Bunny Howl 2%
A case on Hotpizza.gg (Epic Risky Drop), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.
Price
$122.00
122 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
125.25%
EV $152.80 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
135.08%
5,727 openings, odds method
Variance
69.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,737 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 1,000 | $17.2K 17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 11.2% | 8 | 5.7 | 1.39× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband | 1 in 1,000 | $12K 12,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 7.9% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.22× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · legendary | 1 in 1,000 | $9,693 9,693 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 6.3% | 9 | 5.7 | 1.57× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)weapon · contraband | 1 in 1,000 | $7,837 7,837 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 5.1% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.22× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband | 1 in 1,000 | $6,063 6,063 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 4.0% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Well-Worn)weapon · contraband | 1 in 333 | $5,728 5,728 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 11.2% | 14 | 17.2 | 0.81× |
| M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband | 1 in 83 | $5,266 5,266 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 41.4% | 69 | 68.8 | 1.00× |
| Michael Syfers | FBI Sniperagent · pink | 24.5% | $20.90 20.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 3.4% | 1,408 | 1405.6 | 1.00× |
| Enforcer | Phoenixagent · blue | 24.5% | $20.50 20.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 3.3% | 1,411 | 1405.6 | 1.00× |
| Prof. Shahmat | Elite Crewagent · pink | 24.5% | $19.90 19.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 3.2% | 1,438 | 1405.6 | 1.02× |
| 'The Doctor' Romanov | Sabreagent · red | 24.5% | $19.01 19.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT | 3.0% | 1,362 | 1405.6 | 0.97× |
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandегорка (почти талант)$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT140.7x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandsay10$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT140.7x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandGen$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT140.7x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandKingi$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT140.7x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandL-L$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT140.7x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandNO NAME$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT140.7x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandChoco$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT140.7x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband123$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$17.2K17,162 HOTPIZZA_POINT140.7x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contrabandfLshd$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12K12,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT98.36x
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband♥♥♥evaaa_ni♥♥♥$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$12K12,000 HOTPIZZA_POINT98.36x
Latest dropsnewest first
Michael Syfers | FBI Sniperagent · pinkBrumos #24 ◢◤$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.9020.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.17x
Enforcer | Phoenixagent · blueDetah (goodbye Rushia)$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.5020.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.17x
Enforcer | Phoenixagent · blueDetah (goodbye Rushia)$122122 HOTPIZZA_POINT$20.5020.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 125.25%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 04:28 UTC | $122 | 125.25% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcontraband 1.9%legendary 0.1%pink 49.0%blue 24.5%red 24.5%best hit $17.2K (140.7x)