Sneaky Squirrel 3%
A case on Hotpizza.gg (Epic Risky Drop), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.
Price
$32.23
32.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
62.70%
EV $20.21 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
58.02%
8,820 openings, odds method
Variance
11.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 63
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
97.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,841 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 1,000 | $1,081 1,081 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 5.4% | 9 | 8.8 | 1.02× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife | 1 in 1,000 | $800 800 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 4.0% | 9 | 8.8 | 1.02× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife | 1 in 500 | $756 756 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 7.5% | 19 | 17.7 | 1.07× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 500 | $702 702 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 6.9% | 14 | 17.7 | 0.79× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · legendary | 1 in 100 | $639 639 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 31.6% | 80 | 88.4 | 0.90× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert | 1 in 71 | $562 562 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 38.9% | 111 | 123.8 | 0.90× |
| Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph Capsulecontainer | 32.3% | $1.58 1.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 2.5% | 2,803 | 2855.6 | 0.98× |
| Half-Life: Alyx Sticker Capsulecontainer | 32.3% | $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.6% | 2,966 | 2855.6 | 1.04× |
| Slid3 Capsulecontainer · #B0C3D9 | 32.4% | $1.00 1 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.6% | 2,830 | 2864.5 | 0.99× |
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knifeSharkmaid$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1401,140 HOTPIZZA_POINT35.37x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife✪Borjomi✪$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1401,140 HOTPIZZA_POINT35.37x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knifeAdriaN ✞$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1401,140 HOTPIZZA_POINT35.37x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knifenoexik$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1401,140 HOTPIZZA_POINT35.37x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knifeGushzx$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,1401,140 HOTPIZZA_POINT35.37x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knifeCpt. Jack$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0811,081 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.55x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knifeHarumi$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0811,081 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.55x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knifeA gay pfp$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0811,081 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.55x
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knifeFXrenats$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1,0811,081 HOTPIZZA_POINT33.55x
★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeNeo_Bahamut_19$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$802802 HOTPIZZA_POINT24.87x
Latest dropsnewest first
Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph CapsulecontainerMagic Dwarf$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.581.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.05x
Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph CapsulecontainerMagic Dwarf$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.581.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.05x
Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph CapsulecontainerShøck$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.581.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.05x
Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph CapsulecontainerRiçk Sanchez$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.581.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.05x
Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph CapsulecontainerRiçk Sanchez$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.581.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.05x
Half-Life: Alyx Sticker CapsulecontainerBlackskin$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.03x
Berlin 2019 Legends Autograph Capsulecontainergrumbt$32.2332.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.581.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 62.70%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:05 UTC | $32.23 | 62.70% | 9 |
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $32.23 | 63.12% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 64.9%covert knife 0.3%legendary 1.0%covert 1.4%#B0C3D9 32.4%best hit $1,140 (35.37x)