The Bookworm

A case on Hotpizza.gg (BACK2SCHOOL), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$109.99

110 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

83.61%

EV $91.97 from 55 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.00%

5,435 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.27%±7.73666 openings

7 days

83.19%±2.954,572 openings

30 days

83.00%±2.715,435 openings

since tracking started

83.00%±2.715,435 openings

75.0%83.3%91.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	666	83.27%±7.73	−0.1σ	odds
7d	4,572	83.19%±2.95	−0.3σ	odds
30d	5,435	83.00%±2.71	−0.5σ	odds
All	5,435	83.00%±2.71	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values55 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,452 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$1,577 1,577 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	13	10.9	1.19×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,233 1,233 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	5	5.5	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$1,173 1,173 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	4	5.5	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$994 994 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	7	10.9	0.64×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$617 617 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	16	16.4	0.98×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Covert	1 in 333	$583 583 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	16	16.4	0.98×
AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250	$407 407 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	31	21.8	1.42×
AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$308 308 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	25	21.8	1.15×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$259 259 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	20	21.8	0.92×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$247 247 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	24	21.8	1.10×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 250	$223 223 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	23	21.8	1.05×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 200	$189 189 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	26	27.3	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 200	$187 187 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	33	27.3	1.21×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$175 175 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	26	32.7	0.79×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 167	$171 171 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	23	32.7	0.70×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 125	$168 168 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	40	43.6	0.92×
Galil AR \| Aqua Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 125	$158 158 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	29	43.6	0.66×
P90 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 125	$153 153 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	41	43.6	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic	1 in 125	$148 148 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	51	43.6	1.17×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$145 145 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	47	43.6	1.08×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 111	$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	50	49.1	1.02×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 111	$139 139 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	45	49.1	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$135 135 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	59	54.5	1.08×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$129 129 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	46	54.5	0.84×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$124 124 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	40	54.5	0.73×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 67	$122 122 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	76	81.8	0.93×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 67	$122 122 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	74	81.8	0.90×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 50	$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	36	109.0	0.33×
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 50	$119 119 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	115	109.0	1.05×
★ Nomad Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · Immortal	1 in 48	$119 119 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	105	114.5	0.92×
M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 45	$116 116 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	94	119.9	0.78×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 43	$111 111 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	120	125.4	0.96×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 42	$104 104 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	41	130.8	0.31×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$95.18 95.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	126	130.8	0.96×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 42	$92.87 92.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	135	130.8	1.03×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 42	$89.84 89.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	133	130.8	1.02×
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$88.72 88.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	146	136.3	1.07×
Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 40	$82.33 82.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	134	136.3	0.98×
AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 40	$78.12 78.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	145	136.3	1.06×
★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 36	$76.44 76.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	142	152.7	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$73.50 73.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	160	163.6	0.98×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 33	$66.49 66.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	174	163.6	1.06×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$63.14 63.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	167	163.6	1.02×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$56.62 56.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	177	163.6	1.08×
P2000 \| Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$56.08 56.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	175	163.6	1.07×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$55.24 55.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	155	163.6	0.95×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$50.29 50.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	48	163.6	0.29×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$49.96 49.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	188	163.6	1.15×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 33	$45.56 45.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	168	163.6	1.03×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$44.36 44.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	169	163.6	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 32	$41.72 41.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	168	169.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$40.99 40.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	235	218.1	1.08×
M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 24	$39.71 39.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	224	223.5	1.00×
AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$32.33 32.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	263	278.1	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$31.34 31.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	316	327.1	0.97×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covertIchiro$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5771,577 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.34x10h

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert.eclipse$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5771,577 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.34x2d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covertNaMbow$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5771,577 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.34x2d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covertJackk$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5771,577 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.34x3d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covertOneiros$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5771,577 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.34x3d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covertChungus$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5771,577 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.34x4d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covertАнальный Сеньор$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5771,577 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.34x5d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covertF1LIN$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5771,577 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.34x5d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covertAmishTomato$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5771,577 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.34x5d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covertBaguetteMyster$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5771,577 HOTPIZZA_POINT14.34x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700Serial$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$119119 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.08x1m

AUG | Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertBittah Prophet ☣$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$88.7288.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.81x3m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedBittah Prophet ☣$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$49.9649.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.45x3m

★ Ursus Knife | Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifefonky monky$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$76.4476.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x6m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertAzTech$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$129129 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.17x7m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specBalance$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$50.2950.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.46x7m

M4A4 | Global Offensive (Factory New)weapon · blueShmichael$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$39.7139.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.36x7m

M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covertBalance$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$89.8489.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.82x7m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specShmichael$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$50.2950.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.46x7m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertBalance$110110 HOTPIZZA_POINT$63.1463.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.57x7m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 83.61%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$110	83.61%	55
3 Nov, 09:11 UTC	$110	83.71%	55
3 Nov, 07:59 UTC	$110	83.59%	55
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$110	83.49%	55
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$110	83.40%	55

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 24.6%Covert 2.3%mil spec 7.2%restricted 4.3%epic 1.3%Legendary 0.8%industrial 6.0%rare 4.0%covert knife 4.8%Classified 4.5%#ffd700 2.0%Immortal 2.1%classified 26.0%#eb4b4b 3.0%red 3.0%blue 4.1%best hit $1,577 (14.34x)