Pizza Guardian

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$10.00

10 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

101.70%

EV $10.17 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.93%

11.6K openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

97.14%±7.641,340 openings

7 days

100.12%±2.839,760 openings

30 days

99.93%±2.6011.6K openings

since tracking started

99.93%±2.6011.6K openings

89.0%97.2%105.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,340	97.14%±7.64	−1.2σ	odds
7d	9,760	100.12%±2.83	−1.1σ	odds
30d	11.6K	99.93%±2.60	−1.4σ	odds
All	11.6K	99.93%±2.60	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 1,000	$241 241 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	7	11.6	0.60×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 667	$148 148 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	24	17.4	1.38×
★ Huntsman Knifeknife · covert	1 in 500	$133 133 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	20	23.2	0.86×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$102 102 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	15	23.2	0.65×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$93.54 93.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	38	34.9	1.09×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 500	$83.04 83.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	14	23.2	0.60×
★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife	1 in 333	$62.50 62.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	44	34.9	1.26×
★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$49.79 49.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	45	46.5	0.97×
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 250	$40.44 40.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	51	46.5	1.10×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$34.27 34.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	62	58.1	1.07×
MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$29.22 29.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	55	58.1	0.95×
G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 167	$27.47 27.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	54	69.7	0.77×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 143	$23.58 23.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	82	81.3	1.01×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Graphite (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$19.49 19.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	96	93.0	1.03×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 111	$17.33 17.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	81	104.6	0.77×
Galil AR \| Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$16.92 16.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	109	116.2	0.94×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$15.69 15.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	101	116.2	0.87×
XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$14.45 14.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	107	116.2	0.92×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 50	$14.00 14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	253	232.4	1.09×
Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$13.50 13.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	227	232.4	0.98×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$13.26 13.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	244	232.4	1.05×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 50	$13.07 13.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	223	232.4	0.96×
MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 40	$12.62 12.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	300	290.5	1.03×
Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$11.62 11.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	297	290.5	1.02×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Airlock (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 40	$11.56 11.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	274	290.5	0.94×
MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$11.41 11.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	296	290.5	1.02×
Sawed-Off \| Bamboo Shadow (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	1 in 33	$10.69 10.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	329	348.6	0.94×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$10.32 10.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	446	464.8	0.96×
P250 \| Inferno (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$9.04 9.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	446	464.8	0.96×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 22	$7.74 7.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	532	522.9	1.02×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$7.26 7.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	578	581.0	0.99×
SG 553 \| Traveler (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial	1 in 19	$6.91 6.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	651	627.5	1.04×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 18	$6.53 6.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	624	639.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$6.52 6.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	163	639.1	0.26×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$5.68 5.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	667	639.1	1.04×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$5.18 5.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	645	581.0	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$5.11 5.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	591	581.0	1.02×
MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	482	499.7	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$4.60 4.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	458	464.8	0.99×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$4.44 4.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	373	354.4	1.05×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$4.19 4.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	372	348.6	1.07×
R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$3.49 3.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	373	348.6	1.07×
USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$2.63 2.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	316	348.6	0.91×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified不拿控制死全家$10.0010 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.3210.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.03x1m

StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · LegendaryILoveBrazzers$10.0010 HOTPIZZA_POINT$14.0014 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.40x5m

Galil AR | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil specGeralt$10.0010 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.9216.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.69x12m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedGeralt$10.0010 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.267.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.73x12m

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetДисКриминант$10.0010 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.115.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.51x15m

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBlackHole [ZCM]$10.0010 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.3210.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.03x15m

SG 553 | Traveler (Field-Tested)weapon · IndustrialBELL [Mosnatic]$10.0010 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.916.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x15m

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkNiah$10.0010 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.185.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.52x15m

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkДисКриминант$10.0010 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.536.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.65x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 101.70%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$10.00	101.70%	43
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$10.00	101.74%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.0%covert knife 0.6%other 0.3%#ffd700 0.4%extraordinary 0.5%classified 20.9%blue 3.6%mil spec 8.2%restricted 25.1%industrial 1.0%Legendary 4.0%pink 12.5%#d32ee6 2.5%Common 3.0%Industrial 5.4%violet 5.0%milspec 3.0%#8847ff 3.0%best hit —