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Rush Rat

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Epic Risky Drop), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$1.00
1 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
117.79%
EV $1.18 from 33 items
Observed RTP, 30d
111.71%
44.8K openings, odds method
Variance
15.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.3%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
106.04%±10.505,328 openings
7 days
112.95%±3.9437.8K openings
30 days
111.71%±3.6244.8K openings
since tracking started
111.71%±3.6244.8K openings
95.0%106.7%118.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 117.80% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (108.09% – 115.34%, 44,788 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h5,328106.04%±10.5−2.2σodds
7d37.8K112.95%±3.94−2.4σodds
30d44.8K111.71%±3.62−3.3σodds
All44.8K111.71%±3.62−3.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Charm | 8 Ball IGLcharm · Ancient1 in 333$44.69 44.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT11.4%125134.70.93×
Charm | Lil' Eldritchcharm · Ancient1 in 333$30.95 30.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.9%122134.70.91×
Charm | Quick Silvercharm · red1 in 333$26.81 26.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.8%115134.70.85×
Charm | Hot Howlcharm · Ancient1 in 333$23.82 23.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.1%135134.71.00×
Charm | Baby Karat Tcharm · #eb4b4b1 in 333$16.80 16.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.3%153134.71.14×
Charm | Lil' Fernocharm · #eb4b4b1 in 333$15.83 15.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.0%109134.70.81×
Charm | Glitter Bombcharm · red1 in 250$13.98 13.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.7%171179.60.95×
Charm | Hot Wurstcharm · #eb4b4b1 in 250$11.80 11.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.0%180179.61.00×
Charm | Diamond Dogcharm · rare1 in 250$7.06 7.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%166179.60.92×
Charm | Lil' Happycharm · #d32ce61 in 250$6.30 6.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%161179.60.90×
Charm | Lil' Herocharm · #d32ce61 in 200$4.99 4.99 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%194224.50.86×
Charm | Lil' Monstercharm · uncommon1 in 143$3.60 3.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%296314.20.94×
Charm | Die-cast AKcharm · #8847ff1 in 100$2.97 2.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%404448.90.90×
Charm | Lil' Goopcharm · #8847ff1 in 100$2.11 2.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%415448.90.92×
Charm | Lil' Momentscharm · #8847ff1 in 100$1.86 1.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%385448.90.86×
Charm | Lil' Squirtcharm · #d32ce61 in 100$1.74 1.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%401448.90.89×
Charm | Lil' Prickcharm · #d32ce61 in 63$1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%675718.20.94×
Charm | Pocket Popcharm · #8847ff1 in 40$1.19 1.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%9911122.30.88×
Charm | Disco MACcharm · uncommon1 in 33$1.16 1.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%1,1741346.70.87×
Charm | Lil' Teacupcharm · #8847ff1 in 33$1.02 1.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%1,2101346.70.90×
Charm | Chicken Lil'charm · uncommon1 in 33$0.73 0.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%1,3721346.71.02×
Charm | That's Bananascharm · uncommon1 in 33$0.64 0.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%1,4081346.71.05×
Charm | POP Artcharm · #8847ff1 in 25$0.55 0.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%1,7941795.61.00×
Charm | Hot Handscharm · #8847ff1 in 25$0.46 0.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.6%1,8071795.61.01×
Charm | Lil' No. 2charm · #4b69ff1 in 25$0.42 0.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%1,8901795.61.05×
Charm | Pinch O' Saltcharm · uncommon1 in 25$0.41 0.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.4%1,8261795.61.02×
Charm | Hot Saucecharm · uncommon1 in 17$0.39 0.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%2,7392693.41.02×
Charm | Whittle Knifecharm · Rare1 in 17$0.36 0.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%2,7252693.41.01×
Charm | Lil' Squatchcharm · #8847ff1 in 13$0.34 0.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%3,7173591.21.04×
Charm | Lil' Crasscharm · uncommon1 in 11$0.30 0.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%4,1304040.11.02×
Charm | Lil' Zencharm · #4b69ff10.1%$0.29 0.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%4,6374533.91.02×
Charm | Lil' Cap Guncharm · Rare10.1%$0.23 0.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.0%4,7014533.91.04×
Charm | Backsplashcharm · #4b69ff10.1%$0.21 0.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%4,5624533.91.01×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Charm | Hot Handscharm · #8847ffintrenity$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.460.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.46x
Charm | Backsplashcharm · #4b69ffFortnite Balls$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.210.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.21x
Charm | Whittle Knifecharm · RareBriss$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.360.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.36x
Charm | POP Artcharm · #8847ffGollum$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.550.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x
Charm | Hot Saucecharm · uncommonGollum$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.390.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.39x
Charm | Lil' Momentscharm · #8847ffgaZiRovannayA voDka$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.861.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.86x
Charm | Die-cast AKcharm · #8847ffChaoticTTV$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.972.97 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.97x
Charm | Hot Saucecharm · uncommonboing I guess$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.390.39 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.39x
Charm | Chicken Lil'charm · uncommonCyber | Moon$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.730.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.73x
Charm | Lil' Squatchcharm · #8847ffEmy^ | 王女$1.001 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.340.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 117.79%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$1.00117.79%33
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 0.9%red 0.7%#eb4b4b 1.0%rare 0.4%#d32ce6 3.5%uncommon 28.7%#8847ff 24.5%#4b69ff 24.2%Rare 16.1%best hit —