Sniper Hunter

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Covert Hunters), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$225.00

225 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

86.27%

EV $194.12 from 90 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.43%

4,721 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.99%±10.46567 openings

7 days

87.59%±3.943,992 openings

30 days

86.43%±3.624,721 openings

since tracking started

86.43%±3.624,721 openings

78.0%89.0%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	567	88.99%±10.5	+0.5σ	odds
7d	3,992	87.59%±3.94	+0.7σ	odds
30d	4,721	86.43%±3.62	+0.1σ	odds
All	4,721	86.43%±3.62	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values90 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,735 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$4,523 4,523 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	8	4.7	1.69×
Negev \| Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$3,385 3,385 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	2	4.7	0.42×
Negev \| Mjölnir (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$2,798 2,798 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	7	4.7	1.48×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$2,336 2,336 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	6	4.7	1.27×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$1,403 1,403 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	5	4.7	1.06×
M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$1,367 1,367 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	6	4.7	1.27×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$1,116 1,116 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	8	9.5	0.84×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 500	$1,084 1,084 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	9	9.5	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$1,031 1,031 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	16	9.5	1.69×
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$974 974 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	7	9.5	0.74×
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$954 954 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	11	14.2	0.77×
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$832 832 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	15	14.2	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$821 821 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	13	14.2	0.92×
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 333	$784 784 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	17	14.2	1.20×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$777 777 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	13	14.2	0.92×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$771 771 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	12	14.2	0.84×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$756 756 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	14	14.2	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$666 666 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	19	18.9	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$664 664 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	19	18.9	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$638 638 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	24	18.9	1.27×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 250	$613 613 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	20	18.9	1.06×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$613 613 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	37	23.7	1.56×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$595 595 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	17	23.7	0.72×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$567 567 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	21	28.4	0.74×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$565 565 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	31	28.4	1.09×
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$563 563 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	20	28.4	0.70×
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$555 555 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	28	28.4	0.99×
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 167	$543 543 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	32	28.4	1.13×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$516 516 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	19	28.4	0.67×
CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$514 514 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	27	28.4	0.95×
MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$512 512 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	24	28.4	0.84×
G3SG1 \| Chronos (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 167	$500 500 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	18	28.4	0.63×
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 167	$482 482 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	32	28.4	1.13×
G3SG1 \| Chronos (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$477 477 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	26	33.1	0.78×
MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$464 464 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	26	33.1	0.78×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 143	$462 462 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	40	33.1	1.21×
MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$430 430 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	30	33.1	0.91×
MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 143	$426 426 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	29	33.1	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 125	$402 402 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	33	37.9	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 125	$364 364 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	47	37.9	1.24×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$307 307 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	35	37.9	0.92×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$240 240 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	32	37.9	0.84×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$233 233 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	33	37.9	0.87×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$221 221 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	44	37.9	1.16×
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$198 198 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	42	37.9	1.11×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$195 195 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	34	37.9	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$194 194 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	45	47.3	0.95×
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$193 193 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	64	47.3	1.35×
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$189 189 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	46	47.3	0.97×
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$183 183 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	51	47.3	1.08×
Nova \| Baroque Orange (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$166 166 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	51	47.3	1.08×
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$164 164 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	47	47.3	0.99×
Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$161 161 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	40	47.3	0.84×
Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$153 153 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	51	47.3	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 100	$147 147 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	47	47.3	0.99×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$146 146 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	42	47.3	0.89×
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$141 141 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	47	47.3	0.99×
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$140 140 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	60	47.3	1.27×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 100	$139 139 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	58	47.3	1.22×
Nova \| Baroque Orange (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$138 138 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	35	47.3	0.74×
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$138 138 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	51	47.3	1.08×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$137 137 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	44	47.3	0.93×
AUG \| Sand Storm (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$129 129 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.7%	31	47.3	0.65×
MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$125 125 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	54	47.3	1.14×
MP9 \| Stained Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$124 124 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	43	47.3	0.91×
XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$123 123 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	49	47.3	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	65	47.3	1.37×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$120 120 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	43	47.3	0.91×
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$120 120 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	52	47.3	1.10×
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$119 119 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	42	47.3	0.89×
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$119 119 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	95	94.7	1.00×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$108 108 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	90	94.7	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$90.58 90.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	79	94.7	0.83×
XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$87.41 87.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	89	94.7	0.94×
AUG \| Sand Storm (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 50	$85.02 85.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	85	94.7	0.90×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 50	$84.92 84.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	102	94.7	1.08×
AUG \| Sand Storm (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$79.74 79.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	152	142.0	1.07×
XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 33	$77.82 77.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	139	142.0	0.98×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 33	$76.10 76.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.2%	142	142.0	1.00×
AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$70.82 70.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	147	142.0	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$69.16 69.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	145	142.0	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$65.68 65.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	140	142.0	0.99×
M4A4 \| Polysoup (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$63.42 63.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	143	142.0	1.01×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$62.70 62.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	143	142.0	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 33	$61.36 61.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	143	142.0	1.01×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$56.57 56.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	146	142.0	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Starcade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 33	$55.42 55.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	148	142.0	1.04×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$35.32 35.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	138	142.0	0.97×
P90 \| Attack Vector (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 33	$35.14 35.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.5%	150	142.0	1.06×
CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$18.33 18.33 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.3%	153	142.0	1.08×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedATastyPickleJR[Ping from Pluto]$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4,5234,523 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.10x1d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedДура$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4,5234,523 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.10x1d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMemaserya$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4,5234,523 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.10x4d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedLemon ツ$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4,5234,523 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.10x4d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedbifrutas enjoyer$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4,5234,523 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.10x5d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedPecivko (Pastry)$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4,5234,523 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.10x6d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedFortis$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4,5234,523 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.10x6d

M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New)weapon · classifiedShiroi$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4,5234,523 HOTPIZZA_POINT20.10x7d

Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classifiedFlick$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3,3853,385 HOTPIZZA_POINT15.05x3d

Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classifiedHiTU$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3,3853,385 HOTPIZZA_POINT15.05x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Starcade (Factory New)weapon · rareCaveman Jeff$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$364364 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.62x2m

XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Field-Tested)weapon · RestrictedFiskerxD$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$77.8277.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.35x3m

Desert Eagle | Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonChocolate 🦄🦄$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$61.3661.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.27x3m

MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedFUCK ISAC$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$832832 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.70x9m

Desert Eagle | Starcade (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonFUCK ISAC$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$61.3661.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.27x9m

AUG | Lil' Pig (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommonCapt. Grandpow$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$76.1076.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x9m

UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedClaraaa-$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$137137 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.61x10m

AUG | Sand Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · violetClaraaa-$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$70.8270.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.31x10m

AUG | Lil' Pig (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkA S P Ξ C T$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$62.7062.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.28x15m

UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedA S P Ξ C T$225225 HOTPIZZA_POINT$137137 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.61x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.27%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$225	86.27%	90

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 11.5%restricted 40.6%Classified 0.3%#8847ff 4.4%#d32ee6 2.0%pink 4.4%rare 4.8%violet 10.0%Mythical 5.0%Restricted 5.0%uncommon 12.0%best hit $4,523 (20.10x)