Hazardous Habanero

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hellfire Cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$220.00

220 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

85.92%

EV $189.03 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.09%

4,881 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

33.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.00%±5.17602 openings

7 days

85.54%±2.064,072 openings

30 days

85.09%±1.884,881 openings

since tracking started

85.09%±1.884,881 openings

80.0%86.0%92.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	602	86.00%±5.17	+0.0σ	odds
7d	4,072	85.54%±2.06	−0.7σ	odds
30d	4,881	85.09%±1.88	−1.2σ	odds
All	4,881	85.09%±1.88	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,898 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700	1 in 500	$1,440 1,440 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	9	9.8	0.92×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$1,153 1,153 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	9	9.8	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 333	$1,150 1,150 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	20	14.7	1.36×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$1,011 1,011 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	15	19.6	0.77×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 250	$838 838 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	13	19.6	0.66×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 250	$733 733 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	20	19.6	1.02×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 200	$604 604 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	18	24.5	0.73×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 200	$575 575 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	14	24.5	0.57×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 200	$512 512 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	21	24.5	0.86×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 200	$487 487 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	30	24.5	1.22×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 167	$479 479 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	29	29.4	0.99×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 143	$405 405 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	35	34.3	1.02×
★ Talon Knifeknife · covert	1 in 111	$345 345 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	34	44.1	0.77×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 111	$333 333 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	45	44.1	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$265 265 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	52	49.0	1.06×
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 100	$256 256 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	33	49.0	0.67×
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$247 247 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	53	49.0	1.08×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 50	$239 239 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	86	98.0	0.88×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$222 222 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	100	98.0	1.02×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Knives	1 in 50	$222 222 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	106	98.0	1.08×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$215 215 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	102	98.0	1.04×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$212 212 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	144	146.9	0.98×
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$206 206 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	209	195.9	1.07×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25	$205 205 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	187	195.9	0.95×
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$194 194 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	204	195.9	1.04×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$190 190 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	217	195.9	1.11×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Phase 3	1 in 25	$173 173 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	195	195.9	1.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 20	$169 169 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	239	244.9	0.98×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$166 166 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	234	244.9	0.96×
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$165 165 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	217	244.9	0.89×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$157 157 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	245	244.9	1.00×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$153 153 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	179	195.9	0.91×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 20	$149 149 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	249	244.9	1.02×
★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$144 144 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	214	195.9	1.09×
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 25	$134 134 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	40	195.9	0.20×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 25	$114 114 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	236	195.9	1.20×
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 33	$109 109 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	153	146.9	1.04×
★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$91.68 91.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	151	146.9	1.03×
★ Kukri Knifeknife · covert	1 in 33	$88.73 88.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	136	146.9	0.93×
★ Ursus Knifeknife · covert	1 in 50	$78.22 78.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	106	98.0	1.08×
★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$72.08 72.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	78	98.0	0.80×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 33	$65.59 65.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	147	146.9	1.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 50	$43.82 43.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	92	98.0	0.94×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700Sammy39$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4401,440 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.55x18m

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700F4TİH$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4401,440 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.55x2h

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700Baulin IV$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4401,440 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.55x17h

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700COOOLER$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4401,440 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.55x1d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700auguste$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4401,440 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.55x3d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700Gert Von Fuck You$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4401,440 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.55x5d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700Atlas$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4401,440 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.55x6d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700GuardN$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4401,440 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.55x7d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700Gangstic$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4401,440 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.55x7d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covertDead Watcher$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,3101,310 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.95x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Ursus Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeЭгрегор$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$72.0872.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.33x12m

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeШАМИЛЬxКРОВОСТОК$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$194194 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.88x13m

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)StatTrak · knife · Phase 3franczesko paltegumi$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$173173 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x15m

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #ffd700Sammy39$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,4401,440 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.55x18m

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knifefat pinguin$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$194194 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.88x30m

★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · Knivesfat pinguin$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$222222 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.01x30m

★ Flip Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covertI-stekan-I$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$205205 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.93x32m

★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Factory New)knife · covertI-stekan-I$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$114114 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.52x32m

★ Talon Knife | Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear)knife · covertfnc$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$247247 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.12x36m

★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3CuriousCoffee$220220 HOTPIZZA_POINT$333333 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.51x36m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 85.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$220	85.92%	43
3 Nov, 15:57 UTC	$220	86.36%	43
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$220	86.44%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 0.2%covert 34.8%covert knife 57.9%gold 1.1%Knives 2.0%other 4.0%best hit $1,440 (6.55x)