Platinum

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Metal Edition), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$777.00

777 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

85.74%

EV $666.20 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.83%

2,363 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

24.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.43%±7.54267 openings

7 days

85.70%±2.761,984 openings

30 days

85.83%±2.532,363 openings

since tracking started

85.83%±2.532,363 openings

75.0%83.3%91.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	267	83.43%±7.54	−0.6σ	odds
7d	1,984	85.70%±2.76	−0.0σ	odds
30d	2,363	85.83%±2.53	+0.1σ	odds
All	2,363	85.83%±2.53	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,367 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 1,000	$2,903 2,903 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	1	2.4	0.42×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 1	1 in 500	$2,846 2,846 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	7	4.7	1.48×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 400	$2,565 2,565 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	8	5.9	1.35×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 333	$2,435 2,435 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	4	7.1	0.56×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 286	$2,346 2,346 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	6	8.3	0.72×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3	1 in 250	$2,300 2,300 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	1	9.5	0.11×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 250	$2,056 2,056 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	14	9.5	1.48×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 250	$1,844 1,844 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	11	9.5	1.16×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 125	$1,740 1,740 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	27	18.9	1.43×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 125	$1,672 1,672 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	22	18.9	1.16×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic	1 in 100	$1,628 1,628 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	22	23.7	0.93×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,600 1,600 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	32	23.7	1.35×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 100	$1,538 1,538 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	19	23.7	0.80×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 100	$1,526 1,526 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	24	23.7	1.01×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,484 1,484 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	28	23.7	1.18×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1	1 in 100	$1,407 1,407 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	26	23.7	1.10×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 100	$1,379 1,379 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	15	23.7	0.63×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$1,351 1,351 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	16	23.7	0.68×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$1,287 1,287 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	20	23.7	0.84×
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$1,222 1,222 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	32	23.7	1.35×
★ Butterfly Knifeknife · covert	1 in 100	$1,136 1,136 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	5	23.7	0.21×
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 91	$1,107 1,107 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	29	26.0	1.11×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 50	$1,080 1,080 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	36	47.3	0.76×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 50	$1,055 1,055 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	40	47.3	0.84×
★ StatTrak™ KarambitStatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B	1 in 50	$1,052 1,052 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	8	47.3	0.17×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$954 954 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	55	47.3	1.16×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 50	$913 913 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	60	47.3	1.27×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$903 903 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	37	47.3	0.78×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 50	$890 890 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	51	47.3	1.08×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 40	$806 806 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	51	59.2	0.86×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 29	$759 759 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	91	82.8	1.10×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 29	$723 723 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	85	82.8	1.03×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife	1 in 29	$626 626 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	78	82.8	0.94×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$573 573 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	97	94.7	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Knives	1 in 25	$501 501 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	91	94.7	0.96×
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$432 432 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	91	94.7	0.96×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 17	$376 376 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.3%	138	139.7	0.99×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$357 357 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	116	118.3	0.98×
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25	$325 325 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	107	94.7	1.13×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$287 287 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	74	94.7	0.78×
★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25	$269 269 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	109	94.7	1.15×
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 25	$250 250 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	90	94.7	0.95×
★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$241 241 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	22	94.7	0.23×
★ Skeleton Knifeknife · covert	1 in 33	$240 240 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	71	71.0	1.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$226 226 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	74	71.0	1.04×
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$216 216 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	64	71.0	0.90×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$212 212 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	65	71.0	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 50	$152 152 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	65	47.3	1.37×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1b$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,9032,903 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.74x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 1MeBigBrain$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,8462,846 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.66x8h

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 1Better than U$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,8462,846 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.66x4d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 1crazywisler$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,8462,846 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.66x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 1انتخب | elected$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,8462,846 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.66x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 19ty$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,8462,846 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.66x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 1h1ca$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,8462,846 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.66x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)StatTrak · knife · Knives · Phase 1山卄丨ㄒ乇千ㄖ乂SKINBOX$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,8462,846 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.66x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epicDillinger$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5652,565 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.30x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epicPT 76B NA NOJKAH$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,5652,565 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.30x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Talon Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeAkinorisar$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$241241 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.31x1m

★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · goldＴＹＰＩＣＡＬ🔥$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$913913 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.17x11m

★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covertKRICO$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$250250 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.32x17m

★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeLil Chich$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$432432 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.56x22m

★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert☣WOLFS☣ HETTIX$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$357357 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.46x31m

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knifeake eilish$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$626626 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.81x32m

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · goldSlizefest$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,5261,526 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.96x39m

★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertSlizefest$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$806806 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.04x39m

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Slizefest$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$890890 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.14x39m

★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · goldAdam Bieber$777777 HOTPIZZA_POINT$913913 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.17x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.74%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$777	85.74%	48
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$777	85.75%	48
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$777	85.71%	48

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 50.8%Knives 4.2%epic 1.3%Covert 1.8%gold 3.0%#EB4B4B 3.0%covert knife 30.4%other 3.5%#ffd700 2.0%best hit $2,903 (3.74x)