Counter-Gas Elite

A case on Hotpizza.gg (CS2 SQUAD), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$72.00

72 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

89.61%

EV $64.52 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.80%

5,948 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.79%±5.29694 openings

7 days

88.86%±1.984,936 openings

30 days

88.80%±1.815,948 openings

since tracking started

88.80%±1.815,948 openings

80.0%85.8%91.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	694	85.79%±5.29	−1.4σ	odds
7d	4,936	88.86%±1.98	−0.7σ	odds
30d	5,948	88.80%±1.81	−0.9σ	odds
All	5,948	88.80%±1.81	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,966 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 2,000	$646 646 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	4	3.0	1.34×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$613 613 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	1	3.0	0.34×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$512 512 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	11	11.9	0.92×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$485 485 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	16	17.9	0.89×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 333	$398 398 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	18	17.9	1.01×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$230 230 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	18	23.9	0.75×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 200	$218 218 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	33	29.8	1.11×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$182 182 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	27	35.8	0.75×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion KnifeStatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 143	$161 161 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	41	41.8	0.98×
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 125	$138 138 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	43	47.7	0.90×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 111	$129 129 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	43	53.7	0.80×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	59	59.7	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$119 119 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	51	59.7	0.85×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife	1 in 100	$111 111 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	65	59.7	1.09×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 91	$105 105 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	71	65.6	1.08×
★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 83	$101 101 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	77	71.6	1.08×
★ Classic Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 83	$93.32 93.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	73	71.6	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 59	$92.26 92.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	110	101.4	1.08×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$85.98 85.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	130	119.3	1.09×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 40	$77.58 77.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	153	149.1	1.03×
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$76.67 76.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	187	179.0	1.04×
★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$75.91 75.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	234	238.6	0.98×
★ Falchion Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$73.78 73.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	252	238.6	1.06×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 25	$69.76 69.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	227	238.6	0.95×
★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$67.07 67.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	244	238.6	1.02×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$64.02 64.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	217	238.6	0.91×
★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$61.67 61.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	240	238.6	1.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$57.28 57.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	334	298.3	1.12×
★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 20	$56.44 56.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	298	298.3	1.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 20	$55.32 55.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	289	298.3	0.97×
★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$48.29 48.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	298	298.3	1.00×
AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$45.31 45.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	295	298.3	0.99×
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 22	$40.19 40.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	234	268.5	0.87×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$39.95 39.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	183	179.0	1.02×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 25	$37.39 37.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	218	238.6	0.91×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 25	$34.76 34.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	248	238.6	1.04×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$32.48 32.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	185	179.0	1.03×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$25.04 25.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	190	179.0	1.06×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$23.35 23.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	297	298.3	1.00×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$20.42 20.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	124	119.3	1.04×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 50	$15.70 15.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	128	119.3	1.07×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeGirlhog Gaming$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$646646 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.97x1d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeDCLXVI$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$646646 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.97x4d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeDelamain$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$646646 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.97x7d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeEraserhead$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$646646 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.97x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertLipebare rustchance.com$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$613613 HOTPIZZA_POINT8.51x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeMah1ru$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$512512 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.11x17h

★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeMumble$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$512512 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.11x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife► RasTeR ◄$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$512512 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.11x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeC.U.B.E$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$512512 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.11x3d

★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeотец фрола$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$512512 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.11x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeEl Autistmo$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$48.2948.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.67x45s

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedFives$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$39.9539.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x7m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBest Onee Sama -Eu$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$57.2857.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.80x10m

★ Ursus Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeEurus$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$61.6761.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.86x13m

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertEurus$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$25.0425.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.35x13m

★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifeItzTerry$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$48.2948.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.67x14m

AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)weapon · RareMaxymo$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$45.3145.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.63x15m

★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertKlotos$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$40.1940.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.56x18m

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knifeKlotos$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.54x18m

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · ImmortalВъебал Бомжа$72.0072 HOTPIZZA_POINT$69.7669.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.97x23m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.61%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$72.00	89.61%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 30.0%covert 20.5%rare 0.5%sunny 5.9%other 1.0%Immortal 4.0%classified 7.0%gold 5.0%Rare 5.0%restricted 6.0%red 4.0%Restricted 4.0%mil spec 5.0%Mil Spec Grade 2.0%best hit $646 (8.97x)