Bully Annie

A case on Hotpizza.gg (BACK2SCHOOL), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$66.66

66.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

86.25%

EV $57.50 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.42%

6,607 openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.27%±10.46752 openings

7 days

80.32%±3.855,543 openings

30 days

80.42%±3.536,607 openings

since tracking started

80.42%±3.536,607 openings

69.0%80.3%91.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.32% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.89% – 83.95%, 6,607 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	752	80.27%±10.5	−1.1σ	odds
7d	5,543	80.32%±3.85	−3.0σ	odds
30d	6,607	80.42%±3.53	−3.3σ	odds
All	6,607	80.42%±3.53	−3.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,619 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,013 1,013 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	7	6.6	1.06×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 500	$951 951 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	10	13.2	0.76×
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · sunny	1 in 500	$769 769 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	9	13.2	0.68×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 333	$694 694 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	8	19.9	0.40×
★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 250	$551 551 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	18	26.5	0.68×
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$451 451 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	29	33.1	0.88×
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 200	$394 394 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	32	33.1	0.97×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 200	$380 380 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	33	33.1	1.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$347 347 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	21	33.1	0.63×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 143	$230 230 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	36	46.3	0.78×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 125	$213 213 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	61	53.0	1.15×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 111	$141 141 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	57	59.6	0.96×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 111	$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	64	59.6	1.07×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 100	$110 110 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	66	66.2	1.00×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$107 107 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	27	66.2	0.41×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$94.09 94.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	51	66.2	0.77×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 50	$89.52 89.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	107	132.4	0.81×
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$86.39 86.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	121	132.4	0.91×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$79.78 79.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	127	132.4	0.96×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$79.04 79.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	120	132.4	0.91×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 50	$68.34 68.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	151	132.4	1.14×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$64.26 64.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	121	132.4	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$62.00 62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	130	132.4	0.98×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Serum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$60.59 60.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	133	132.4	1.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$57.43 57.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	125	132.4	0.94×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$57.32 57.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	123	132.4	0.93×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$53.94 53.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	152	132.4	1.15×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$52.88 52.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	162	132.4	1.22×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 50	$50.41 50.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	138	132.4	1.04×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$49.72 49.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	32	132.4	0.24×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 50	$46.32 46.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	133	132.4	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$45.37 45.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	119	132.4	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$44.41 44.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	120	132.4	0.91×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$43.25 43.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	153	132.4	1.16×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$41.90 41.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	41	132.4	0.31×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$38.51 38.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	128	132.4	0.97×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 50	$35.33 35.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	128	132.4	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$32.87 32.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	151	132.4	1.14×
USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$29.75 29.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	132	132.4	1.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 50	$28.19 28.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	137	132.4	1.03×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Bratatat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$26.18 26.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	124	132.4	0.94×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$23.63 23.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	123	132.4	0.93×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$22.85 22.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	152	132.4	1.15×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$21.16 21.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	146	132.4	1.10×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 50	$20.57 20.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	133	132.4	1.00×
AWP \| Sun in Leo (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 50	$19.07 19.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	118	132.4	0.89×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 50	$18.37 18.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	126	132.4	0.95×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$17.18 17.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	117	132.4	0.88×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 50	$14.83 14.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	141	132.4	1.07×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$13.22 13.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	156	132.4	1.18×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$13.06 13.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	139	132.4	1.05×
Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$11.05 11.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	208	198.6	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$10.89 10.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	227	231.7	0.98×
FAMAS \| Night Borre (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 25	$9.54 9.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	269	264.8	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 20	$8.17 8.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	308	330.9	0.93×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$7.61 7.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	337	330.9	1.02×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covertkiuind$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0131,013 HOTPIZZA_POINT15.19x1d

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covertImYourFather$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0131,013 HOTPIZZA_POINT15.19x1d

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covertApparentlyGohan$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0131,013 HOTPIZZA_POINT15.19x6d

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covertbonp☣$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0131,013 HOTPIZZA_POINT15.19x6d

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covertMarto$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0131,013 HOTPIZZA_POINT15.19x6d

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covertel fragero$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0131,013 HOTPIZZA_POINT15.19x7d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertсигарета на балконе$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$951951 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.26x5h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertMy Epic System$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$951951 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.26x16h

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert💜 StellaraCrow 💜$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$951951 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.26x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedСократ-Sokrāts^$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$57.4357.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.86x1m

Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New)weapon · uncommonCuperboy 性愛之神$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.178.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.12x1m

FAMAS | Night Borre (Factory New)weapon · consumerJodak$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.549.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.14x1m

FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkСократ-Sokrāts^$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$43.2543.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.65x1m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedCuperboy 性愛之神$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$21.1621.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.32x1m

AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertJodak$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$53.9453.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.81x1m

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3CУБΞЯΞЯЯФЯ$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$128128 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.93x6m

CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedAdam Bieber$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.0613.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.20x7m

FAMAS | Night Borre (Factory New)weapon · consumerermm... what the scallop?$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.549.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.14x13m

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedermm... what the scallop?$66.6666.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.8910.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.16x13m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.25%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$66.66	86.25%	56
3 Nov, 09:11 UTC	$66.66	86.34%	56
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$66.66	86.35%	56

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 12.2%sunny 0.9%rare 0.4%covert knife 6.0%#EB4B4B 1.0%mil spec 3.0%#eb4b4b 2.0%restricted 13.0%Immortal 2.0%classified 23.5%Legendary 2.0%Ancient 2.0%pink 9.0%Classified 4.0%violet 2.0%red 2.0%industrial 2.0%uncommon 7.0%Restricted 2.0%consumer 4.0%best hit $1,013 (15.19x)