The Sharp-sighted

A case on Hotpizza.gg (BACK2SCHOOL), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.99

4.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

88.67%

EV $4.42 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.64%

16.7K openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.88%±3.741,844 openings

7 days

88.72%±1.3613.9K openings

30 days

88.64%±1.2416.7K openings

since tracking started

88.64%±1.2416.7K openings

85.5%90.0%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,844	89.88%±3.74	+0.6σ	odds
7d	13.9K	88.72%±1.36	+0.2σ	odds
30d	16.7K	88.64%±1.24	+0.1σ	odds
All	16.7K	88.64%±1.24	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 10,000	$172 172 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	7	1.7	4.19×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,111	$70.30 70.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	14	15.0	0.93×
Dual Berettas \| (Factory New)other	1 in 1,000	$29.64 29.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	19	16.7	1.14×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 500	$28.64 28.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	28	33.4	0.84×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 333	$25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	42	50.1	0.84×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$20.17 20.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	89	83.5	1.07×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 250	$15.29 15.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	64	66.8	0.96×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$12.87 12.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	128	133.6	0.96×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$12.12 12.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	146	167.0	0.87×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 67	$11.72 11.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	202	250.5	0.81×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 50	$8.96 8.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	311	334.0	0.93×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Galigator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon	1 in 40	$7.51 7.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	416	417.5	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$6.55 6.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	549	501.0	1.10×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 28	$6.42 6.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	614	601.2	1.02×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$5.68 5.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.1%	177	668.0	0.26×
AWP \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 22	$5.42 5.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.5%	734	751.5	0.98×
MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$5.04 5.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.1%	177	751.5	0.24×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$4.52 4.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.1%	836	834.9	1.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 18	$4.43 4.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.5%	954	918.4	1.04×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 18	$3.76 3.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	858	918.4	0.93×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$3.62 3.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.9%	1,038	1001.9	1.04×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 15	$3.52 3.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	307	1085.4	0.28×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$3.46 3.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	1,009	1001.9	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 18	$3.35 3.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	899	918.4	0.98×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Wingshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 18	$2.59 2.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	942	918.4	1.03×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 18	$2.42 2.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	934	918.4	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.91 1.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	813	834.9	0.97×
Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 20	$1.90 1.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	885	834.9	1.06×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$1.67 1.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	853	834.9	1.02×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$1.25 1.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	795	834.9	0.95×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalEmchoou$4.994.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.524.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.91x2m

USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedEmchoou$4.994.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.463.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x2m

AWP | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Gradefamous$4.994.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.425.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.09x4m

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecEtrome$4.994.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.251.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.25x4m

SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Gradecigoooooo$4.994.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.353.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.67x4m

SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec GradeMaxymo$4.994.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.353.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.67x4m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specfamous$4.994.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.623.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.73x4m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Magnesium (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specEtrome$4.994.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.671.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.33x4m

MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)weapon · violetcigoooooo$4.994.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.422.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.48x4m

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalMaxymo$4.994.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.524.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.91x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.67%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$4.99	88.67%	30
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$4.99	88.55%	30
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$4.99	88.64%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%covert knife 0.1%other 2.6%#d32ee6 0.2%restricted 10.0%Classified 4.0%classified 9.3%#d32ce6 2.0%violet 8.5%mil spec 15.0%Industrial Grade 4.5%Mythical 10.5%pink 5.5%#4b69ff 6.5%Mil Spec Grade 5.5%#8847ff 5.5%uncommon 5.0%milspec 5.0%best hit —