Wildfire

A case on Hellcase, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Hellcase's own item price.

Price

$3.00

Advertised RTP

—

no catalog

Observed RTP, 30d

104.51%

220 openings, sample method

Variance

—

needs odds

Tail share

—

needs odds

Below price

—

needs odds

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

11 openings · below min

7 days

182 openings · below min

30 days

220 openings · below min

since tracking started

220 openings · below min

22.0%104.8%187.5%

Small sample. 220 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	11	37.36%±14.9	—	sample
7d	182	119.25%±67.6	—	sample
30d	220	104.51%±56.1	—	sample
All	220	104.51%±56.1	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and valuesnone published

No catalogHellcase publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it.

Values are Hellcase's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covertCİHAT SARSILMAZ$3.00$16354.43x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecminipek$3.00$0.740.25x37m

USP-S | Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareCZAPSKY$3.00$2.550.85x3h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecCZAPSKY$3.00$0.680.23x3h

MP7 | Impire (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffweY$3.00$2.530.84x4h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil SpecCİHAT SARSILMAZ$3.00$0.740.25x5h

SSG 08 | Necropos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specCİHAT SARSILMAZ$3.00$0.530.18x5h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecCİHAT SARSILMAZ$3.00$0.680.23x5h

PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspecweY$3.00$0.740.25x5h

USP-S | Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specp21k777$3.00$1.040.35x9h

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specp21k777$3.00$1.570.52x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, daily

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedbest hit $163 (54.43x)