C-Virus

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$4.90

4.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

106.36%

EV $5.21 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d

106.13%

16.2K openings, odds method

Variance

2.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

105.15%±7.701,906 openings

7 days

106.05%±2.8813.7K openings

30 days

106.13%±2.6416.2K openings

since tracking started

106.13%±2.6416.2K openings

97.0%105.3%113.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,906	105.15%±7.70	−0.3σ	odds
7d	13.7K	106.05%±2.88	−0.2σ	odds
30d	16.2K	106.13%±2.64	−0.2σ	odds
All	16.2K	106.13%±2.64	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$141 141 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	20	16.2	1.24×
★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · rare	1 in 667	$125 125 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	19	24.3	0.78×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 400	$62.45 62.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	40	40.5	0.99×
MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$52.27 52.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.0%	77	64.7	1.19×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$42.24 42.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	50	48.5	1.03×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$39.02 39.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.0%	56	64.7	0.87×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$18.34 18.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	65	80.9	0.80×
USP-S \| Pathfinder (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 200	$13.20 13.2 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.3%	83	80.9	1.03×
MP7 \| Powercore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$11.81 11.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	112	129.5	0.87×
Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 111	$10.15 10.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	149	145.6	1.02×
P250 \| Wingshot (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 83	$8.46 8.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	189	194.2	0.97×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 67	$6.98 6.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	241	242.7	0.99×
P2000 \| Pulse (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$6.53 6.53 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.5%	291	323.6	0.90×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$5.46 5.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	515	485.5	1.06×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 25	$5.44 5.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	680	647.3	1.05×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$5.21 5.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.0%	815	809.1	1.01×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 20	$4.84 4.84 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.6%	768	809.1	0.95×
AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$4.78 4.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.5%	973	970.9	1.00×
MP9 \| Dry Season (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 17	$4.75 4.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.5%	1,003	970.9	1.03×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$4.75 4.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.9%	1,087	1051.8	1.03×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$4.34 4.34 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.8%	1,110	1132.7	0.98×
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$4.24 4.24 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.7%	1,122	1132.7	0.99×
MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$4.09 4.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	954	970.9	0.98×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$3.67 3.67 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.2%	1,002	970.9	1.03×
Galil AR \| Kami (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 17	$3.40 3.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.9%	972	970.9	1.00×
Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 17	$3.16 3.16 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	959	970.9	0.99×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$2.88 2.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	793	809.1	0.98×
M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$2.30 2.3 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.0%	689	728.2	0.95×
MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$1.06 1.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	671	647.3	1.04×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$1.01 1.01 HOTPIZZA_POINT	0.8%	677	647.3	1.05×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalNoru$4.904.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.882.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.59x2m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Malachite (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffImmortalSquash$4.904.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.465.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.11x2m

MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalNoru$4.904.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$1.061.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.22x2m

Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedImmortalSquash$4.904.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.754.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.97x2m

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythicalkrapir_TROVO$4.904.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.215.21 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.06x2m

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Teclu Burner (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythicalkrapir_TROVO$4.904.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.882.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.59x2m

MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)weapon · MythicalA S P Ξ C T$4.904.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.094.09 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.83x5m

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Malachite (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847fffat pinguin$4.904.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.465.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.11x5m

MP9 | Dry Season (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer★ Quantum$4.904.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.754.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.97x5m

Galil AR | Kami (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffA S P Ξ C T$4.904.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.403.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 106.36%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$4.90	106.36%	30

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.1%rare 0.1%restricted 31.8%classified 7.4%Industrial Grade 0.5%industrial 0.9%violet 1.2%mil spec 6.0%#8847ff 3.0%Rare 4.0%Mythical 27.0%consumer 6.0%#4b69ff 6.0%Legendary 6.0%best hit —