Fitness Star

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$3.90

3.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

108.95%

EV $4.25 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d

108.84%

18.4K openings, odds method

Variance

4.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

23.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

109.88%±8.822,093 openings

7 days

108.41%±3.2315.6K openings

30 days

108.84%±3.0018.4K openings

since tracking started

108.84%±3.0018.4K openings

100.5%110.0%119.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,093	109.88%±8.82	+0.2σ	odds
7d	15.6K	108.41%±3.23	−0.3σ	odds
30d	18.4K	108.84%±3.00	−0.1σ	odds
All	18.4K	108.84%±3.00	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$153 153 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	18	18.5	0.98×
★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 667	$108 108 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.8%	44	27.7	1.59×
★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$66.65 66.65 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	25	36.9	0.68×
★ Navaja Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 400	$50.59 50.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	45	46.1	0.98×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 400	$42.49 42.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	39	46.1	0.85×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 222	$22.86 22.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	76	83.0	0.92×
P90 \| Tiger Pit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 200	$19.10 19.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	90	92.3	0.98×
P2000 \| Space Race (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 200	$18.59 18.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	65	92.3	0.70×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$14.27 14.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	108	110.7	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$13.60 13.6 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	101	110.7	0.91×
MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 143	$13.16 13.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.2%	128	129.2	0.99×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 143	$12.14 12.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	135	129.2	1.05×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 143	$11.51 11.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	102	129.2	0.79×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$9.40 9.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	157	147.6	1.06×
MP9 \| Music Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 111	$7.91 7.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.7%	165	166.1	0.99×
M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 63	$6.83 6.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.6%	291	295.3	0.99×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$5.10 5.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	401	369.1	1.09×
Souvenir AUG \| Carved Jade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 33	$4.32 4.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	137	553.6	0.25×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 22	$4.20 4.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	840	830.4	1.01×
SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 20	$4.07 4.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.8%	957	922.7	1.04×
MP5-SD \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 20	$3.79 3.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.5%	900	922.7	0.98×
AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 20	$3.49 3.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.1%	927	922.7	1.00×
StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$3.42 3.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	903	922.7	0.98×
R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 20	$3.37 3.37 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	918	922.7	0.99×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$3.32 3.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	1,113	1107.2	1.01×
P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$3.11 3.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.4%	1,086	1107.2	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$2.82 2.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	1,100	1107.2	0.99×
MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$2.64 2.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	1,074	1107.2	0.97×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$2.59 2.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.7%	1,111	1107.2	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$1.79 1.79 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	933	922.7	1.01×
Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$1.66 1.66 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	923	922.7	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLight	1 in 25	$1.64 1.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.5%	746	738.2	1.01×
AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$1.51 1.51 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.4%	765	738.2	1.04×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$1.32 1.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.9%	575	553.6	1.04×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.19 1.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	455	553.6	0.82×
P250 \| Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 40	$1.03 1.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.6%	474	461.3	1.03×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specCamo$3.903.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.822.82 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.72x3m

Desert Eagle | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blueLightLandin!$3.903.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.641.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.42x3m

P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · RareHaryayiar$3.903.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.031.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.26x3m

MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Field-Tested)weapon · violetHaryayiar$3.903.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.642.64 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.68x3m

StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847fffonky monky$3.903.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.423.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.88x4m

StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffBlueFour$3.903.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.423.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.88x4m

SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New)weapon · violet216578916$3.903.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.592.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.66x4m

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedArch1e.$3.903.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.321.32 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.34x4m

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedfonky monky$3.903.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.191.19 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.31x4m

P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)weapon · RareBlueFour$3.903.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.031.03 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.26x4m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 108.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 14:05 UTC	$3.90	108.95%	36
4 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$3.90	108.91%	36
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$3.90	109.62%	36

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.1%covert 0.6%gold 0.3%#d32ee6 0.5%Mil Spec Grade 8.5%restricted 17.5%classified 6.4%mil spec 7.6%industrial 5.6%Classified 4.5%blue 10.0%Uncommon 5.0%#8847ff 5.0%Industrial Grade 5.0%violet 17.0%blueLight 4.0%Rare 2.5%best hit —