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Perilous Pepperoni

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hellfire Cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$5.50
5.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
86.01%
EV $4.73 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.31%
15.2K openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
88.48%±6.051,935 openings
7 days
83.82%±2.4812.6K openings
30 days
83.31%±2.2715.2K openings
since tracking started
83.31%±2.2715.2K openings
80.5%87.8%95.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 86.35% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (81.04% – 85.58%, 15,213 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,93588.48%±6.05+0.8σodds
7d12.6K83.82%±2.48−2.0σodds
30d15.2K83.31%±2.27−2.6σodds
All15.2K83.31%±2.27−2.6σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd7001 in 1,000$175 175 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%1015.30.66×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 667$101 101 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.2%1522.90.66×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Isaac (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 286$37.52 37.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%6053.41.12×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink1 in 222$23.81 23.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%4768.70.68×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 143$18.00 18 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%97106.80.91×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 182$16.13 16.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%7583.90.89×
MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 125$15.79 15.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%127122.11.04×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Pulse (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 105$11.36 11.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%127145.00.88×
PP-Bizon | High Roller (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 105$10.54 10.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%138145.00.95×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 100$8.71 8.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%131152.60.86×
MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50$7.38 7.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.1%280305.20.92×
SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 33$6.61 6.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.2%469457.81.02×
M4A4 | Spider Lily (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 20$6.31 6.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.7%810763.01.06×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 20$6.11 6.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.5%754763.00.99×
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 25$5.14 5.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.3%172610.40.28×
MP9 | Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 20$4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.3%751763.00.98×
AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 20$4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.0%791763.01.04×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 20$4.56 4.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.8%734763.00.96×
MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 14$4.27 4.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.3%1,0721068.31.00×
AUG | Aristocrat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 14$4.19 4.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.2%1,0361068.30.97×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare1 in 14$3.90 3.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.8%1,0821068.31.01×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 17$3.37 3.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.3%942915.71.03×
AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 20$2.44 2.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%778763.01.02×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon1 in 25$1.93 1.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%621610.41.02×
MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 25$1.91 1.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%549610.40.90×
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 25$1.81 1.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%611610.41.00×
StatTrak™ P250 | Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 25$1.70 1.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%628610.41.03×
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 33$1.61 1.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%480457.81.05×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 33$1.57 1.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%488457.81.07×
Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 33$1.28 1.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%472457.81.03×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 33$0.90 0.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%457457.81.00×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialShockwve$5.505.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.616.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.20x
AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedздоровья погибшим$5.505.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.704.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.85x
Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil speckw_16$5.505.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.281.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.23x
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonBroken.exe™$5.505.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.145.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.93x
MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalIM THICCC ASFFF$5.505.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.274.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.78x
SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrialMandy$5.505.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.616.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.20x
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedCommission of Counter Ghoul$5.505.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.564.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.83x
MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Factory New)weapon · violetNeutronium$5.505.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.911.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.35x
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommonNeutronium$5.505.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.811.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.33x
SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · industrial1tap$5.505.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.616.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.20x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC$5.5086.01%31
3 Nov, 15:57 UTC$5.5086.46%31
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$5.5086.61%31
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.1%Classified 5.2%mil spec 4.1%pink 0.5%restricted 24.7%Restricted 3.5%#d32ee6 0.9%industrial 3.0%uncommon 12.0%classified 10.0%Mythical 13.0%#8847ff 12.0%Rare 7.0%violet 4.0%best hit —