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Boris

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$2.50
2.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
97.12%
EV $2.43 from 32 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.55%
24.9K openings, odds method
Variance
4.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
91.64%±7.372,871 openings
7 days
92.78%±2.7321K openings
30 days
93.55%±2.5124.9K openings
since tracking started
93.55%±2.5124.9K openings
83.5%91.5%99.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 97.04% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.04% – 96.06%, 24,867 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2,87191.64%±7.37−1.5σodds
7d21K92.78%±2.73−3.1σodds
30d24.9K93.55%±2.51−2.7σodds
All24.9K93.55%±2.51−2.7σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 1,000$121 121 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.0%2124.90.84×
★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 714$58.43 58.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.4%2934.90.83×
★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 500$47.73 47.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.9%3649.80.72×
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 400$18.34 18.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%5762.30.91×
Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Restricted1 in 250$16.30 16.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%7699.70.76×
Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 200$11.20 11.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%116124.60.93×
XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 143$6.74 6.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%167174.40.96×
P90 | Deathgaze (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 125$5.64 5.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.9%210199.41.05×
CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 111$4.52 4.52 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.7%227224.31.01×
Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec1 in 100$4.46 4.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.8%249249.21.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 100$3.68 3.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.5%270249.21.08×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 67$3.50 3.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%315373.80.84×
FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 40$2.96 2.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%503623.00.81×
AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 29$2.95 2.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.3%780872.20.89×
R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 22$2.78 2.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.2%1,1001121.40.98×
AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 22$2.65 2.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.9%1,1241121.41.00×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 20$2.59 2.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.3%1,2461245.91.00×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 20$2.48 2.48 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.1%1,2261245.90.98×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 18$2.14 2.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.8%1,4551370.51.06×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec1 in 17$1.90 1.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.7%1,5021495.11.00×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 14$1.85 1.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.3%1,7661744.31.01×
AUG | Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 14$1.74 1.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.0%1,7211744.30.99×
SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 17$1.69 1.69 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.2%1,2891495.10.86×
AUG | Eye of Zapems (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 18$1.56 1.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.5%1,3171373.00.96×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 20$1.44 1.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%1,2081245.90.97×
Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 20$1.43 1.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.9%1,2251245.90.98×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Exposure (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 25$1.40 1.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.3%966996.80.97×
M4A1-S | Solitude (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce61 in 25$1.25 1.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%1,002996.81.01×
M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 29$0.91 0.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.3%973872.21.12×
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)weapon · milspec1 in 33$0.80 0.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%116747.60.16×
MP7 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 33$0.78 0.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.0%787747.61.05×
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 33$0.72 0.72 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%762747.61.02×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AUG | Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedƸ |-|unter☯ŁŁamas Ʒ ™$2.502.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.741.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.70x
Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)weapon · violetмыкола бондаренк$2.502.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.431.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.57x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil SpecgaZiRovannayA voDka$2.502.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.901.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.76x
Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedgaZiRovannayA voDka$2.502.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$18.3418.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT7.34x
FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffBrayhon$2.502.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.962.96 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.18x
AUG | Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedGet the fuck away from me$2.502.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.741.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.70x
AUG | Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted.HoT Smety$2.502.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.741.74 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.70x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythicalsiji top$2.502.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.142.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.86x
M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffboing I guess$2.502.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.851.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.74x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Exposure (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedCyber | Moon$2.502.5 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.401.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.56x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 97.12%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
10 Nov, 08:05 UTC$2.5097.12%32
4 Nov, 14:11 UTC$2.5097.05%32
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$2.5096.97%32
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.1%Immortal 0.1%covert 0.2%restricted 30.8%Restricted 0.4%classified 3.6%pink 0.8%Mil Spec 7.0%Mythical 6.5%#4b69ff 2.5%violet 17.5%Mil Spec Grade 10.5%#8847ff 10.0%#d32ce6 4.0%milspec 3.0%blue 3.0%best hit —