Monster "P"

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Monster Pizza), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$0.20

0.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

99.14%

EV $0.20 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d

101.36%

101K openings, odds method

Variance

38.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

81.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.19%±11.0012.1K openings

7 days

101.79%±4.1485.4K openings

30 days

101.36%±3.81101K openings

since tracking started

101.36%±3.81101K openings

81.5%94.0%106.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12.1K	93.19%±11.0	−1.1σ	odds
7d	85.4K	101.79%±4.14	+1.3σ	odds
30d	101K	101.36%±3.81	+1.1σ	odds
All	101K	101.36%±3.81	+1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 101K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 10,000	$118 118 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.0%	17	10.1	1.68×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$16.54 16.54 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	18	20.2	0.89×
R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 2,000	$7.56 7.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	46	50.5	0.91×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,429	$2.98 2.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	56	70.8	0.79×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 667	$2.30 2.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	144	151.6	0.95×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$1.61 1.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	287	303.2	0.95×
Galil AR \| Kami (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 250	$1.52 1.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	367	404.3	0.91×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 200	$1.44 1.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	465	505.4	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 167	$1.15 1.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	529	606.5	0.87×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 143	$1.09 1.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	655	707.5	0.93×
P250 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 125	$0.43 0.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	806	808.6	1.00×
Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 111	$0.35 0.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	907	909.7	1.00×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 67	$0.34 0.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	1,601	1516.1	1.06×
M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 50	$0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	2,114	2021.5	1.05×
FAMAS \| Teardown (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$0.29 0.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	2,007	2021.5	0.99×
Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$0.25 0.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	3,000	3032.3	0.99×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.24 0.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	2,014	2021.5	1.00×
Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 29	$0.22 0.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	3,525	3537.7	1.00×
P90 \| Reef Grief (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.18 0.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	5,532	5559.2	1.00×
PP-Bizon \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.16 0.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.6%	7,083	7075.3	1.00×
MAG-7 \| Insomnia (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$0.14 0.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.9%	6,934	7075.3	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 14	$0.13 0.13 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	7,094	7075.3	1.00×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$0.12 0.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	7,017	7075.3	0.99×
M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 14	$0.12 0.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	7,131	7075.3	1.01×
P250 \| Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$0.12 0.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	7,018	7075.3	0.99×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.11 0.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	7,168	7075.3	1.01×
M4A4 \| Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$0.11 0.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	7,154	7075.3	1.01×
MP7 \| Sunbaked (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer	1 in 14	$0.10 0.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	7,167	7075.3	1.01×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 25	$0.08 0.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	4,085	4043.0	1.01×
P250 \| Re.built (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 25	$0.08 0.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	3,992	4043.0	0.99×
PP-Bizon \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 33	$0.07 0.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.1%	3,057	3032.3	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Motorized (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 50	$0.06 0.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	2,086	2021.5	1.03×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4!Zicc ⇆ Buying Skins 24/7$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$118118 HOTPIZZA_POINT591.7x1d

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Noxious Ghoul$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$118118 HOTPIZZA_POINT591.7x1d

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Eye Of The Tiger$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$118118 HOTPIZZA_POINT591.7x1d

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Chum $0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$118118 HOTPIZZA_POINT591.7x2d

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Friday$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$118118 HOTPIZZA_POINT591.7x2d

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4GDM ♥ Poland™$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$118118 HOTPIZZA_POINT591.7x3d

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Hullaballoo$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$118118 HOTPIZZA_POINT591.7x3d

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Froze$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$118118 HOTPIZZA_POINT591.7x4d

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Roloo$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$118118 HOTPIZZA_POINT591.7x4d

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4Gorden$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$118118 HOTPIZZA_POINT591.7x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffFOEHAMMER$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.110.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55xnow

FAMAS | Teardown (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specBabyfacejosh1k$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.290.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.45xnow

PP-Bizon | Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffFOEHAMMER$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.160.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.80x9s

M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · UncommonBabyfacejosh1k$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.120.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.60x9s

FAMAS | Teardown (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specG6mb1t$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.290.29 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.45x28s

P90 | Reef Grief (Field-Tested)weapon · blue✌(ツ)ว🌟$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.180.18 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.90x33s

M4A4 | Zubastick (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecJack#RustCases.comrustchance.com$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.110.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x33s

FAMAS | Meow 36 (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffASM$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.110.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.55x33s

MP7 | Sunbaked (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerFOEHAMMER$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.100.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.50x33s

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialASM$0.200.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.120.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.60x35s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 99.14%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$0.20	99.14%	32

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%restricted 0.4%industrial 17.1%violet 0.8%milspec 30.4%#8847ff 1.1%Restricted 0.8%Rare 0.9%light blue 2.0%mil spec 2.0%#4b69ff 18.0%blue 12.5%Uncommon 7.0%consumer 7.0%best hit $118 (591.7x)