Emerald Hunter

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Covert Hunters), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$105.00
105 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
87.20%
EV $91.56 from 113 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.77%
5,750 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
61.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
85.30%±5.09677 openings
7 days
85.19%±1.914,786 openings
30 days
84.77%±1.755,750 openings
since tracking started
84.77%±1.755,750 openings
79.5%85.3%91.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.20% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.02% – 86.51%, 5,750 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h67785.30%±5.09−0.7σodds
7d4,78685.19%±1.91−2.0σodds
30d5,75084.77%±1.75−2.7σodds
All5,75084.77%±1.75−2.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values113 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,761 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$701 701 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%55.80.87×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · rare1 in 1,000$464 464 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%35.80.52×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$456 456 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%85.81.39×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$414 414 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%35.80.52×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$385 385 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%45.80.69×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 1,000$376 376 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%85.81.39×
AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,000$346 346 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%35.80.52×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 500$345 345 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%1311.51.13×
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 500$337 337 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%1111.50.95×
P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 500$304 304 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%1511.51.30×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 500$296 296 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%511.50.43×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 500$286 286 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%611.50.52×
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 500$284 284 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.6%1111.50.95×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 333$273 273 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%1217.30.69×
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 333$245 245 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%1317.30.75×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 333$243 243 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%1617.30.93×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 333$228 228 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%1317.30.75×
P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 333$227 227 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%1317.30.75×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 333$225 225 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%1317.30.75×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 333$221 221 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%1917.31.10×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 333$215 215 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%2217.31.27×
P90 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 333$213 213 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%2017.31.16×
P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 250$212 212 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%2923.01.26×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 250$207 207 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%1523.00.65×
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 250$203 203 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%1523.00.65×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 250$200 200 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%1423.00.61×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 250$197 197 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%2423.01.04×
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 200$197 197 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2628.80.90×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 200$195 195 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2228.80.76×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 200$195 195 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%2528.80.87×
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 200$183 183 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%2928.81.01×
P90 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 167$180 180 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%4234.61.22×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 167$179 179 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2734.60.78×
StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 167$177 177 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2534.60.72×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 167$177 177 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%2734.60.78×
M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 167$177 177 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%3234.60.93×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 167$177 177 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%3734.61.07×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 167$175 175 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%3334.60.95×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 167$174 174 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%3734.61.07×
AK-47 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 167$174 174 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%3534.61.01×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 167$167 167 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%3634.61.04×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 167$158 158 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%3434.60.98×
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 167$144 144 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%4434.61.27×
P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 111$137 137 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%4951.80.95×
StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 111$137 137 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%5151.80.98×
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red1 in 111$137 137 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%5951.81.14×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 111$129 129 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%6551.81.25×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 111$129 129 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%6151.81.18×
P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 111$126 126 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%4151.80.79×
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 111$124 124 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%6351.81.22×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 111$122 122 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%5451.81.04×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$122 122 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%6457.61.11×
P250 | See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%6157.61.06×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%5357.60.92×
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$120 120 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%4757.60.82×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$119 119 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%5457.60.94×
P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$118 118 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%6857.61.18×
AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 100$118 118 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%4157.60.71×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$117 117 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%4657.60.80×
AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$114 114 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%5357.60.92×
AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 100$112 112 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%6057.61.04×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 100$112 112 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%5257.60.90×
AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$111 111 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%6357.61.09×
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 100$108 108 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%5057.60.87×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$107 107 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%6057.61.04×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 100$106 106 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%4957.60.85×
StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$106 106 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%5957.61.02×
StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$103 103 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%5557.60.95×
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$103 103 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%5957.61.02×
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 100$101 101 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%4957.60.85×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$100 100 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%6757.61.16×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$99.59 99.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%4657.60.80×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$97.98 97.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.1%6957.61.20×
StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$95.45 95.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%5857.61.01×
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 100$93.48 93.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%5257.60.90×
P250 | See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 100$92.65 92.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%6157.61.06×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$91.36 91.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%6557.61.13×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$90.34 90.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%5457.60.94×
StatTrak™ P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$87.01 87.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%5957.61.02×
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 100$86.45 86.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%6257.61.08×
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 100$85.82 85.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%5857.61.01×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$85.74 85.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%6257.61.08×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 100$85.08 85.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%4957.60.85×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 100$83.88 83.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%6757.61.16×
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 100$82.03 82.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%5957.61.02×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 100$77.74 77.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%5157.60.89×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 100$77.68 77.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%6257.61.08×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$75.02 75.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%4457.60.76×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 100$74.77 74.77 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%6757.61.16×
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 100$73.09 73.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%5657.60.97×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$72.58 72.58 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%5457.60.94×
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 100$72.47 72.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%7057.61.22×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$70.80 70.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.8%6257.61.08×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$68.44 68.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%7057.61.22×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 100$67.56 67.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%5857.61.01×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$65.71 65.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%5857.61.01×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red1 in 100$64.61 64.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%4757.60.82×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 100$63.89 63.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.7%5557.60.95×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 50$24.29 24.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%137115.21.19×
Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 50$22.37 22.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%111115.20.96×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 50$21.08 21.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.5%110115.20.95×
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 50$20.60 20.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%117115.21.02×
SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee61 in 50$20.45 20.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%122115.21.06×
MAC-10 | Toybox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 50$20.41 20.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%120115.21.04×
AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 50$17.06 17.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%132115.21.15×
CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 50$16.03 16.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.4%115115.21.00×
M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 50$14.45 14.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.3%113115.20.98×
R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 50$10.43 10.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.2%104115.20.90×
PP-Bizon | High Roller (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 50$10.06 10.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.2%131115.21.14×
M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 50$8.89 8.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.2%128115.21.11×
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 50$8.22 8.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.2%120115.21.04×
Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 50$7.87 7.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.2%123115.21.07×
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 50$7.82 7.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.2%106115.20.92×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covertджозепе$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$701701 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.67x
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covertAmyyyy | 白い$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$701701 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.67x
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covertCo(u)m$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$701701 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.67x
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covertApophiz$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$701701 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.67x
AK-47 | Leet Museo (Factory New)weapon · covertSandro$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$701701 HOTPIZZA_POINT6.67x

Latest dropsnewest first

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertAbdrosel$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$177177 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.69x
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covertHarumi$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$120120 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.14x
R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkHaryayiar$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$10.4310.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.10x
MP9 | Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientAbdrosel$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$86.4586.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.82x
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covertHaryayiar$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$73.0973.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.70x
USP-S | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertForever Young$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$108108 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.03x
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertAzTech$105105 HOTPIZZA_POINT$63.8963.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.61x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.20%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$10587.20%113
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 55.1%rare 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.8%Covert 1.4%red 10.1%Ancient 2.5%classified 16.0%#d32ee6 2.0%pink 10.0%Legendary 2.0%best hit $701 (6.67x)