The Hedgehog

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$26.99

26.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

92.28%

EV $24.91 from 59 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.46%

8,114 openings, odds method

Variance

6.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

12.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.50%±16.46925 openings

7 days

87.00%±6.076,840 openings

30 days

87.46%±5.578,114 openings

since tracking started

87.46%±5.578,114 openings

75.5%92.5%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	925	92.50%±16.5	+0.0σ	odds
7d	6,840	87.00%±6.07	−1.7σ	odds
30d	8,114	87.46%±5.57	−1.7σ	odds
All	8,114	87.46%±5.57	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values59 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,131 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,193 1,193 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	3	8.1	0.37×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,121 1,121 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	7	8.1	0.86×
★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Well-Worn)gloves · sunny	1 in 1,000	$834 834 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	6	8.1	0.74×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$648 648 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	1	8.1	0.12×
★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Flowers (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal	1 in 1,000	$411 411 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	8	8.1	0.98×
★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$376 376 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	9	8.1	1.11×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Minimal Wear)gloves · Immortal	1 in 500	$366 366 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	13	16.3	0.80×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$313 313 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	14	16.3	0.86×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 500	$230 230 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	14	16.3	0.86×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$177 177 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	9	24.4	0.37×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$137 137 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	11	24.4	0.45×
★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$129 129 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	20	24.4	0.82×
★ Sport Gloves \| Blaze (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$115 115 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	28	24.4	1.15×
★ Driver Gloves \| Dragon Fists (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$107 107 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	24	24.4	0.98×
★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$77.66 77.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	33	24.4	1.35×
★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 200	$71.22 71.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	40	40.7	0.98×
★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 143	$64.21 64.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	49	56.9	0.86×
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$63.34 63.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	75	81.3	0.92×
★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal	1 in 100	$41.42 41.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	71	81.3	0.87×
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$39.18 39.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	78	81.3	0.96×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$38.70 38.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	72	81.3	0.89×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$37.04 37.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	83	81.3	1.02×
★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$36.07 36.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	83	81.3	1.02×
★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 91	$32.72 32.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	96	89.4	1.07×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$30.76 30.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	68	81.3	0.84×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 91	$28.15 28.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	82	89.4	0.92×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 83	$27.73 27.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	95	97.6	0.97×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 83	$26.86 26.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	99	97.6	1.01×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 83	$26.42 26.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	91	97.6	0.93×
Souvenir MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 83	$26.16 26.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	100	97.6	1.02×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Watchdog (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 77	$25.44 25.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	98	105.7	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 77	$24.92 24.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	109	105.7	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 71	$24.35 24.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	109	113.8	0.96×
Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 67	$23.21 23.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	109	122.0	0.89×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 56	$22.15 22.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	137	146.4	0.94×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$21.91 21.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	159	162.6	0.98×
Glock-18 \| AXIA (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 50	$21.76 21.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	42	162.6	0.26×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary	1 in 50	$21.00 21 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	140	162.6	0.86×
P250 \| Muertos (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$20.98 20.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	155	162.6	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$19.85 19.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	180	162.6	1.11×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$19.36 19.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	185	162.6	1.14×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$18.11 18.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	263	243.9	1.08×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$17.50 17.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	245	243.9	1.00×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$16.10 16.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	77	243.9	0.32×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$15.10 15.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	224	243.9	0.92×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$13.22 13.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	245	243.9	1.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 33	$12.16 12.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	230	243.9	0.94×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$11.56 11.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	304	284.6	1.07×
M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$11.34 11.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	355	325.2	1.09×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$10.76 10.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	418	406.5	1.03×
AWP \| Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$10.04 10.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	320	325.2	0.98×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$9.36 9.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	336	325.2	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$8.59 8.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	326	325.2	1.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 25	$7.21 7.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	307	325.2	0.94×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$6.95 6.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	122	325.2	0.38×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$5.44 5.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	244	243.9	1.00×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$5.34 5.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	248	243.9	1.02×
AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$4.36 4.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	275	243.9	1.13×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$3.73 3.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	255	243.9	1.05×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryAugust 47$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1931,193 HOTPIZZA_POINT44.20x2d

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinaryjambajukes$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1931,193 HOTPIZZA_POINT44.20x3d

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary63rd Pluto$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1931,193 HOTPIZZA_POINT44.20x8d

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarykdslater10$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1211,121 HOTPIZZA_POINT41.54x18h

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary#rustysaloon-#rustchance.com$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1211,121 HOTPIZZA_POINT41.54x18h

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryJazzy$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1211,121 HOTPIZZA_POINT41.54x3d

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryKe$ha$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1211,121 HOTPIZZA_POINT41.54x4d

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarybrohden$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1211,121 HOTPIZZA_POINT41.54x5d

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryMapxy$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1211,121 HOTPIZZA_POINT41.54x6d

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarym3mzh$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1211,121 HOTPIZZA_POINT41.54x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryfygozerAA$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.1612.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.45x10m

MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil speceternity :v$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$19.3619.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x10m

USP-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffDanjgem$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.733.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.14x10m

Souvenir M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary𝓛𝓲𝓬𝓴 𝓶𝓮$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$21.0021 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.78x10m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedfygozerAA$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$21.9121.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.81x10m

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedeternity :v$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.598.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.32x10m

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedDanjgem$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.956.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.26x10m

Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified𝓛𝓲𝓬𝓴 𝓶𝓮$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$18.1118.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.67x10m

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested)gloves · ImmortalRotham$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$41.4241.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.53x12m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecCleo Castaway Cobb$26.9926.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.7610.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.40x17m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.28%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 16:33 UTC	$26.99	92.28%	59
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$26.99	92.22%	59

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 8.7%sunny 0.1%Immortal 1.3%rare 8.0%mil spec 6.3%pink 9.3%classified 26.5%Ancient 1.2%Restricted 2.6%#8847ff 4.5%restricted 5.5%Legendary 5.0%blue 3.0%Mythical 3.0%industrial 7.0%milspec 5.0%Classified 3.0%best hit $1,193 (44.20x)