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Deadly Pepper X

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Hellfire Cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$550.00
550 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
87.92%
EV $483.54 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.82%
2,565 openings, odds method
Variance
0.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
39.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
87.00%±4.39318 openings
7 days
87.08%±1.672,211 openings
30 days
86.82%±1.552,565 openings
since tracking started
86.82%±1.552,565 openings
82.0%87.0%92.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h31887.00%±4.39−0.4σodds
7d2,21187.08%±1.67−1.0σodds
30d2,56586.82%±1.55−1.4σodds
All2,56586.82%±1.55−1.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,569 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 1,000$2,721 2,721 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%22.60.78×
★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epic1 in 1,000$2,361 2,361 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%32.61.17×
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 500$2,135 2,135 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%45.10.78×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B1 in 500$1,879 1,879 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%15.10.19×
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 41 in 500$1,632 1,632 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%55.10.97×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 500$1,400 1,400 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%65.11.17×
★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd7001 in 333$1,241 1,241 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%77.70.91×
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 333$1,159 1,159 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%87.71.04×
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 11 in 250$1,026 1,026 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%510.30.49×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic1 in 200$1,018 1,018 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%1612.81.25×
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 167$984 984 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%1815.41.17×
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 167$916 916 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%1315.40.84×
★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 167$914 914 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%1115.40.71×
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny1 in 167$890 890 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%1515.40.97×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 167$861 861 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%915.40.58×
★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 167$843 843 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%915.40.58×
★ Karambit | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 167$802 802 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%1615.41.04×
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 143$787 787 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2018.01.11×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Bright Water (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 143$715 715 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%1718.00.95×
★ Karambit | Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 143$695 695 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%918.00.50×
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 143$695 695 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%2218.01.22×
★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 125$655 655 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%1720.60.83×
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 100$641 641 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%2925.71.13×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 100$628 628 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%2625.71.01×
★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 100$622 622 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%2125.70.82×
★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 100$606 606 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%1925.70.74×
★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold1 in 100$604 604 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2125.70.82×
★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 21 in 100$600 600 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2525.70.97×
★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · gold1 in 100$560 560 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2225.70.86×
★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 100$560 560 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2425.70.93×
★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 50$535 535 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%5051.40.97×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 50$520 520 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%6951.41.34×
★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd7001 in 25$519 519 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.3%107102.81.04×
★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 25$508 508 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.2%114102.81.11×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · Immortal1 in 25$504 504 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.2%99102.80.96×
★ Karambit | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 20$501 501 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.2%119128.40.93×
★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 20$489 489 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.1%138128.41.07×
★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 20$481 481 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.0%141128.41.10×
★ Karambit | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert1 in 20$448 448 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.6%125128.40.97×
★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20$433 433 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.5%138128.41.07×
★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 20$404 404 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.2%130128.41.01×
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 20$395 395 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.1%43128.40.33×
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · knifes1 in 20$363 363 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.8%109128.40.85×
★ Talon Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife1 in 20$360 360 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%150128.41.17×
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 20$351 351 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.6%128128.41.00×
★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20$320 320 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%132128.41.03×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 25$289 289 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%92102.80.90×
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 21 in 43$247 247 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%5159.10.86×
★ Nomad Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 45$234 234 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%5356.50.94×
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B1 in 45$227 227 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%5456.50.96×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2Eraserhead$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,7212,721 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.95x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2FoxJohnnies$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,7212,721 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.95x
★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epicColdhand$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,3612,361 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.29x
★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epicBANG$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,3612,361 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.29x
★ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · epicДруг Глиста$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,3612,361 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.29x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Kriegbeat$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,1352,135 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.88x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Rippy$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,1352,135 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.88x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4<3 х_0$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,1352,135 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.88x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4ПингвиНагибатор$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2,1352,135 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.88x
★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4BGender_child$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,8791,879 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.42x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendaryposeidonskiy?$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$535535 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.97x
★ Skeleton Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendarySeranor$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$320320 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.58x
★ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · knifescelso russian bro$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$363363 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.66x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · CovertBig Boss$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$520520 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.95x
★ M9 Bayonet | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeposeidonskiy?$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$489489 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.89x
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertSeranor$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$351351 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.64x
★ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covertcelso russian bro$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$351351 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.64x
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertBig Boss$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$395395 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x
★ M9 Bayonet | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertBonzai$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$395395 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x
★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertAntman218$550550 HOTPIZZA_POINT$433433 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.79x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC$55087.92%50
3 Nov, 15:57 UTC$55087.94%50
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$55088.00%50
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 37.2%epic 0.6%#EB4B4B 2.4%covert knife 24.9%#ffd700 4.3%sunny 1.2%gold 6.4%legendary 7.0%Covert 7.0%Immortal 4.0%knifes 5.0%best hit $2,721 (4.95x)