Mr. Experiment

A case on Hotpizza.gg (BACK2SCHOOL), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$2.75

2.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

86.93%

EV $2.39 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.33%

23.2K openings, odds method

Variance

5.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 18

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.10%±8.572,711 openings

7 days

82.23%±3.2019.4K openings

30 days

81.33%±2.9323.2K openings

since tracking started

81.33%±2.9323.2K openings

73.0%82.3%91.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.93% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.40% – 84.26%, 23,151 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,711	82.10%±8.57	−1.1σ	odds
7d	19.4K	82.23%±3.20	−2.9σ	odds
30d	23.2K	81.33%±2.93	−3.7σ	odds
All	23.2K	81.33%±2.93	−3.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 1,000	$104 104 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	26	23.2	1.12×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$55.25 55.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	28	46.4	0.60×
Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$41.71 41.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	58	69.7	0.83×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$40.20 40.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.7%	76	92.9	0.82×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$36.64 36.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	7.7%	97	116.1	0.84×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 167	$17.32 17.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	113	139.3	0.81×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$16.27 16.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	137	162.6	0.84×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 125	$15.66 15.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	160	185.8	0.86×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 111	$12.43 12.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	218	209.0	1.04×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$6.83 6.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	239	232.2	1.03×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$5.29 5.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	200	232.2	0.86×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$4.46 4.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	256	232.2	1.10×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$3.28 3.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	247	232.2	1.06×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$3.07 3.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	247	232.2	1.06×
MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 50	$2.71 2.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	470	464.5	1.01×
USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$2.37 2.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	462	464.5	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 50	$2.05 2.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	464	464.5	1.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 40	$1.98 1.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	597	580.6	1.03×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 33	$1.81 1.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	743	696.7	1.07×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 33	$1.78 1.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	672	696.7	0.96×
Galil AR \| Galigator (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$1.70 1.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	670	696.7	0.96×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.69 1.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	723	696.7	1.04×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.57 1.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	648	696.7	0.93×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$1.43 1.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	841	812.8	1.03×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$1.39 1.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	952	929.0	1.02×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Toy Soldier (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.28 1.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	919	929.0	0.99×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$1.15 1.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	1,193	1161.2	1.03×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Lapis Gator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$1.04 1.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	1,308	1393.4	0.94×
Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.96 0.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	1,595	1625.7	0.98×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$0.80 0.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	1,632	1625.7	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 18	$0.79 0.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	1,306	1277.3	1.02×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 20	$0.74 0.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	1,167	1161.2	1.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · common	1 in 20	$0.62 0.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	1,201	1161.2	1.03×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| RMX (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon	1 in 20	$0.52 0.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	1,200	1161.2	1.03×
Dual Berettas \| Shred (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$0.43 0.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	1,152	1161.2	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 20	$0.31 0.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	1,191	1161.2	1.03×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)weapon · blueBrook #3$2.752.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.800.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.29x49s

StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violetgaZiRovannayA voDka$2.752.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.811.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.66x2m

Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffChaoticTTV$2.752.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.310.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.11x2m

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff02,9qf,92f9.-11$2.752.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.960.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.35x2m

StatTrak™ USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · commonRыBoNьKa$2.752.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.620.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.23x2m

StatTrak™ USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · commonBlackHole [ZCM]$2.752.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.620.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.23x3m

Dual Berettas | Shred (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specBlackHole [ZCM]$2.752.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.430.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.16x3m

P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted✌(ツ)ว🌟$2.752.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.2716.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.92x4m

Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specBrumos #24 ◢◤$2.752.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.073.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.12x4m

Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · commonboing I guess$2.752.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.790.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.29x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$2.75	86.93%	36
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$2.75	86.85%	36

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%restricted 18.5%classified 2.8%mil spec 6.0%Rare 9.0%Mythical 5.0%uncommon 2.0%blue 14.5%violet 8.0%milspec 6.0%#4b69ff 12.0%common 10.5%other 5.0%best hit —