Otaku Ollie Panda

A case on Hotpizza.gg (CS2 SQUAD), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$25.50

25.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

92.89%

EV $23.69 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.18%

7,830 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

77.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.61%±7.93817 openings

7 days

91.15%±2.846,395 openings

30 days

90.18%±2.567,830 openings

since tracking started

90.18%±2.567,830 openings

86.0%94.5%103.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.89% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (87.62% – 92.75%, 7,830 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	817	94.61%±7.93	+0.4σ	odds
7d	6,395	91.15%±2.84	−1.2σ	odds
30d	7,830	90.18%±2.56	−2.1σ	odds
All	7,830	90.18%±2.56	−2.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,843 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$544 544 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	7	7.8	0.89×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · knifes	1 in 1,000	$379 379 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	8	7.8	1.02×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,000	$336 336 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	5	7.8	0.64×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$240 240 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	6	7.8	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 333	$221 221 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	19	23.5	0.81×
★ Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 250	$145 145 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	31	31.4	0.99×
★ Classic Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$103 103 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	25	31.4	0.80×
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 200	$90.24 90.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	38	39.2	0.97×
★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$74.72 74.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	27	39.2	0.69×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$66.98 66.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	41	47.1	0.87×
★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 143	$54.18 54.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	52	54.9	0.95×
★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 111	$48.01 48.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	68	70.6	0.96×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$43.97 43.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	68	78.4	0.87×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 91	$36.53 36.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	97	86.3	1.12×
Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 91	$34.42 34.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	81	86.3	0.94×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Covert	1 in 67	$33.86 33.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	101	117.6	0.86×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 91	$32.09 32.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	77	86.3	0.89×
P90 \| Baroque Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$30.44 30.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	110	117.6	0.94×
P90 \| Shallow Grave (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 50	$29.08 29.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	131	156.9	0.84×
P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 40	$28.43 28.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	177	196.1	0.90×
Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$27.19 27.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	247	235.3	1.05×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$26.42 26.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	242	235.3	1.03×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 29	$25.44 25.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	274	274.5	1.00×
Souvenir M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 29	$24.42 24.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	293	274.5	1.07×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 29	$23.38 23.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	285	274.5	1.04×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$22.15 22.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	339	313.7	1.08×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 25	$21.78 21.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	314	313.7	1.00×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted	1 in 20	$20.74 20.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	364	392.1	0.93×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$19.46 19.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	383	392.1	0.98×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$18.88 18.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	303	313.7	0.97×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$18.48 18.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	344	313.7	1.10×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$17.99 17.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	391	392.1	1.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 25	$16.26 16.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	335	313.7	1.07×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$15.68 15.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	346	313.7	1.10×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$14.36 14.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	310	313.7	0.99×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 25	$13.49 13.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	321	313.7	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$12.61 12.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	290	274.5	1.06×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$11.06 11.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	277	274.5	1.01×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 33	$10.26 10.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	235	235.3	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Fallout Warning (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$9.23 9.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	229	235.3	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Derailment (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 33	$8.23 8.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	235	235.3	1.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$7.69 7.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	157	156.9	1.00×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$6.30 6.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	160	156.9	1.02×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covertKney$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$544544 HOTPIZZA_POINT21.35x1h

★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert⎛⎝Galorch⎠⎞$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$544544 HOTPIZZA_POINT21.35x2h

★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covertc1nari$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$544544 HOTPIZZA_POINT21.35x4d

★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covertFudgie the Whale$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$544544 HOTPIZZA_POINT21.35x5d

★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covertBaccati$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$544544 HOTPIZZA_POINT21.35x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covertGibran Jansen$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$544544 HOTPIZZA_POINT21.35x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covertedi.$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$544544 HOTPIZZA_POINT21.35x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedDer_Dome$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$14.3614.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.56x2m

UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialDer_Dome$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.239.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.36x2m

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knifePriest$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$221221 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.66x4m

M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkPriest$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12.6112.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.49x4m

StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedНежнее, Я сирота$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.9917.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.71x11m

Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New)weapon · rareduarte$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$27.1927.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.07x11m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified»︎♡︎«︎ #Cr4zy++ ®$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$15.6815.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.61x11m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · uncommonRedulj$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.4913.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.53x11m

R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedНежнее, Я сирота$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$11.0611.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.43x11m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rareduarte$25.5025.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$21.7821.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.85x11m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.89%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$25.50	92.89%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.1%knifes 0.1%covert knife 2.5%classified 31.0%rare 12.1%Restricted 9.6%Covert 1.5%red 1.1%mil spec 7.0%Classified 4.5%restricted 8.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%uncommon 7.0%pink 3.5%industrial 3.0%violet 2.0%best hit $544 (21.35x)