Silver

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Metal Edition), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$111.00

111 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

93.97%

EV $104.31 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.03%

5,550 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

47.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.46%±4.06607 openings

7 days

92.61%±1.484,599 openings

30 days

93.03%±1.355,550 openings

since tracking started

93.03%±1.355,550 openings

86.0%90.5%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	607	90.46%±4.06	−1.7σ	odds
7d	4,599	92.61%±1.48	−1.9σ	odds
30d	5,550	93.03%±1.35	−1.5σ	odds
All	5,550	93.03%±1.35	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,564 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 500	$433 433 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	15	11.1	1.35×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife	1 in 1,000	$428 428 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	4	5.6	0.72×
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$401 401 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	9	5.6	1.62×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 500	$366 366 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	8	11.1	0.72×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 333	$307 307 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	17	16.7	1.02×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 333	$268 268 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	18	16.7	1.08×
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 333	$248 248 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	22	16.7	1.32×
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 333	$225 225 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	8	16.7	0.48×
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 333	$222 222 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	14	16.7	0.84×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 250	$208 208 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	16	22.3	0.72×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$198 198 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	17	22.3	0.76×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 167	$194 194 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	34	33.4	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 100	$182 182 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	57	55.6	1.02×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 100	$181 181 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	48	55.6	0.86×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$176 176 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	65	55.6	1.17×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$174 174 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	44	55.6	0.79×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$163 163 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	62	55.6	1.11×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$163 163 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	58	55.6	1.04×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$161 161 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	101	111.3	0.91×
★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 50	$155 155 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	87	111.3	0.78×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$155 155 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	114	111.3	1.02×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$153 153 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	103	111.3	0.93×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50	$151 151 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	114	111.3	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$148 148 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	99	111.3	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 40	$147 147 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	135	139.1	0.97×
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 33	$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	141	166.9	0.84×
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$140 140 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	170	166.9	1.02×
★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$140 140 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	38	166.9	0.23×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$133 133 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	157	166.9	0.94×
★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$131 131 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	135	166.9	0.81×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$127 127 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	200	166.9	1.20×
★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 22	$117 117 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	230	250.4	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 15	$114 114 HOTPIZZA_POINT	7.1%	382	361.7	1.06×
★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 14	$89.86 89.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.0%	440	389.5	1.13×
★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 14	$75.12 75.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	399	389.5	1.02×
★ Kukri Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 17	$61.37 61.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	354	333.8	1.06×
★ Paracord Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 17	$52.58 52.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	340	333.8	1.02×
FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$42.19 42.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	300	278.2	1.08×
AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 20	$39.94 39.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	261	278.2	0.94×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$35.32 35.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	237	222.6	1.06×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$30.31 30.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	155	166.9	0.93×
MP9 \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$22.55 22.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	225	222.6	1.01×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · ImmortalMK$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT$142142 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.28x4m

★ Bowie Knife | Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · goldAYO v3 wlvs$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT$75.1275.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.68x18m

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · epicHOOOODINI$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT$155155 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.40x26m

★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifefonky monky$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT$163163 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.47x28m

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covertfonky monky$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT$30.3130.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.27x28m

★ Kukri Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeSlothDemon$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT$61.3761.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x39m

★ Nomad Knife | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert★行 ꜰᴀᴛᴇ$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT$133133 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.20x39m

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertCapt. Grandpow$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT$161161 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.45x41m

AWP | LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · redCapt. Grandpow$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT$39.9439.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.36x41m

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeCapt. Grandpow$111111 HOTPIZZA_POINT$147147 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.32x41m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.97%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$111	93.97%	42
3 Nov, 15:57 UTC	$111	94.12%	42
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$111	94.11%	42

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 23.4%other 0.1%covert knife 37.9%Immortal 3.6%Covert 1.0%epic 2.0%gold 14.0%classified 5.0%red 5.0%restricted 4.0%#8847ff 4.0%best hit —