Monster "Z"

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Monster Pizza), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1.20

1.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

93.38%

EV $1.12 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.32%

43.8K openings, odds method

Variance

6.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

97.07%±6.525,393 openings

7 days

92.48%±2.4937.1K openings

30 days

92.32%±2.2943.8K openings

since tracking started

92.32%±2.2943.8K openings

89.5%96.8%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5,393	97.07%±6.52	+1.1σ	odds
7d	37.1K	92.48%±2.49	−0.7σ	odds
30d	43.8K	92.32%±2.29	−0.9σ	odds
All	43.8K	92.32%±2.29	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$165 165 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	8	4.4	1.82×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 714	$49.26 49.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	6.2%	52	61.4	0.85×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 500	$30.44 30.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.4%	79	87.8	0.90×
M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 286	$10.04 10.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	151	153.6	0.98×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 200	$8.24 8.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	203	219.4	0.93×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 200	$6.05 6.05 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	200	219.4	0.91×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$3.61 3.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.3%	285	307.1	0.93×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$2.60 2.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.6%	274	307.1	0.89×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$2.09 2.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	384	438.8	0.88×
Souvenir AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon	1 in 100	$1.91 1.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	427	438.8	0.97×
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$1.87 1.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	448	438.8	1.02×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 50	$1.79 1.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	890	877.6	1.01×
M4A4 \| Converter (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 50	$1.67 1.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	891	877.6	1.02×
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	892	877.6	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.50 1.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	889	877.6	1.01×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Allure (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$1.42 1.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	859	877.6	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$1.36 1.36 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	927	877.6	1.06×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$1.26 1.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	851	877.6	0.97×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.08 1.08 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	1,286	1316.3	0.98×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.96 0.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	2,178	2193.9	0.99×
M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$0.94 0.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	2,615	2632.7	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$0.89 0.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.6%	3,065	3071.5	1.00×
MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.85 0.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.3%	3,103	3071.5	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$0.83 0.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.9%	3,526	3466.4	1.02×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.74 0.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	3,065	3071.5	1.00×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.70 0.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	3,081	3071.5	1.00×
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$0.67 0.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	2,302	2632.7	0.87×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$0.55 0.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	2,558	2632.7	0.97×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$0.44 0.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	2,723	2632.7	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Wash me plz (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 20	$0.32 0.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	2,210	2193.9	1.01×
Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$0.23 0.23 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	1,785	1755.1	1.02×
MP9 \| Shredded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$0.15 0.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.4%	1,331	1316.3	1.01×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeПрорoк санбой$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT137.3x16h

★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeHendricu$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT137.3x1d

★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeSkola$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT137.3x1d

★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeFLEXkG$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT137.3x1d

★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife2004 Honda Civic$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT137.3x2d

★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifehEn1 respeita #soytanvoraz$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT137.3x3d

★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifedamian$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT137.3x4d

★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knifeOSRiddle$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$165165 HOTPIZZA_POINT137.3x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)weapon · violetgaZiRovannayA voDka$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.830.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x2m

Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecgaZiRovannayA voDka$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.670.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.56x2m

P90 | Vent Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetJ. Ziegler$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.700.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.58x2m

AK-47 | Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueJ. Ziegler$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.550.55 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.46x2m

M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec•ＫＥＲＯＺ•$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.940.94 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.78x3m

Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec•ＫＥＲＯＺ•$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.670.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.56x3m

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69fferoha$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.440.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.37x3m

M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)weapon · blueimperialfish$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.671.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.39x3m

MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violetRыBoNьKa$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$0.850.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.71x3m

AK-47 | Breakthrough (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetAinasMamma hellcase.com$1.201.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.871.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.56x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.38%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
4 Nov, 08:11 UTC	$1.20	93.38%	32
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$1.20	93.23%	32

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.0%red 0.1%Classified 0.2%industrial 7.4%blue 11.5%#d32ee6 0.5%restricted 11.4%other 1.0%violet 29.9%pink 2.0%mil spec 6.0%Mythical 7.0%#4b69ff 17.0%milspec 6.0%best hit $165 (137.3x)