Chicken Riot

A case on Hotpizza.gg (CS2 SQUAD), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$15.50

15.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

98.23%

EV $15.23 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.46%

9,886 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

102.09%±7.671,233 openings

7 days

97.59%±2.988,193 openings

30 days

97.46%±2.719,886 openings

since tracking started

97.46%±2.719,886 openings

94.0%102.3%110.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,233	102.09%±7.67	+1.0σ	odds
7d	8,193	97.59%±2.98	−0.4σ	odds
30d	9,886	97.46%±2.71	−0.6σ	odds
All	9,886	97.46%±2.71	−0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,914 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,000	$396 396 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	7	9.9	0.71×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 667	$247 247 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	20	14.9	1.34×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 500	$217 217 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	19	19.8	0.96×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 333	$156 156 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	28	29.7	0.94×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$80.31 80.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	36	39.7	0.91×
★ Falchion Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$73.96 73.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	41	49.6	0.83×
★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 200	$57.28 57.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	47	49.6	0.95×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 167	$44.95 44.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	53	59.5	0.89×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 143	$33.40 33.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	65	69.4	0.94×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$32.26 32.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	69	79.3	0.87×
USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 111	$30.08 30.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	92	89.2	1.03×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$27.08 27.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	79	99.1	0.80×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$24.41 24.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	70	99.1	0.71×
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$23.93 23.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	108	109.1	0.99×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · SMGs	1 in 83	$22.37 22.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	115	119.0	0.97×
Souvenir SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Classified	1 in 83	$21.46 21.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	130	119.0	1.09×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 74	$20.98 20.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	129	133.8	0.96×
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 67	$19.00 19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	159	148.7	1.07×
P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$18.18 18.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	220	198.3	1.11×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 40	$17.62 17.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	254	247.8	1.02×
CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$16.15 16.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	351	297.4	1.18×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$16.04 16.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	300	297.4	1.01×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 29	$15.36 15.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	389	347.0	1.12×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 29	$15.08 15.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	354	347.0	1.02×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 25	$14.81 14.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	363	396.6	0.92×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Blind Spot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$14.60 14.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	386	396.6	0.97×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 22	$13.39 13.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	474	446.1	1.06×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$12.58 12.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	510	495.7	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$12.25 12.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	513	495.7	1.03×
AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$11.35 11.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	529	495.7	1.07×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 20	$11.12 11.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	493	495.7	0.99×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 22	$10.84 10.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	463	446.1	1.04×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$9.67 9.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	366	396.6	0.92×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$8.59 8.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	377	396.6	0.95×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$7.87 7.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	412	396.6	1.04×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Tornado (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial	1 in 25	$7.62 7.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	384	396.6	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$6.95 6.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	333	347.0	0.96×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$5.56 5.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	298	297.4	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$5.48 5.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	272	297.4	0.91×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial	1 in 33	$4.45 4.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	278	297.4	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$4.24 4.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	328	347.0	0.95×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkEsertyX$15.5015.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.956.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.45x5m

Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedEsertyX$15.5015.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.2512.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x5m

★ Navaja Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covertKlotos$15.5015.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$44.9544.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.90x9m

Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedEmchoou$15.5015.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.2512.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x9m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specCafeQuente$15.5015.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$8.598.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x9m

AK-47 | Predator (Field-Tested)weapon · industrialAKloading$15.5015.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$11.3511.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.73x9m

P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedItzTerry$15.5015.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$18.1818.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.17x13m

StatTrak™ P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedDu1MaT #Trading$15.5015.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$14.6014.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.94x14m

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)weapon · MythicalJack Black$15.5015.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.5812.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.81x16m

Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedDu1MaT #Trading$15.5015.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.2512.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x16m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 98.23%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$15.50	98.23%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.9%covert knife 1.0%rare 0.2%gold 0.5%Restricted 0.7%mil spec 11.4%restricted 18.1%classified 15.3%SMGs 1.2%Classified 6.7%#8847ff 5.5%uncommon 4.0%Mythical 5.0%industrial 5.0%pink 12.0%milspec 4.5%Industrial 7.0%best hit —