0.65×
FAMAS \| 2A2F (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 130	$0.22	0.0%	2	1.6	1.23×
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 124	$0.21	0.0%	2	1.7	1.18×
XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 124	$0.21	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 124	$0.21	0.0%	2	1.7	1.18×
Nova \| Rain Station (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 118	$0.20	0.0%	1	1.8	0.56×
P250 \| Constructivist (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 106	$0.18	0.0%	3	2.0	1.51×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 83	$0.14	0.0%	1	2.5	0.39×
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 83	$0.14	0.0%	2	2.5	0.79×
Galil AR \| Green Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 53	$0.09	0.0%	5	4.0	1.26×
Galil AR \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 53	$0.09	0.0%	6	4.0	1.51×
Nova \| Rain Station (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 47	$0.08	0.0%	8	4.5	1.80×
CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 47	$0.08	0.0%	5	4.5	1.12×
CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 41	$0.07	0.0%	7	5.1	1.37×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 35	$0.06	0.0%	2	5.9	0.34×
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 35	$0.06	0.0%	1	5.9	0.17×
P250 \| Constructivist (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 35	$0.06	0.0%	7	5.9	1.18×
CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 35	$0.06	0.0%	7	5.9	1.18×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 24	$0.04	0.0%	9	8.9	1.01×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 24	$0.04	0.0%	4	8.9	0.45×
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 24	$0.04	0.0%	11	8.9	1.23×
P90 \| Straight Dimes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 24	$0.04	0.0%	10	8.9	1.12×
Nova \| Rain Station (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 24	$0.04	0.0%	12	8.9	1.35×
P250 \| Constructivist (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 24	$0.04	0.0%	6	8.9	0.67×
CZ75-Auto \| Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 18	$0.03	0.0%	17	11.9	1.43×

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/train-2025-collection, 11 Nov, 09:51 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Rain Station (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9♛¨.M5.¨♛$5.00$0.040.01x12h

P90 | Straight Dimes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9T9$5.00$0.040.01x13h

CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9INNNNho$5.00$0.030.01x14h

Galil AR | Green Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialn0thy^$5.00$0.090.02x15h

P90 | Straight Dimes (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9n0thy^$5.00$0.040.01x15h

MP9 | Latte Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonMatterHorn$5.00$7.681.54x16h

MP9 | Latte Rush (Factory New)weapon · rareManiek_MTX$5.00$72.8314.57x19h

P250 | Constructivist (Minimal Wear)weapon · #5e98d9N'Vico$5.00$0.060.01x19h

Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommonN'Vico$5.00$17.863.57x19h

P90 | Straight Dimes (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9N'Vico$5.00$0.040.01x19h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.99%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 09:51 UTC	$5.00	87.99%	74
10 Nov, 09:02 UTC	$5.00	88.00%	74
9 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$5.00	87.99%	74
8 Nov, 13:32 UTC	$5.00	87.98%	74
7 Nov, 12:18 UTC	$5.00	87.99%	74
6 Nov, 11:25 UTC	$5.00	87.99%	74
5 Nov, 10:45 UTC	$5.00	88.00%	74
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC	$5.00	87.99%	74
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC	$5.00	87.98%	74
2 Nov, 21:49 UTC	$5.00	87.99%	74

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 0.6%restricted 0.0%rare 1.8%Ancient 0.6%Legendary 2.8%pink 0.7%uncommon 10.8%#8847ff 4.8%Classified 2.0%classified 3.6%Mythical 4.3%#4b69ff 5.5%Rare 0.3%violet 0.4%industrial 15.1%blue 2.3%milspec 0.9%#5e98d9 43.6%best hit —