Gold
A case on Hotpizza.gg (Metal Edition), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.
Price
$333.00
333 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
86.73%
EV $288.82 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.84%
3,445 openings, odds method
Variance
0.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,448 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4BAndriucha$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,9221,922 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.77x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4BСырок$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,9221,922 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.77x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B🔰ice$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,9221,922 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.77x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertMudkip$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4161,416 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.25x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertmestoimeniya_txc🦠🧪$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4161,416 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.25x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertmar[1]o_$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4161,416 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.25x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · coverta bijou of obscurity$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4161,416 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.25x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3Barroso$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4001,400 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.20x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3KhrysterS$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4001,400 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.20x
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3Ege 753$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4001,400 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.20x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeПиво$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$141141 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.42x
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covertSneakySnek$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$327327 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.98x
★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertAllen and Mi$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$239239 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x
★ Talon Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeDισxчDε$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$278278 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.84x
★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · goldFlermer$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$219219 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.66x
★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertFlermer$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$215215 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.65x
★ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertGekt0r$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$234234 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.70x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1llama$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT$567567 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.70x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.73%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $333 | 86.73% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 09:11 UTC | $333 | 86.67% | 41 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $333 | 87.03% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#EB4B4B 0.1%covert 50.4%Covert 5.3%Knives 0.3%covert knife 22.6%epic 6.7%gold 11.5%#ffd700 3.0%best hit $1,922 (5.77x)