gambatracker
Live
Big wins
Platinum Prive Blackjack 3$3,2861.86xSpeed Baccarat A$5,0062.00xThe Dog House$69.58208.3xCrazy Time$1,26121.00xStake Baccarat$2,1021.91xLimbo$37.33150.0xCrazy Time$1,89021.00xCrazy Time$2,14224.91xLegacy of Dead$11.75117.5xCrash$1,3441.20xBlackjack 76 - Azure$3,6002.00xMines$2,4151.48xLimbo$1,4643.00xFist of Destruction Megamultiplier$1,398463.9xMines$2,96512.04xBig Bass Bonanza 1000$373124.4xKeno$1,0002.00xCrash$3,2682.93xCrash$1,0252.05xPrivé Lounge 1$2,5002.50xBlackjack 34$1,7273.44xCrazy Time A$1,2001.66xCase Battles$2,99111.38xGates of Olympus 1000$2,4841.98x

Furious Jalapeño

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hellfire Cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$11.00
11 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
88.36%
EV $9.72 from 33 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.20%
11.3K openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
82.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
83.87%±6.331,355 openings
7 days
85.74%±2.439,353 openings
30 days
85.20%±2.2211.3K openings
since tracking started
85.20%±2.2211.3K openings
77.0%84.0%91.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 88.21% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (82.98% – 87.42%, 11,258 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,35583.87%±6.33−1.4σodds
7d9,35385.74%±2.43−2.1σodds
30d11.3K85.20%±2.22−2.7σodds
All11.3K85.20%±2.22−2.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 1,000$125 125 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%911.30.80×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 667$116 116 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%916.90.53×
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 333$105 105 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.2%3633.91.06×
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 286$92.33 92.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%2539.50.63×
Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 286$77.99 77.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%3439.50.86×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 286$62.80 62.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%3939.50.99×
Dual Berettas | Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 100$53.66 53.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.5%95112.80.84×
AK-47 | Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 100$41.34 41.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.3%111112.80.98×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 100$37.97 37.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.9%112112.80.99×
Souvenir Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 100$26.84 26.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%105112.80.93×
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Eco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 100$21.84 21.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%125112.81.11×
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 100$20.99 20.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%86112.80.76×
AWP | Sun in Leo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial1 in 100$18.85 18.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%101112.80.89×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 50$17.10 17.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%207225.70.92×
Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 50$16.80 16.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%226225.71.00×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 50$14.36 14.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%229225.71.01×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33$12.50 12.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.9%293338.50.87×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 33$10.85 10.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%90338.50.27×
G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 25$9.26 9.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%446451.40.99×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Isaac (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 20$8.58 8.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.4%477564.20.85×
Souvenir AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec1 in 17$7.55 7.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.7%708677.11.05×
AK-47 | The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare1 in 14$6.49 6.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.7%679789.90.86×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 12$6.02 6.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.2%984947.91.04×
AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 13$5.95 5.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.9%809902.80.90×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 14$5.51 5.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.0%805789.91.02×
Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 14$5.36 5.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.9%821789.91.04×
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 20$4.73 4.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%563564.21.00×
Tec-9 | Remote Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 20$4.42 4.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%575564.21.02×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff1 in 20$4.36 4.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%581564.21.03×
StatTrak™ M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 33$3.38 3.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%346338.51.02×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 33$2.34 2.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%307338.50.91×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 33$2.04 2.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%313338.50.92×
MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 33$1.70 1.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%333338.50.98×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetHypeer$11.0011 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.8016.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.53x
StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedHypeer$11.0011 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.515.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.50x
G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedDom..$11.0011 HOTPIZZA_POINT$9.269.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.84x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedDom..$11.0011 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.8510.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.99x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedJack Black$11.0011 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.026.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x
Souvenir AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil specDu1MaT #Trading$11.0011 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.557.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x
StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedJack Black$11.0011 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.515.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.50x
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkDu1MaT #Trading$11.0011 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.734.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.43x
StatTrak™ MP7 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkAame$11.0011 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.515.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.50x
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedkAame$11.0011 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.026.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.36%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC$11.0088.36%33
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$11.0088.39%33
4 Nov, 05:40 UTC$11.0087.13%33
3 Nov, 15:57 UTC$11.0086.89%33
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$11.0087.08%33
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.4%classified 30.3%red 0.3%mil spec 12.0%restricted 18.0%industrial 1.0%violet 2.0%pink 7.0%rare 7.0%#d32ee6 8.0%#8847ff 8.0%Restricted 3.0%Mythical 3.0%best hit —