Peeky Penguin 2%
A case on Hotpizza.gg (Epic Risky Drop), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.
Price
$166.00
166 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
90.60%
EV $150.40 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.74%
5,238 openings, odds method
Variance
40.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 63
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,264 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $16.2K 16,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 10.8% | 9 | 5.3 | 1.71× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary | 1 in 500 | $10.5K 10,531 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 14.0% | 9 | 10.5 | 0.85× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 250 | $8,347 8,347 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 22.2% | 21 | 21.1 | 1.00× |
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 111 | $6,409 6,409 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 38.4% | 47 | 47.4 | 0.99× |
| Chem-Haz Specialist | SWATagent · blue | 24.5% | $28.26 28.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 4.6% | 1,286 | 1289.7 | 1.00× |
| Seal Team 6 Soldier | NSWC SEALagent · distinguished | 24.5% | $20.90 20.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 3.4% | 1,276 | 1289.7 | 0.99× |
| 'Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACPagent · superior | 24.5% | $20.38 20.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 3.3% | 1,307 | 1289.7 | 1.01× |
| Markus Delrow | FBI HRTagent · violet | 24.9% | $20.31 20.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 3.4% | 1,309 | 1310.7 | 1.00× |
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · coverthyu cocu$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.2K16,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT97.43x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertSlavoj Žižek$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.2K16,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT97.43x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertЯ НЕ В ФОРМЕ#SORRY$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.2K16,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT97.43x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertChef Dave$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.2K16,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT97.43x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertBellosmell$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.2K16,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT97.43x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertHyzer$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.2K16,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT97.43x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertłuki szybkie palce$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.2K16,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT97.43x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertChoco$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.2K16,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT97.43x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New)weapon · covertFate$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$16.2K16,174 HOTPIZZA_POINT97.43x
AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendaryHappiLP$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.5K10,531 HOTPIZZA_POINT63.44x
Latest dropsnewest first
'Two Times' McCoy | USAF TACPagent · superiorChrome$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.3820.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.12x
Markus Delrow | FBI HRTagent · violetIncredible$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.3120.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.12x
Markus Delrow | FBI HRTagent · violetIncredible$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.3120.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.12x
Markus Delrow | FBI HRTagent · violet⎛⎝Galorch⎠⎞$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.3120.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.12x
Seal Team 6 Soldier | NSWC SEALagent · distinguished☯•S么MUR么I•☯$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.9020.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.13x
Markus Delrow | FBI HRTagent · violet⎛⎝Galorch⎠⎞$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.3120.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.12x
Markus Delrow | FBI HRTagent · violet☯•S么MUR么I•☯$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.3120.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.12x
Seal Team 6 Soldier | NSWC SEALagent · distinguishedFenghu 风花雪月$166166 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.9020.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.13x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.60%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $166 | 90.60% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.4%legendary 0.2%blue 24.5%distinguished 24.5%superior 24.5%violet 24.9%best hit $16.2K (97.43x)