Serpent Strike

A case on Hotpizza.gg (CS2 SQUAD), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$165.00

165 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

87.58%

EV $144.50 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.80%

5,203 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

34.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.51%±4.49564 openings

7 days

87.87%±1.624,334 openings

30 days

87.80%±1.485,203 openings

since tracking started

87.80%±1.485,203 openings

85.5%90.5%95.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	564	90.51%±4.49	+1.3σ	odds
7d	4,334	87.87%±1.62	+0.2σ	odds
30d	5,203	87.80%±1.48	+0.1σ	odds
All	5,203	87.80%±1.48	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,221 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rare	1 in 2,000	$1,070 1,070 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	3	2.6	1.15×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$968 968 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	2	5.2	0.38×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$850 850 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	16	10.4	1.53×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 400	$604 604 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	14	13.1	1.07×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 333	$568 568 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	17	15.7	1.09×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 250	$535 535 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	22	20.9	1.05×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$522 522 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	24	26.1	0.92×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 167	$515 515 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	31	31.3	0.99×
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$414 414 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	25	31.3	0.80×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 143	$380 380 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	35	36.5	0.96×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 143	$277 277 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	3	36.5	0.08×
★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 125	$232 232 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	51	41.8	1.22×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 111	$224 224 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	42	47.0	0.89×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 111	$219 219 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	3	47.0	0.06×
★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$218 218 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	53	52.2	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$215 215 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	71	52.2	1.36×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$207 207 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	50	52.2	0.96×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 67	$204 204 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	84	78.3	1.07×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 67	$200 200 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	78	78.3	1.00×
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$198 198 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	116	104.4	1.11×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 50	$191 191 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	102	104.4	0.98×
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 50	$188 188 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	85	104.4	0.81×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 40	$178 178 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	21	130.5	0.16×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 40	$165 165 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	20	130.5	0.15×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 33	$148 148 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	163	156.6	1.04×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$140 140 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	138	156.6	0.88×
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$139 139 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	177	208.8	0.85×
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$135 135 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	17	208.8	0.08×
★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$133 133 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	24	208.8	0.11×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$129 129 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	198	208.8	0.95×
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$127 127 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	206	208.8	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 25	$123 123 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	199	208.8	0.95×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 25	$122 122 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	29	208.8	0.14×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$120 120 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	265	261.0	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$107 107 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	241	261.0	0.92×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$103 103 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	242	261.0	0.93×
★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$99.92 99.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	235	261.0	0.90×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$96.40 96.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	225	208.8	1.08×
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$92.47 92.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	24	208.8	0.11×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$82.32 82.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	178	208.8	0.85×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$81.08 81.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	19	156.6	0.12×
★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 33	$78.72 78.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	156	156.6	1.00×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$73.38 73.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	123	104.4	1.18×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 50	$61.09 61.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	109	104.4	1.04×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rareaxx's x *67 stylas$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0701,070 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.48x13h

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rareGucc107$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0701,070 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.48x2d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · rareMaulaxin$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0701,070 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.48x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert<3 Goldenfishh$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$968968 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.87x19h

★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertHeadbanger$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$968968 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.87x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertCrug$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$850850 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.15x15h

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertBlare$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$850850 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.15x20h

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertcxzcxz$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$850850 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.15x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertdung brother 2$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$850850 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.15x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertbpjeks$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$850850 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.15x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert✌(ツ)ว🌟$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.73x6m

★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeBrumos #24 ◢◤$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$96.4096.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.58x6m

★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · rareMedicine Apprentice$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$380380 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.31x9m

★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertMedicine Apprentice$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$127127 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.77x9m

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeA Noob Player$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$73.3873.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.44x18m

★ Navaja Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertItsCalyptic$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$81.0881.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.49x18m

★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertGodGOAT.$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$82.3282.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.50x18m

★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert❤ ~０ｒ２ｏ~ ❤$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$82.3282.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.50x26m

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2HMBSbige$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.74x31m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.58%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$165	87.58%	44
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$165	87.76%	44

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrare 0.8%covert 65.4%covert knife 26.4%Covert 4.5%epic 3.0%best hit $1,070 (6.48x)