Volksfest

A case on Hellcase (germany-cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price
$8.00
Advertised RTP
88.00%
EV $7.04 from 129 items
Observed RTP, 30d
—
no counted openings
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d0———
30d0———
All0———
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values129 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 16,667$5690.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 14,286$4430.4%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 8,333$2740.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 8,333$2530.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,143$2280.5%00.0—
★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 6,250$2090.5%00.0—
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 6,667$2080.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1950.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1910.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1830.5%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 5,556$1740.4%00.0—
★ Ursus Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 5,263$1710.5%00.0—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 4,762$1590.5%00.0—
AK-47 | Jaguar (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 4,762$1500.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,704$1200.5%00.0—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 3,571$1180.5%00.0—
★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 3,571$1160.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,571$1130.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Jaguar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 3,448$1100.5%00.0—
★ Nomad Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal1 in 3,448$1100.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,333$1090.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,333$1080.5%00.0—
AK-47 | Jaguar (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 3,125$1040.5%00.0—
AUG | Chameleon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 3,226$1020.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 3,125$99.470.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 3,030$98.550.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 3,030$98.350.5%00.0—
AUG | Chameleon (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 3,030$98.160.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,941$95.980.5%00.0—
AUG | Chameleon (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 2,778$89.990.5%00.0—
M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,778$88.240.5%00.0—
AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,703$87.410.5%00.0—
AUG | Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,500$80.250.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,439$80.190.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,439$79.280.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 2,326$75.230.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 2,326$74.660.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,174$71.090.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,128$68.810.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 2,128$68.530.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 2,083$66.880.5%00.0—
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$64.640.5%00.0—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$63.540.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,724$55.550.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,351$43.490.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 1,351$43.450.5%00.0—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 1,250$40.760.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare1 in 1,250$40.390.5%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 1,220$39.520.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,136$36.750.5%00.0—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 1,111$35.960.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,111$35.820.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,087$35.390.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 1,075$34.640.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,075$34.600.5%00.0—
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,053$33.780.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,042$33.510.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 855$27.730.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 806$26.140.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 806$26.110.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 806$26.100.5%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Naga (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 794$25.640.5%00.0—
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 787$25.420.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 787$25.420.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 781$25.210.5%00.0—
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 746$24.050.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 690$22.370.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare1 in 613$19.850.5%00.0—
P250 | Epicenter (Factory New)weapon · #d32ce61 in 581$18.760.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 556$17.980.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 442$14.290.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 408$13.180.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 392$12.660.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 380$12.290.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 369$11.940.5%00.0—
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 350$11.300.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 342$11.050.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 331$10.700.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon1 in 315$10.170.5%00.0—
P250 | Epicenter (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 313$10.140.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 312$10.070.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 309$9.970.5%00.0—
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 307$9.920.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink1 in 300$9.690.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 296$9.570.5%00.0—
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 295$9.520.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon1 in 294$9.480.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 286$9.250.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 280$9.070.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 281$9.060.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 280$9.050.5%00.0—
Glock-18 | Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical1 in 271$8.750.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 266$8.580.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 244$7.890.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 243$7.830.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 233$7.520.5%00.0—
M4A4 | Griffin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 229$7.390.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 58$7.041.7%00.0—
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 58$7.031.7%00.0—
FAMAS | Neural Net (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 56$6.811.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 55$6.751.7%00.0—
SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 48$5.861.7%00.0—
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 48$5.821.7%00.0—
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 47$5.771.7%00.0—
P250 | Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 44$5.391.7%00.0—
P250 | Epicenter (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce61 in 44$5.381.7%00.0—
P250 | Epicenter (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 44$5.371.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 44$5.361.7%00.0—
M4A1-S | Control Panel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 43$5.251.7%00.0—
M4A4 | Griffin (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 42$5.121.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 42$5.071.7%00.0—
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 41$4.991.7%00.0—
Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 41$4.991.7%00.0—
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 41$4.951.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 40$4.831.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 40$4.831.7%00.0—
P250 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 39$4.821.7%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 39$4.781.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 39$4.781.7%00.0—
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 38$4.611.7%00.0—
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified1 in 37$4.511.7%00.0—
M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 31$3.801.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 31$3.771.7%00.0—
M4A4 | Griffin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 29$3.581.7%00.0—
P250 | Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 29$3.501.7%00.0—
M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 27$3.281.7%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 26$3.141.7%00.0—
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 21$2.551.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 16$2.011.7%00.0—
Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hellcase:api/open/volksfest, 10 Nov, 21:40 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 21:40 UTC$8.0088.00%129
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$8.0087.94%129
8 Nov, 06:49 UTC$8.0088.03%129
6 Nov, 17:30 UTC$8.0087.99%129
4 Nov, 15:04 UTC$8.0088.01%129
3 Nov, 09:08 UTC$8.0088.04%129
3 Nov, 02:05 UTC$8.0088.01%129
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.5%Legendary 0.0%covert knife 0.1%Covert 0.1%Immortal 0.0%red 0.1%restricted 46.1%#d32ee6 5.9%Ancient 0.1%rare 2.9%pink 9.1%classified 24.0%#d32ce6 2.4%violet 0.6%uncommon 1.0%#8847ff 2.4%Mythical 1.2%Classified 2.7%