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Mad Case

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3,000.00
3,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
81.66%
EV $2,449.82 from 63 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.87%
1,292 openings, odds method
Variance
1.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
13.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
73.69%±16.51153 openings
7 days
81.53%±6.231,074 openings
30 days
82.87%±5.681,292 openings
since tracking started
82.87%±5.681,292 openings
56.5%73.8%91.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h15373.69%±16.5−0.9σodds
7d1,07481.53%±6.23−0.0σodds
30d1,29282.87%±5.68+0.4σodds
All1,29282.87%±5.68+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values63 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,293 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 200$17.9K 17,852 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%26.50.31×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband1 in 200$17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%96.51.39×
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 200$15.3K 15,264 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%46.50.62×
AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 167$14.8K 14,775 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%97.81.16×
AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 167$13.1K 13,107 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.2%127.81.55×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband1 in 143$12K 12,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%59.10.55×
AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary1 in 125$10.5K 10,531 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%1410.31.35×
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 111$9,578 9,578 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%1111.60.95×
AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$9,376 9,376 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%1212.90.93×
AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$8,347 8,347 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%1412.91.08×
AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$8,200 8,200 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%1412.91.08×
M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband1 in 100$7,837 7,837 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.2%1612.91.24×
AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 100$6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%1012.90.77×
M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband1 in 100$6,063 6,063 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%912.90.70×
AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$5,753 5,753 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%1412.91.08×
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$5,676 5,676 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%1112.90.85×
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 100$4,195 4,195 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%1512.91.16×
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$3,884 3,884 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%812.90.62×
AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 100$3,317 3,317 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%1812.91.39×
AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$3,249 3,249 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%612.90.46×
Negev | Mjölnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$2,982 2,982 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%1512.91.16×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · legendary1 in 100$2,883 2,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%4512.93.48×
AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 100$2,643 2,643 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2312.91.78×
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 95$2,573 2,573 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%1813.61.33×
AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 67$2,509 2,509 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%2319.41.19×
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 67$2,262 2,262 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%1619.40.82×
AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 67$2,102 2,102 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%1419.40.72×
AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 67$2,039 2,039 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%1819.40.93×
AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 67$2,027 2,027 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2019.41.03×
AWP | The Prince (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 67$1,981 1,981 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2419.41.24×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 67$1,924 1,924 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%1919.40.98×
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 67$1,857 1,857 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2119.41.08×
AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 67$1,628 1,628 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%2119.41.08×
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 67$1,607 1,607 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%1219.40.62×
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 67$1,594 1,594 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%2019.41.03×
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 67$1,577 1,577 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%1519.40.77×
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 67$1,566 1,566 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%1519.40.77×
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 50$1,542 1,542 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%2625.91.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · epic1 in 50$1,444 1,444 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2125.90.81×
AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 50$1,408 1,408 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2925.91.12×
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 33$1,369 1,369 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%3738.80.95×
AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 33$1,357 1,357 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%3538.80.90×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$1,353 1,353 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%3738.80.95×
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 33$1,210 1,210 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%3938.81.01×
AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 33$1,151 1,151 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%1338.80.34×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$1,068 1,068 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%4138.81.06×
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 33$1,025 1,025 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%4538.81.16×
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 43$1,009 1,009 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%3430.41.12×
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 50$994 994 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%2225.90.85×
Souvenir AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert1 in 50$960 960 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%2525.90.97×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50$956 956 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%2825.91.08×
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 50$829 829 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%3425.91.31×
M4A4 | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 50$741 741 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%1425.90.54×
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 50$725 725 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%2525.90.97×
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 50$707 707 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%1525.90.58×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50$693 693 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%625.90.23×
AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 50$662 662 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%3025.91.16×
AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 50$587 587 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%1925.90.73×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50$555 555 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%2625.91.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 50$477 477 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%625.90.23×
AWP | LongDog (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 50$459 459 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%2525.90.97×
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 50$448 448 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%2025.90.77×
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 50$400 400 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.3%3225.91.24×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendarydanya -salami=)$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.9K17,852 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.95x
AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendaryBărbatul Popa$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.9K17,852 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.95x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandPandaMonium$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.72x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandcarrot$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.72x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandElsuperbuenardo86 || TF2EASY.COM$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.72x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandMielody$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.72x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandHUAN TAP$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.72x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandMikalkis$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.72x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandedi.$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.72x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandfreelot$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.72x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New)weapon · covert02,9qf,92f9.-11$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0251,025 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x
AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)weapon · covertbanany$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$400400 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.13x
AK-47 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covertLamont$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,6432,643 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.88x
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1NERTAjs$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$725725 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.24x
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covertPgC | ProViKing$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$725725 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.24x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · classifiedOmegalaklala$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$448448 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.15x
M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMQ$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$994994 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.33x
AWP | Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertBurning Waffles$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1511,151 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.38x
M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classifiedDiller$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3691,369 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.46x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · legendaryMalfolin$3,0003,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,8832,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.96x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 81.66%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC$3,00081.66%63
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC$3,00081.70%63
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$3,00081.72%63
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 4.3%contraband 3.2%covert 72.5%classified 12.0%epic 2.0%restricted 2.0%#eb4b4b 2.0%red 2.0%best hit $17.9K (5.95x)