Tactician Panther 4%
A case on Hotpizza.gg (Epic Risky Drop), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.
Price
$66.00
66 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
101.50%
EV $66.99 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.21%
6,888 openings, odds method
Variance
30.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 63
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
96.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,907 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 1,000 | $6,082 6,082 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 9.1% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.16× |
| ★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1 | 1 in 1,000 | $4,512 4,512 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 6.7% | 3 | 6.9 | 0.43× |
| ★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $2,452 2,452 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 11.0% | 18 | 20.7 | 0.87× |
| ★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · legendary | 1 in 333 | $2,147 2,147 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 9.6% | 26 | 20.7 | 1.25× |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · #ffd700 · Phase 4 | 1 in 250 | $1,836 1,836 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 11.0% | 20 | 27.6 | 0.72× |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3 | 1 in 250 | $1,769 1,769 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 10.6% | 24 | 27.6 | 0.87× |
| ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 42 | $1,000 1,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 35.8% | 167 | 165.8 | 1.01× |
| Chroma Casecontainer · Base Grade | 24.0% | $4.95 4.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.8% | 1,634 | 1657.7 | 0.99× |
| Chroma 2 Casecontainer · base | 24.0% | $4.47 4.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.6% | 1,634 | 1657.7 | 0.99× |
| Gamma 2 Casecontainer · #B0C3D9 | 24.0% | $4.10 4.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.5% | 1,660 | 1657.7 | 1.00× |
| Gamma Casecontainer · base | 24.0% | $3.86 3.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 1.4% | 1,713 | 1657.7 | 1.03× |
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire♉HAIL♉$66.0066 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0826,082 HOTPIZZA_POINT92.15x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphirePawPawPanda$66.0066 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0826,082 HOTPIZZA_POINT92.15x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireGopherPics$66.0066 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0826,082 HOTPIZZA_POINT92.15x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphireclickz$66.0066 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0826,082 HOTPIZZA_POINT92.15x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireCharaZX$66.0066 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0826,082 HOTPIZZA_POINT92.15x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireKirill_DeLorean$66.0066 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0826,082 HOTPIZZA_POINT92.15x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireP A N D A$66.0066 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0826,082 HOTPIZZA_POINT92.15x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire☢-Thiago-☢$66.0066 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6,0826,082 HOTPIZZA_POINT92.15x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Shadowblades$66.0066 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4,5124,512 HOTPIZZA_POINT68.36x
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1Black_Man10$66.0066 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4,5124,512 HOTPIZZA_POINT68.36x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 101.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $66.00 | 101.50% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.3%legendary 0.3%#ffd700 0.4%Base Grade 24.0%base 48.0%#B0C3D9 24.0%best hit $6,082 (92.15x)