Titan

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Metal Edition), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$22.00

22 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

93.47%

EV $20.56 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.32%

8,670 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.69%±6.671,134 openings

7 days

92.04%±2.637,266 openings

30 days

91.32%±2.418,670 openings

since tracking started

91.32%±2.418,670 openings

82.5%89.8%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,134	89.69%±6.67	−1.1σ	odds
7d	7,266	92.04%±2.63	−1.0σ	odds
30d	8,670	91.32%±2.41	−1.7σ	odds
All	8,670	91.32%±2.41	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,685 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$356 356 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	18	17.4	1.04×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$232 232 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	8	8.7	0.92×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert	1 in 333	$185 185 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	21	26.1	0.81×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$138 138 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	32	34.7	0.92×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$136 136 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	37	34.7	1.07×
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$109 109 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	35	43.4	0.81×
★ Nomad Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$99.56 99.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	34	43.4	0.78×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife	1 in 167	$70.09 70.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	64	52.1	1.23×
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 143	$53.45 53.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	60	60.8	0.99×
★ Bowie Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$51.56 51.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	64	86.8	0.74×
★ Navaja Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 100	$46.55 46.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	74	86.8	0.85×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$37.90 37.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	69	86.8	0.79×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$36.71 36.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	87	86.8	1.00×
MP7 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 100	$32.17 32.17 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	78	86.8	0.90×
AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 100	$30.23 30.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	24	86.8	0.28×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$29.28 29.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	19	86.8	0.22×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$27.30 27.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	110	86.8	1.27×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$26.41 26.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	78	86.8	0.90×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 67	$25.50 25.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	153	130.3	1.17×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$25.13 25.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	113	130.3	0.87×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 50	$24.11 24.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	175	173.7	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 33	$23.78 23.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	244	260.5	0.94×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$21.90 21.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	337	347.4	0.97×
AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 20	$21.82 21.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.3%	418	434.2	0.96×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$19.34 19.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	329	347.4	0.95×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$18.35 18.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	414	434.2	0.95×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$17.20 17.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	437	434.2	1.01×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$16.19 16.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	457	434.2	1.05×
M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$15.63 15.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	411	434.2	0.95×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$14.72 14.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	464	434.2	1.07×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$14.30 14.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	419	434.2	0.96×
MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$13.88 13.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	480	434.2	1.11×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$12.25 12.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	465	434.2	1.07×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 25	$11.46 11.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	350	347.4	1.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$11.11 11.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	449	434.2	1.03×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 25	$10.08 10.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	377	347.4	1.09×
AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$7.03 7.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	258	260.5	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$5.65 5.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	265	260.5	1.02×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$5.26 5.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	251	260.5	0.96×
AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 43	$4.57 4.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	204	199.8	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 50	$3.23 3.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	167	173.7	0.96×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedArtur.$22.0022 HOTPIZZA_POINT$21.9021.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.00x2m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · industrialLil Chich$22.0022 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.265.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.24x2m

StatTrak™ MP9 | Airlock (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedLil Chich$22.0022 HOTPIZZA_POINT$11.4611.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.52x2m

StatTrak™ MP9 | Airlock (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedAGF$22.0022 HOTPIZZA_POINT$11.4611.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.52x7m

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedAGF$22.0022 HOTPIZZA_POINT$14.7214.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.67x7m

MP9 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restrictedGrabek$22.0022 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.8813.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.63x7m

StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedBlueFour$22.0022 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.1916.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.74x10m

StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeBlueFour$22.0022 HOTPIZZA_POINT$18.3518.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.83x10m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · industrialBlueFour$22.0022 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.265.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.24x10m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specBlueFour$22.0022 HOTPIZZA_POINT$29.2829.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.33x10m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$22.00	93.47%	41
3 Nov, 09:11 UTC	$22.00	93.38%	41
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$22.00	93.70%	41

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 2.6%Covert 0.3%covert 4.2%other 0.6%gold 1.0%restricted 25.5%classified 24.0%Mil Spec Grade 6.0%Restricted 1.0%mil spec 4.0%milspec 1.5%rare 3.0%#d32ce6 5.0%Rare 5.0%pink 5.0%Classified 4.0%industrial 5.3%#8847ff 2.0%best hit —