Hotpizza deliveryman

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$55.00

55 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

88.08%

EV $48.44 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.03%

6,752 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.58%±6.61761 openings

7 days

83.11%±2.425,703 openings

30 days

84.03%±2.226,752 openings

since tracking started

84.03%±2.226,752 openings

77.5%84.8%92.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.08% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.81% – 86.25%, 6,752 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	761	84.58%±6.61	−1.0σ	odds
7d	5,703	83.11%±2.42	−4.0σ	odds
30d	6,752	84.03%±2.22	−3.6σ	odds
All	6,752	84.03%±2.22	−3.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,758 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,000	$635 635 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	4	6.8	0.59×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 500	$379 379 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	10	13.5	0.74×
AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$365 365 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	10	13.5	0.74×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$359 359 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	9	20.3	0.44×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 333	$346 346 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	14	20.3	0.69×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 250	$290 290 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	27	27.0	1.00×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 250	$263 263 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	30	27.0	1.11×
P90 \| Run and Hide (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$218 218 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	35	33.8	1.04×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$172 172 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	36	47.3	0.76×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 143	$167 167 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	36	47.3	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	51	54.1	0.94×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 111	$124 124 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	53	60.8	0.87×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$98.82 98.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	48	67.6	0.71×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$92.87 92.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	66	67.6	0.98×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$87.68 87.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	56	67.6	0.83×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$81.22 81.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	60	67.6	0.89×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$76.50 76.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	61	67.6	0.90×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 67	$72.70 72.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	99	101.4	0.98×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 67	$68.02 68.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	87	101.4	0.86×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 50	$60.07 60.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	141	135.2	1.04×
Souvenir AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 50	$57.19 57.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	126	135.2	0.93×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$56.08 56.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	202	168.9	1.20×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 40	$54.34 54.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	175	168.9	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$53.23 53.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	220	202.7	1.09×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 25	$52.80 52.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	265	270.3	0.98×
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$50.64 50.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	283	270.3	1.05×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$45.46 45.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	342	337.9	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 20	$41.75 41.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	352	337.9	1.04×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$37.56 37.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	344	337.9	1.02×
FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$36.11 36.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	356	337.9	1.05×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$35.63 35.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	341	337.9	1.01×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 20	$32.82 32.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	356	337.9	1.05×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 20	$30.71 30.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	309	337.9	0.91×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 20	$27.40 27.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	329	337.9	0.97×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$26.37 26.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	350	337.9	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$23.02 23.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	330	337.9	0.98×
SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 22	$16.03 16.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	293	304.1	0.96×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 33	$15.25 15.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	213	202.7	1.05×
P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$13.19 13.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	209	202.7	1.03×
P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$11.52 11.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	223	202.7	1.10×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Torque (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$10.75 10.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	207	202.7	1.02×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · CovertХароня$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$635635 HOTPIZZA_POINT11.55x1d

Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Covert@Yarshop_bot - халява, б$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$635635 HOTPIZZA_POINT11.55x1d

Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · CovertOhioan State Pee Champion$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$635635 HOTPIZZA_POINT11.55x2d

Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Coverts 1 k z$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$635635 HOTPIZZA_POINT11.55x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBittah Prophet ☣$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$72.7072.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.32x2m

FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkBittah Prophet ☣$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$36.1136.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.66x2m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertRicky_Piorun$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$37.5637.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.68x7m

AUG | Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryRicky_Piorun$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$15.2515.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.28x7m

M4A4 | Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · redAbdrosel$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$27.4027.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.50x14m

FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkHarumi$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$36.1136.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.66x14m

P90 | Shallow Grave (Factory New)weapon · LegendaryHaryayiar$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$60.0760.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.09x14m

SCAR-20 | Magna Carta (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffMaalus[PL] | #GGoGR$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.0316.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.29x31m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert不拿控制死全家$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$35.6335.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.65x35m

M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialDr Doctor.AM$55.0055 HOTPIZZA_POINT$23.0223.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.42x36m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.08%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$55.00	88.08%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 1.2%Ancient 2.7%restricted 4.2%classified 26.5%covert 14.6%Restricted 2.4%red 15.9%mil spec 1.0%Legendary 5.0%uncommon 4.0%#d32ee6 5.0%pink 5.0%industrial 5.0%#4b69ff 4.5%Mythical 3.0%best hit $635 (11.55x)