Agent Johnny

A case on Hotpizza.gg (Premium cases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Hotpizza.gg's own item price converted from hotpizza point at the rate on the site page.

Price

$6.85

6.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT

Advertised RTP

101.14%

EV $6.93 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d

98.36%

13.8K openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.29%±7.431,649 openings

7 days

98.47%±2.8111.6K openings

30 days

98.36%±2.5713.8K openings

since tracking started

98.36%±2.5713.8K openings

91.0%99.3%107.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,649	99.29%±7.43	−0.5σ	odds
7d	11.6K	98.47%±2.81	−1.7σ	odds
30d	13.8K	98.36%±2.57	−1.9σ	odds
All	13.8K	98.36%±2.57	−1.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 1,000	$163 163 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.4%	12	13.8	0.87×
★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 667	$123 123 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	20	20.7	0.97×
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Immortal	1 in 500	$100 100 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	21	27.6	0.76×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 400	$95.81 95.81 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.5%	32	34.5	0.93×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 250	$47.89 47.89 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	57	55.3	1.03×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$44.40 44.4 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.2%	62	69.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 167	$31.68 31.68 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.7%	76	82.9	0.92×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 143	$28.02 28.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.8%	89	96.7	0.92×
P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 125	$16.88 16.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	91	110.5	0.82×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 111	$14.10 14.1 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	125	124.3	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$13.02 13.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.9%	125	138.1	0.90×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 83	$12.41 12.41 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.1%	170	165.8	1.03×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 50	$9.90 9.9 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	280	276.3	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 37	$8.63 8.63 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.4%	64	373.0	0.17×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$8.57 8.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.9%	533	552.5	0.96×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$7.98 7.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.8%	710	690.6	1.03×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 20	$7.57 7.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.5%	669	690.6	0.97×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$6.14 6.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.9%	759	759.7	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 18	$5.92 5.92 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.7%	759	759.7	1.00×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 17	$5.88 5.88 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.1%	817	828.8	0.99×
Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 15	$5.71 5.71 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.4%	952	897.8	1.06×
UMP-45 \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$5.04 5.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.1%	905	966.9	0.94×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$4.70 4.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT	5.1%	986	1036.0	0.95×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 14	$4.22 4.22 HOTPIZZA_POINT	4.3%	988	966.9	1.02×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 15	$3.83 3.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.6%	905	897.8	1.01×
Glock-18 \| Ironwork (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$3.56 3.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT	3.1%	141	828.8	0.17×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$3.31 3.31 HOTPIZZA_POINT	2.9%	862	828.8	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$2.12 2.12 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.8%	838	828.8	1.01×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 20	$1.42 1.42 HOTPIZZA_POINT	1.0%	725	690.6	1.05×

Values are Hotpizza.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from hotpizza:api/data, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedbangalore$6.856.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.045.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.74x3m

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6Haryayiar$6.856.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.833.83 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.56x3m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffHaryayiar$6.856.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT$4.704.7 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.69x3m

StatTrak™ AWP | Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedAlice 😻$6.856.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.987.98 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.16x7m

Glock-18 | Ironwork (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareAlice 😻$6.856.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.563.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.52x7m

UMP-45 | Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiediBurta$6.856.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT$5.045.04 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.74x9m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wraiths (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeiBurta$6.856.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT$7.577.57 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.11x9m

Desert Eagle | Midnight Storm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrialfonky monky$6.856.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT$13.0213.02 HOTPIZZA_POINT1.90x12m

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restrictedfonky monky$6.856.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT$6.146.14 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.90x12m

Glock-18 | Ironwork (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rarefonky monky$6.856.85 HOTPIZZA_POINT$3.563.56 HOTPIZZA_POINT0.52x12m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 101.14%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 08:05 UTC	$6.85	101.14%	29
3 Nov, 07:29 UTC	$6.85	100.84%	29
3 Nov, 04:28 UTC	$6.85	100.54%	29

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.1%covert 0.4%Immortal 0.2%uncommon 5.4%classified 13.1%Covert 0.6%#d32ee6 7.3%industrial 1.0%Mythical 9.2%Uncommon 2.7%restricted 16.5%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%Legendary 11.5%consumer 6.5%#8847ff 7.5%pink 7.0%Rare 6.0%best hit —