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MuscleStrike Tiger

A case on Hotpizza.gg (CS2 SQUAD), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$49.00
49 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
93.64%
EV $45.88 from 37 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.30%
7,064 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
92.93%±8.75768 openings
7 days
88.65%±3.145,980 openings
30 days
88.30%±2.897,064 openings
since tracking started
88.30%±2.897,064 openings
83.5%93.0%102.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 93.64% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (85.41% – 91.18%, 7,064 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h76892.93%±8.75−0.2σodds
7d5,98088.65%±3.14−3.1σodds
30d7,06488.30%±2.89−3.6σodds
All7,06488.30%±2.89−3.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,078 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 667$1,024 1,024 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%710.60.66×
★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic1 in 500$574 574 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%1114.20.78×
★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary1 in 333$465 465 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%1421.20.66×
★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 333$312 312 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%2321.21.08×
★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal1 in 222$257 257 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%2531.90.78×
★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Field-Tested)gloves · rare1 in 250$200 200 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%2528.30.88×
★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser (Field-Tested)gloves · epic1 in 200$185 185 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%2635.40.73×
★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Field-Tested)gloves · Immortal1 in 200$176 176 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%2435.40.68×
★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 167$144 144 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%3942.50.92×
★ Sport Gloves | Blaze (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 167$122 122 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%4242.50.99×
★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 143$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%4649.50.93×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 125$91.63 91.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%3956.60.69×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife1 in 111$90.66 90.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%5563.70.86×
★ Falchion Knife | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 100$76.64 76.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%6870.80.96×
★ Survival Knife | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 91$70.81 70.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%5977.90.76×
★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 67$69.76 69.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%93106.20.88×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 50$60.59 60.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%138141.60.97×
★ Navaja Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · Covert1 in 50$55.85 55.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%128141.60.90×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 40$54.34 54.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%176176.90.99×
★ Gut Knife | Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 33$52.81 52.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%222212.31.05×
★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 25$49.51 49.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.3%277283.10.98×
★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 25$46.39 46.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.0%261283.10.92×
★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 22$45.79 45.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.5%332318.51.04×
★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 22$45.42 45.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.5%319318.51.00×
★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 22$41.64 41.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.1%321318.51.01×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 20$39.24 39.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.3%354353.91.00×
FAMAS | Meltdown (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 18$35.50 35.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.3%389389.31.00×
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 17$34.61 34.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.5%436424.71.03×
SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 17$28.61 28.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%433424.71.02×
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 17$25.43 25.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%417424.70.98×
AWP | Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 17$24.82 24.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.2%433424.71.02×
Souvenir AUG | Sand Storm (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF1 in 18$23.15 23.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%447389.31.15×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 20$21.54 21.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%367353.91.04×
StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 22$20.44 20.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%315318.50.99×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 29$18.42 18.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%265247.71.07×
AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 33$16.31 16.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%233212.31.10×
AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 33$10.38 10.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%219212.31.03×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryСТАЛИН$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0241,024 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.90x
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryGhonn$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0241,024 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.90x
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryBetterThanYou$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0241,024 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.90x
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryAtlant$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0241,024 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.90x
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryEmotional$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0241,024 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.90x
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryErwin Rommel$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0241,024 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.90x
★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryFin$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0241,024 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.90x
★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic자신을 죽일$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$574574 HOTPIZZA_POINT11.71x
★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Minimal Wear)gloves · epichabibi$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$574574 HOTPIZZA_POINT11.71x
★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook (Minimal Wear)gloves · epicDoc Silver$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$574574 HOTPIZZA_POINT11.71x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryCedník <3$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$34.6134.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.71x
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specCedník <3$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$25.4325.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.52x
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specaBoBocka$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$25.4325.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.52x
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinarydante$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$34.6134.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.71x
AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifieddante$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.3116.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.33x
★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinarydante$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$312312 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.38x
★ Navaja Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covertdante$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$45.7945.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.93x
Desert Eagle | Night Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specGeralt$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$25.4325.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.52x
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Factory New)weapon · classifiedJack™$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$18.4218.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.38x
★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryJack™$49.0049 HOTPIZZA_POINT$34.6134.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.71x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.64%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$49.0093.64%37
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 12.2%epic 0.7%legendary 0.3%Immortal 1.0%rare 0.4%covert 20.8%covert knife 4.8%other 0.9%Covert 2.0%gold 4.0%Legendary 5.0%classified 25.5%mil spec 6.0%restricted 11.0%#8847FF 5.5%best hit $1,024 (20.90x)