Clutch Cat 5%

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Epic Risky Drop), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$13.31

13.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

75.15%

EV $10.00 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

64.50%

11K openings, odds method

Variance

14.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 63

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

65.31%±19.781,377 openings

7 days

63.46%±7.848,778 openings

30 days

64.50%±7.0111K openings

since tracking started

64.50%±7.0111K openings

45.0%65.3%85.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 75.20% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (57.49% – 71.51%, 10,990 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,377	65.31%±19.8	−1.0σ	odds
7d	8,778	63.46%±7.84	−2.9σ	odds
30d	11K	64.50%±7.01	−3.0σ	odds
All	11K	64.50%±7.01	−3.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$656 656 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.6%	11	11.0	1.00×
★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$587 587 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.9%	9	11.0	0.82×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$401 401 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	8	11.0	0.73×
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 1,000	$380 380 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	3	11.0	0.27×
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic	1 in 500	$312 312 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.2%	11	22.1	0.50×
★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 100	$250 250 HOTPIZZA_POINT	25.0%	98	110.3	0.89×
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 29	$142 142 HOTPIZZA_POINT	48.2%	96	375.0	0.26×
Sticker \| Fnatic \| 2020 RMRsticker · Rare	23.8%	$0.06 0.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.1%	2,663	2619.2	1.02×
Sticker \| Spirit \| 2020 RMRsticker · 7	23.8%	$0.06 0.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.1%	2,610	2619.2	1.00×
Sticker \| Evil Geniuses \| 2020 RMRsticker · violet	23.8%	$0.01 0.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.0%	2,647	2619.2	1.01×
Sticker \| Ninjas in Pyjamas \| 2020 RMRsticker · Rare	23.8%	$0.01 0.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.0%	2,636	2619.2	1.01×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 20:06 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertCalamity522$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$656656 HOTPIZZA_POINT49.30x1d

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert0lle.$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$656656 HOTPIZZA_POINT49.30x1d

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertRavno [DPCK] Rath$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$656656 HOTPIZZA_POINT49.30x2d

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert怜幽$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$656656 HOTPIZZA_POINT49.30x3d

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert-Vent_Cleaner-$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$656656 HOTPIZZA_POINT49.30x4d

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertBuligrande$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$656656 HOTPIZZA_POINT49.30x5d

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertIt's Always Ninjas$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$656656 HOTPIZZA_POINT49.30x5d

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertPippo$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$656656 HOTPIZZA_POINT49.30x6d

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertFreedom$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$656656 HOTPIZZA_POINT49.30x6d

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertpceboris70$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$656656 HOTPIZZA_POINT49.30x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Spirit | 2020 RMRsticker · 71emerson1$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.060.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.00x3m

Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2020 RMRsticker · RareACE_Gio$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.010.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.00x6m

Sticker | Evil Geniuses | 2020 RMRsticker · violetGoopy rustchance.com$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.010.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.00x6m

Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2020 RMRsticker · RareAtlemuo$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.010.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.00x6m

Sticker | Spirit | 2020 RMRsticker · 7ISHITONPPL$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.060.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.00x7m

Sticker | Spirit | 2020 RMRsticker · 7Father Davis$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.060.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.00x7m

Sticker | Fnatic | 2020 RMRsticker · Rarebraixen gaming$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.060.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.00x10m

Sticker | Spirit | 2020 RMRsticker · 7braixen gaming$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.060.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.00x10m

Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 2020 RMRsticker · Rarelerqqxx$13.3113.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.010.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.00x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.15%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$13.31	75.15%	11
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$13.31	75.22%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed7 23.8%covert 0.3%knifes 0.1%epic 0.2%covert knife 4.4%Rare 47.5%violet 23.8%best hit $656 (49.30x)