Cayenne Madness

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hellfire Cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$44.00

44 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

88.59%

EV $38.98 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.16%

7,274 openings, odds method

Variance

3.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

88.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.34%±11.93932 openings

7 days

88.74%±4.666,098 openings

30 days

89.16%±4.277,274 openings

since tracking started

89.16%±4.277,274 openings

83.0%95.5%108.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	932	95.34%±11.9	+1.1σ	odds
7d	6,098	88.74%±4.66	−0.0σ	odds
30d	7,274	89.16%±4.27	+0.1σ	odds
All	7,274	89.16%±4.27	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,296 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 667	$1,883 1,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT	7.2%	10	10.9	0.91×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Covert	1 in 500	$555 555 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	14	14.6	0.96×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 333	$321 321 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	25	21.9	1.14×
★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 286	$264 264 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	28	25.5	1.10×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$234 234 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	33	29.2	1.13×
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 200	$205 205 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	35	36.5	0.96×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 167	$120 120 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	41	43.8	0.94×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 167	$116 116 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	41	43.8	0.94×
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 167	$111 111 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	50	43.8	1.14×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 143	$78.14 78.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	53	51.1	1.04×
★ Falchion Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 125	$75.12 75.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	48	58.4	0.82×
★ Classic Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 111	$73.64 73.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	23	65.7	0.35×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 111	$67.10 67.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	56	65.7	0.85×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold	1 in 100	$61.58 61.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	83	73.0	1.14×
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$57.90 57.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	77	73.0	1.06×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$52.81 52.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	73	73.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$45.40 45.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	168	145.9	1.15×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 50	$42.83 42.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	136	145.9	0.93×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 50	$41.99 41.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	137	145.9	0.94×
USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 33	$39.24 39.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	222	218.9	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$38.60 38.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	234	218.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$37.42 37.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	57	218.9	0.26×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$36.29 36.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	234	218.9	1.07×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$34.93 34.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	204	218.9	0.93×
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$34.53 34.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	356	364.8	0.98×
Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 17	$33.78 33.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.2%	434	437.8	0.99×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$32.30 32.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	442	437.8	1.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 17	$29.20 29.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	430	437.8	0.98×
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$28.86 28.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	451	437.8	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$27.28 27.28 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	366	364.8	1.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$26.56 26.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	377	364.8	1.03×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$22.62 22.62 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	272	291.8	0.93×
SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$21.93 21.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	300	291.8	1.03×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 25	$17.99 17.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	271	291.8	0.93×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 33	$16.24 16.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	202	218.9	0.92×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$15.50 15.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	200	218.9	0.91×
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$14.48 14.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	213	218.9	0.97×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 33	$13.22 13.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	239	218.9	1.09×
AUG \| Random Access (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$11.68 11.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	212	218.9	0.97×
SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$9.44 9.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	217	218.9	0.99×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyDaimi$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,8831,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT42.80x6h

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyME NAME JEF$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,8831,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT42.80x11h

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyLordFord80$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,8831,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT42.80x1d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby124TreeTop$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,8831,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT42.80x3d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyDon Mateo$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,8831,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT42.80x3d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyEnter a profile name$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,8831,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT42.80x3d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby! Tack タック$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,8831,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT42.80x6d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyBOT Dora$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,8831,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT42.80x6d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby🌸 ElectroTheCat 🌸$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,8831,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT42.80x7d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby⭐M@tteS⭐$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,8831,883 HOTPIZZA_POINT42.80x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New)weapon · RestrictedForever Young$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$39.2439.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.89x6m

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedDanjgem$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$26.5626.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.60x11m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · ClassifiedEgglertree$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$34.9334.93 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x12m

USP-S | Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classifiedEgglertree$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$28.8628.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.66x12m

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)gloves · goldblandi#rustysaloon$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$61.5861.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.40x14m

AUG | Random Access (Factory New)weapon · restrictedChazam Carai$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$11.6811.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.27x14m

Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil specelbombaxdxd$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$15.5015.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.35x17m

USP-S | Ancient Visions (Factory New)weapon · Restrictedelbombaxdxd$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$39.2439.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.89x17m

MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil specFYGA$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$38.6038.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.88x20m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Death's Head (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedCuriousCoffee$44.0044 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.9917.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.41x31m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.59%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$44.00	88.59%	40
3 Nov, 15:57 UTC	$44.00	88.95%	40
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$44.00	89.49%	40

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.6%Covert 0.2%#ffd700 0.3%rare 2.5%gold 1.6%covert knife 1.8%classified 32.0%Restricted 7.0%mil spec 14.0%Classified 9.0%Mil Spec Grade 6.0%restricted 10.0%Rare 4.0%uncommon 3.0%best hit $1,883 (42.80x)