Copper

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Metal Edition), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$88.00

88 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

88.98%

EV $78.30 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.68%

5,855 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

85.82%±5.89673 openings

7 days

86.62%±2.224,739 openings

30 days

86.68%±2.005,855 openings

since tracking started

86.68%±2.005,855 openings

79.5%86.0%92.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.68% – 88.68%, 5,855 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	673	85.82%±5.89	−1.1σ	odds
7d	4,739	86.62%±2.22	−2.1σ	odds
30d	5,855	86.68%±2.00	−2.3σ	odds
All	5,855	86.68%±2.00	−2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,873 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,503 1,503 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	2	2.9	0.68×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 667	$537 537 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	13	8.8	1.48×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 667	$406 406 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	11	8.8	1.25×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 500	$382 382 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	10	11.7	0.85×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 250	$337 337 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	24	23.5	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$289 289 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	21	23.5	0.89×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 222	$275 275 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	19	26.4	0.72×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$273 273 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	34	29.4	1.16×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$260 260 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	28	29.4	0.95×
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$247 247 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	24	29.4	0.82×
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$239 239 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	29	29.4	0.99×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$219 219 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	33	29.4	1.12×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$216 216 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	25	29.4	0.85×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$192 192 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	29	29.4	0.99×
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$185 185 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	20	29.4	0.68×
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$175 175 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	22	29.4	0.75×
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 200	$174 174 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	25	29.4	0.85×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 200	$163 163 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	32	29.4	1.09×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 167	$158 158 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	36	35.2	1.02×
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 143	$154 154 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	34	41.1	0.83×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 111	$152 152 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	11	52.9	0.21×
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$148 148 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	40	58.7	0.68×
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 100	$143 143 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	48	58.7	0.82×
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$141 141 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	72	58.7	1.23×
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$140 140 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	49	58.7	0.83×
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 100	$139 139 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	55	58.7	0.94×
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$132 132 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	53	58.7	0.90×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$128 128 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	67	58.7	1.14×
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 100	$127 127 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	55	58.7	0.94×
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 50	$117 117 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	96	117.5	0.82×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$96.18 96.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	130	117.5	1.11×
★ Nomad Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal	1 in 40	$90.55 90.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	146	146.8	0.99×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 33	$80.51 80.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	57	176.2	0.32×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$76.86 76.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	225	234.9	0.96×
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 22	$75.82 75.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	250	264.3	0.95×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 22	$72.50 72.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	252	264.3	0.95×
★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$69.73 69.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	299	293.6	1.02×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 20	$68.12 68.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	306	293.6	1.04×
★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 17	$64.91 64.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	331	352.4	0.94×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 20	$63.37 63.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	324	293.6	1.10×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · Knives	1 in 20	$54.52 54.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	281	293.6	0.96×
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal	1 in 20	$44.63 44.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	289	293.6	0.98×
MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$34.26 34.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	325	293.6	1.11×
Souvenir USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 20	$30.86 30.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	317	293.6	1.08×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 20	$30.25 30.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	298	293.6	1.01×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$30.04 30.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	337	293.6	1.15×
Souvenir AK-47 \| Safety Net (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$20.76 20.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	291	293.6	0.99×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	243	234.9	1.03×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertBA†ISTUTA$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5031,503 HOTPIZZA_POINT17.08x6d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertShark Face$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5031,503 HOTPIZZA_POINT17.08x6d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeSharko$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$537537 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.10x6h

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeGolem The Sneaky$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$537537 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.10x1d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifebayz$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$537537 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.10x2d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife美波$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$537537 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.10x2d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeМИЛЯ 2008 QWEEN$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$537537 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.10x2d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeHokage Obito$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$537537 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.10x2d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeBOY BSS$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$537537 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.10x3d

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeSchmuhbeck$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$537537 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.10x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · KnivesNighttail$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$54.5254.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.62x6m

★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertkachegar#RUSTCHANCE.com$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$69.7369.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x7m

StatTrak™ XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedkachegar#RUSTCHANCE.com$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$30.0430.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x7m

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifefluffer$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$76.8676.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.87x8m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertGandhi$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$63.3763.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x8m

AK-47 | The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rareSnowl$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$30.2530.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x8m

StatTrak™ XM1014 | XOXO (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedSkankhunt42$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$30.0430.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x12m

★ Gut Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertPedroche$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$80.5180.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.91x12m

Souvenir AK-47 | Safety Net (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedPedroche$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.7620.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.24x12m

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifemarcellus$88.0088 HOTPIZZA_POINT$239239 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.72x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.98%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$88.00	88.98%	48
3 Nov, 15:57 UTC	$88.00	89.02%	48
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$88.00	89.12%	48

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 31.5%covert knife 19.8%Covert 0.2%#ffd700 1.0%rare 11.0%Immortal 7.5%Knives 5.0%pink 5.0%#8847FF 5.0%classified 5.0%restricted 5.0%#8847ff 4.0%best hit $1,503 (17.08x)