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AKella-47

A case on Hotpizza.gg (CS2 SQUAD), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$98.00
98 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
93.45%
EV $91.58 from 44 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.30%
5,870 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
35.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
93.02%±5.12646 openings
7 days
93.89%±1.854,936 openings
30 days
94.30%±1.705,870 openings
since tracking started
94.30%±1.705,870 openings
87.5%93.3%99.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h64693.02%±5.12−0.2σodds
7d4,93693.89%±1.85+0.5σodds
30d5,87094.30%±1.70+1.0σodds
All5,87094.30%±1.70+1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,887 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 2,000$1,073 1,073 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%32.91.02×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 2,000$979 979 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%42.91.36×
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$607 607 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%75.91.19×
Souvenir AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Ancient1 in 500$577 577 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%1211.81.02×
AK-47 | Jet Set (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 400$387 387 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2014.71.36×
AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary1 in 333$374 374 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%1517.70.85×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 222$337 337 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%2126.50.79×
AK-47 | Aphrodite (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 200$293 293 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%2729.40.92×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 200$268 268 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%3629.41.22×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 182$237 237 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%3832.41.17×
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 167$225 225 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%4335.31.22×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 143$214 214 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%4341.21.04×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epic1 in 143$209 209 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%5041.21.21×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 133$197 197 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%5044.21.13×
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 133$194 194 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%4444.21.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 125$188 188 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%4647.10.98×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 118$173 173 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%4950.00.98×
AK-47 | First Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 111$155 155 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%4853.00.91×
AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$137 137 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%7758.91.31×
AK-47 | Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 91$136 136 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%5864.80.90×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 83$129 129 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%6370.60.89×
AK-47 | Jaguar (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 83$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%6770.60.95×
Souvenir AK-47 | B the Monster (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Ancient1 in 67$123 123 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%8188.30.92×
Souvenir AK-47 | Panthera onca (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon1 in 50$118 118 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%121117.71.03×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 40$105 105 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.9%158147.21.07×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$100 100 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%162176.60.92×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 29$99.77 99.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%183206.00.89×
AK-47 | Jaguar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 25$92.45 92.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.0%228235.50.97×
AK-47 | First Class (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 20$84.99 84.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.6%273294.30.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Oligarch (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 18$83.27 83.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.0%339323.81.05×
AK-47 | B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 17$82.18 82.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.4%351353.20.99×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 15$81.50 81.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.8%383382.71.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 17$77.30 77.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.1%369353.21.04×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 20$69.00 69 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%287294.30.98×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 20$68.53 68.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%278294.30.94×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 20$67.31 67.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%294294.31.00×
AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 22$62.99 62.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%291264.91.10×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 25$62.17 62.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%237235.51.01×
AK-47 | Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 25$57.35 57.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%229235.50.97×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 25$53.80 53.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%262235.51.11×
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$45.25 45.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%171176.60.97×
Souvenir AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec1 in 40$26.00 26 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%140147.20.95×
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 50$21.85 21.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%108117.70.92×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pink1 in 50$17.60 17.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%121117.71.03×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedпт на трахать?$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0731,073 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.94x
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedHIMARS$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0731,073 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.94x
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedBeybi$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0731,073 HOTPIZZA_POINT10.94x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedGeneticallyEngineeredBanana$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$979979 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.99x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedбеляш2007$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$979979 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.99x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedBryce.$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$979979 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.99x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedCyber$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$979979 HOTPIZZA_POINT9.99x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertElster$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$607607 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.20x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert! n o e.$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$607607 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.20x
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertAtomicWaffle$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$607607 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.20x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertInceptioN$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$81.5081.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.83x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertKuririn$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$214214 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.19x
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specKuririn$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$45.2545.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.46x
AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedLil Chich$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$137137 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.40x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedLil Chich$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$53.8053.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x
AK-47 | B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covertederguedesdosantos23$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$82.1882.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.84x
AK-47 | Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · redederguedesdosantos23$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$57.3557.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.59x
AK-47 | Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · redBeastBoy$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$57.3557.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.59x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · pinkBMaximusBoss$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.6017.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.18x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epicBMaximusBoss$98.0098 HOTPIZZA_POINT$209209 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.13x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.45%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$98.0093.45%44
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 18.6%covert 43.2%Ancient 1.7%legendary 0.3%#eb4b4b 0.5%epic 0.7%restricted 11.9%other 2.0%#8847ff 5.0%pink 6.5%red 4.0%mil spec 5.5%best hit $1,073 (10.94x)