The Brainynator

A case on Hotpizza.gg (BACK2SCHOOL), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$11.99

11.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

86.86%

EV $10.41 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.42%

11.3K openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

26.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.26%±6.941,312 openings

7 days

86.09%±2.599,390 openings

30 days

85.42%±2.3711.3K openings

since tracking started

85.42%±2.3711.3K openings

72.5%81.0%89.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,312	80.26%±6.94	−1.9σ	odds
7d	9,390	86.09%±2.59	−0.6σ	odds
30d	11.3K	85.42%±2.37	−1.2σ	odds
All	11.3K	85.42%±2.37	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$303 303 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	12	11.3	1.06×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,000	$237 237 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	10	11.3	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Phase 3	1 in 1,000	$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	6	11.3	0.53×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 500	$112 112 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	27	22.6	1.20×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 333	$90.80 90.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	25	33.9	0.74×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$75.87 75.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	40	45.2	0.89×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$43.86 43.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	38	45.2	0.84×
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 200	$30.00 30 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	13	56.4	0.23×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$26.63 26.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	68	79.0	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$25.92 25.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	87	90.3	0.96×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 111	$23.03 23.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	90	101.6	0.89×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 100	$20.89 20.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	119	112.9	1.05×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 91	$17.58 17.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	115	124.2	0.93×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 83	$16.30 16.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	129	135.5	0.95×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 77	$15.52 15.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	129	146.8	0.88×
Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 63	$15.47 15.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	48	180.6	0.27×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 59	$14.71 14.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	185	191.9	0.96×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 56	$14.57 14.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	214	203.2	1.05×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$13.84 13.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	274	259.6	1.06×
P250 \| Mehndi (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$13.61 13.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	226	214.5	1.05×
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$13.09 13.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	290	270.9	1.07×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 40	$12.00 12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	283	282.2	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 28	$11.53 11.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	411	406.4	1.01×
FAMAS \| Styx (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$10.38 10.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	381	417.7	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$10.20 10.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	480	474.1	1.01×
AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 21	$9.47 9.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	584	541.9	1.08×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$9.37 9.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	518	553.2	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$8.87 8.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	575	564.4	1.02×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 20	$8.38 8.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	583	564.4	1.03×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$7.15 7.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	617	575.7	1.07×
Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$6.73 6.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	539	575.7	0.94×
AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 19	$5.44 5.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	589	587.0	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 18	$5.05 5.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	595	620.9	0.96×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 16	$4.67 4.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	652	688.6	0.95×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 15	$4.29 4.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	772	733.8	1.05×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$4.09 4.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	782	790.2	0.99×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$3.11 3.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	577	564.4	1.02×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Styx (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedпьяный что ли?$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.3810.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.87x2m

Souvenir MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Specпьяный что ли?$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.388.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.70x2m

Souvenir MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Mil SpecEl Autistmo$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.388.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.70x2m

M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Factory New)weapon · RareEl Autistmo$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$11.5311.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.96x2m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specfuckhate$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.379.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.78x7m

AWP | The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkakame$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.479.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x7m

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6BlindRLD$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.294.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.36x7m

UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkEl Autistmo$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.0913.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.09x7m

UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkfuckhate$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.0913.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.09x7m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6akame$11.9911.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.8920.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.74x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.86%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$11.99	86.86%	37
3 Nov, 09:11 UTC	$11.99	86.84%	37
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$11.99	86.72%	37
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$11.99	86.89%	37

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.1%other 0.1%covert knife 0.4%Ancient 0.5%restricted 16.8%classified 12.1%Legendary 8.7%#d32ee6 1.0%Restricted 1.1%pink 17.2%#eb4b4b 1.3%mil spec 11.5%Mythical 2.5%Rare 3.6%Mil Spec 5.0%violet 5.1%uncommon 5.5%#d32ce6 6.5%best hit —