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Devil

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price
$5.95
5.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT
Advertised RTP
93.10%
EV $5.54 from 31 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.93%
14.2K openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
30.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
90.32%±5.551,669 openings
7 days
92.44%±2.0712K openings
30 days
91.93%±1.9014.2K openings
since tracking started
91.93%±1.9014.2K openings
84.0%90.3%96.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,66990.32%±5.55−1.0σodds
7d12K92.44%±2.07−0.6σodds
30d14.2K91.93%±1.90−1.2σodds
All14.2K91.93%±1.90−1.2σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Bowie Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 1,000$132 132 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%1114.20.77×
★ Bowie Knife | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 667$78.10 78.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%2021.30.94×
★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 286$45.35 45.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.9%4549.70.90×
StatTrak™ Negev | Power Loader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 222$37.06 37.06 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%6563.91.02×
M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 182$30.44 30.44 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%7878.11.00×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 167$27.59 27.59 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.0%8085.20.94×
Tec-9 | Toxic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 125$18.91 18.91 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.7%105113.70.92×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 118$16.38 16.38 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%127120.81.05×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 105$12.47 12.47 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.1%119135.00.88×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Parallax (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 83$11.27 11.27 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.4%142170.50.83×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 50$7.78 7.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%304284.11.07×
AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 48$7.46 7.46 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.8%303298.31.02×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink1 in 37$6.86 6.86 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%367383.60.96×
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 25$6.26 6.26 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.5%597568.31.05×
SG 553 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 22$6.25 6.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.1%641639.31.00×
StatTrak™ AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 22$6.11 6.11 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.1%676653.51.03×
AUG | Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 21$5.87 5.87 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.0%652667.70.98×
Tec-9 | Isaac (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 21$5.75 5.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT5.0%702681.91.03×
Galil AR | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 20$5.35 5.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.8%734710.31.03×
MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 20$5.15 5.15 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.6%719710.31.01×
CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 17$4.49 4.49 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.9%839852.40.98×
Souvenir MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 17$4.14 4.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.5%840852.40.99×
Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 17$3.73 3.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT4.0%859852.41.01×
MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 17$3.43 3.43 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.7%839852.40.98×
MP9 | Old Roots (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon1 in 17$3.07 3.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT3.3%808852.40.95×
MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 20$2.89 2.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.6%728710.31.02×
Souvenir M4A4 | Converter (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Rare1 in 20$2.76 2.76 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.5%699710.30.98×
MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 20$2.45 2.45 HOTPIZZA_POINT2.2%721710.31.01×
M4A1-S | Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 28$1.80 1.8 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.2%517511.51.01×
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 33$1.70 1.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%449426.21.05×
MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 33$1.61 1.61 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.9%421426.20.99×
Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)weapon · violet40kg kid$5.955.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.733.73 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.63x
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedFeaPont$5.955.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.787.78 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.31x
SG 553 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialCheri Lady$5.955.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.256.25 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.05x
MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalFoex$5.955.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT$2.892.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.49x
Tec-9 | Isaac (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specCheri Lady$5.955.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.755.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.97x
MP9 | Old Roots (Factory New)weapon · UncommonFoex$5.955.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.073.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.52x
Tec-9 | Isaac (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specCheri Lady$5.955.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.755.75 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.97x
Galil AR | Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareFoex$5.955.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.355.35 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.90x
MP9 | Old Roots (Factory New)weapon · UncommonCOLLAPSE FANGAY$5.955.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.073.07 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.52x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial GradeCOLLAPSE FANGAY$5.955.95 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.144.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.70x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.10%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC$5.9593.10%31
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%covert knife 0.3%restricted 21.1%mil spec 6.2%classified 6.2%Mythical 6.0%Restricted 1.2%pink 14.4%Classified 4.0%industrial 4.5%Rare 10.0%violet 11.0%Industrial Grade 6.0%Uncommon 6.0%#8847ff 3.0%best hit —